This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
The continuation of the Israeli-Iranian ceasefire and the slowdown in U.S. inflation were observed at the same time,Global markets remain risk-onThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.26%. The dollar index sank to a three-year low in the low 97s, and money is being reallocated to tech and commodities.
equity
| area | index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | S&P 500 | 6,141.02 | +0.80% | AI and financial led highs |
| United States of America | Nasdaq Composite | 20,167.91 | +0.97% | 20,000 units established with continued semiconductor purchases. |
| United States of America | the Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 43,386.84 | +0.94% | Older large-cap stocks follow suit. |
| Europe | Stoxx Europe 600 | 543.63 | +0.16% | Buying in consumption-related sectors due to low oil prices |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 (closing price on 27th) | 40,018.65* | +3.2% | Driven by semiconductors and automobiles |
Funded by.Generating AI Supply Chain and U.S. Large Tech.Energy stocks are lagging behind, concentrated in the
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | compared to previous day | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.26% | -3bp | Core PCE Anticipated Hedge Buying Dominance |
| Germany | 2.59% | +3bp | Yields rise on receding economic concerns |
| Japan | 1.44% | +1bp | Limited upside due to super-long-term zone caution |
Credit spreads are in stable territory as lower interest rates and higher equity prices continue to coexist.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- Dollar/YenJPY: stalled around 144.3, US interest rates falling and yen buying
- Euro/U.S. dollarEUR/JPY: Rising to the 1.1740 level, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a bottoming out of the European economy
- Dollar Index (DXY): 97.3, the lowest in 3 years
commodity
| goods | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $65.52/bbl | -0.6% | Middle East risk premium reduction |
| Brent crude oil | $67.73/bbl | -0.5% | same as above |
| Natural gas (HH) | $3.739/MMBtu | +6% | Rebound due to hot wave demand |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,348/oz | +0.2% | Weaker dollar and lower real interest rates |
| Copper (LME cash) | $10,051/t | -0.6% | Concerns about slowing demand in China |
crypto
- bitcoin$107,367 (+1.2%) - Institutional investors continue to push the market
- ethereum$2,442 (+0.8%) - underpinned by expanded Layer 2 adoption
Crypto assets also moved higher, reflecting improved risk tolerance.
Macro Event Focus
- 6/28 (Sat) Preliminary Eurozone HICP: 1.9% y/y expected - buy euro if inflation re-accelerates
- 6/28 (Sat) Tokyo CPI (June)Headline: 3.1% Observation - Influences BOJ's October Rate Hike Speculation
- 7/1 (Tue) OPEC+ JMMCPros and Cons of August Production Increase - Crude Oil Volatility Factors
- 7/1 (Tue) U.S. ISM Manufacturing50: If recovery is 50, economic sentiment improves.
- 7/2 (Wed) FOMC Minutes (June): Confirming the depth of the interest rate cut discussion
- 7/3 (Thu) U.S. June employment statistics: NFP +115k forecast - Determines the direction of the dollar and interest rates
Insight Summary
In an environment of slowing inflation and a weakening dollar,Stocks > Bonds > CashWe would like to maintain our risk appetite for
- Generation AI and semiconductor-related push-The core strategy is to concentrate funds in the U.S. and Japan.
- Gradual inclusion of U.S. and German 10-year bonds-Achieve both yield and portfolio stability.
- Rebalance energy stocks from neutral to slightly bullish-Looking for supply/demand improvement after OPEC+.
- Hold gold at about 5% and bitcoin at 1-2%.-Both the risk of dollar depreciation and volatility measures.
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