This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
outlook
Markets Receive Reports of Iran-Israel CeasefireRisk assets rebound, energy markets plunge, bonds and gold firmThe U.S. While the U.S. tech-led rally continues, the dollar's strength pauses as concerns about inflation recede due to the sharp drop in crude oil. Political uncertainty in Europe, while the yen continues to weaken in Japan and stocks rise. Funds remain selective in tech and commodities, while diversifying into safe-haven assets. Red shrinkage.
general mood
Geopolitical risks reduced due to the Middle East cease-fire speculation; U.S. stocks rebound with S&P 500 +1.0% day-on-day and Nasdaq +0.9%. Crude oil plunges to $70.65 Brent, risk indicator VIX declines. The dollar weakened against major currencies, with the yen hovering around ¥146. Bond yields narrowed while bond spreads remained high at 4.40% in the US, 2.52% in Germany, and 1.41% in Japan.
equity
- United States of America: S&P 500 +1.0%, tech and semiconductor led buybacks. Energy stocks fell as oil plunged.
- Japan: Nikkei225 leaned 38,779 to 38,949 yen, continuing to rise on yen weakness and AI-related expectations.
- Europe: STOXX 600 536.6 (-0.01%), defense stocks soft, but tech steady and lower.
- Hong Kong, China: Shanghai Composite slightly higher, tug of war between stimulus hopes and real estate concerns. Hang Seng Index continues to rise on tech support measures.
- cash flow: Concentration of funds in AI, military, EV materials, copper-related, and switching from beta ETFs to thematic ETFs in progress.
Bonds Bonds
| Country/Region | 10-year bond yield | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.40% (4.40%) | Risk-on due to ceasefire reassurance, but early rate cut speculation recedes |
| Germany | 2.52% (2.52%) | ECB maintaining dovish stance, room for slight decline in yields |
| Japan | 1.41% (1.41%) | Core CPI at 3% level strengthens speculation of additional interest rate hikes |
Demand for safe assets is diversifying into gold and short-term government bonds, and the concentration in U.S. Treasuries is receding.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- Dollar/Yen: Around 146.15, remaining yen sell-off due to higher US interest rates and Japan-US real interest rate differentials.
- EUR/USD: 1.1548, risk-on euro buying prevails due to ceasefire.
- Dollar/renminbi (CNH): Near 7.25, yuan remains firm on additional stimulus measures.
as a wholeDollar pauses, resource-rich currencies and the euro rebound, only the yen softensThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
commodity
| goods | Price | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil | 70.65 $/bbl | ▲1.2% | Risk premium stripped by ceasefire reports |
| WTI crude oil | 68.51 $/bbl | ▲7.2% | Iran retaliation limited, supply/demand concerns receding |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,354 $/oz | ▲0.4% | Strong dollar pressure also supports geopolitical uncertainty |
| Copper (LME3M) | 9,667 $/t | +0.35% | Low inventory levels and AI-related demand |
| Natural Gas (NYMEX) | 3.896 $/MMBtu | +0.05% | Summer Demand Expectations and Inventory Statistics |
crypto
- bitcoin: 106,000 near $, +0.9% in 24 hours. Fund inflows continue on ceasefire and US deregulation expectations.
- ethereum: 2,244 $, short-term rebound but resistance on the upside at 2,380 $.
Volatility declined to the same level as equities as institutional investors continued to inflow funds.
Macro Event Focus
- 6/24 U.S. and Eurozone Preliminary PMI: Business confidence turning point in the manufacturing and service sectors confirmed.
- 6/25 meter (i.e. a gauge) New home sales(May): Measuring the impact of higher interest rates
- 6/26 meter (i.e. a gauge) Durable Goods Orders(May): Direction of corporate capital investment
- 6/27 meter (i.e. a gauge) PCE deflator(May): Fed's price target indicator; if core slows, rate cut speculation resurfaces
- 6/27 ECB Forum in Sintra: Policy Clues at Panel of Major Bank Presidents
Insight Summary
- Tech + Copper + AI related preferenceRisk-on reversion due to ceasefire; overweight to generative AI and EV materials stocks is effective.
- Diversification of bond durationsThe 4.4% level for 10-year U.S. bonds secures real yields. We recommend investing in cross-bonds by taking advantage of the narrowing spread between Germany and Japan.
- Reduced hedging to take advantage of low oil prices: At the Brent $70 level, energy stocks are considering profit taking and accelerating sector rotation.
- FX Strategies: Yen is around ¥146 with limited room for volatility upside. Intervention alert is down to below 145 yen. Buy on the push if the euro 1.15 level is maintained.
- cryptodispersion: Hold BTC and ETH within 5% of the portfolio to enjoy the benefits of lower volatility and hedging functionality.
Market Insights Infographic
June 24, 2025: Ceasefire reports improve market sentiment
Key Indicators Dashboard
Geopolitical risks have receded on speculation of a ceasefire in the Middle East. While risk assets are being bought, oil prices have fallen sharply, changing the overall mood of the market. The following key indicators are emblematic of current market sentiment.
S&P 500
5,530.0
+1.0%
Brent Crude Oil
$70.65
-1.2%
Dollar/Yen
146.15
dollar strength lull
Stock Market: High-tech-driven selective buying
Global stock markets rebounded, but in very different ways. In the U.S., high-tech and semiconductor-related sectors led the market, while the energy sector declined as oil prices plunged, clearly concentrating funds on themes such as AI and EVs.
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Dollar Loses Some of its Strength and Yen Softens
The rise in U.S. long-term interest rates has slowed due to receding inflation fears, but they remain high. The dollar's appreciation has weakened in the foreign exchange market against the backdrop of interest rate differentials between Japan and Europe, and the euro has been bought on risk-on mood, while the yen has remained soft.
EUR/USD
1.1548 ▲
Dollar/Yen
146.15 →directional marker or indicator
Commodity Markets: Crude Oil Plunge and Copper Rise
Price polarization is evident in the commodities market. Crude oil has fallen sharply as the premium for geopolitical risk has been removed. On the other hand, copper prices are rising on the back of AI and EV-related demand, and gold is firming up, supported by demand for safe assets.
| goods | Price | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | $68.51 | -7.2% | Supply and demand concerns recede |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,354 | -0.4% | Tug of war between geopolitical uncertainty and dollar strength pressures |
| copper | $9,667 | +0.35% | AI/EV-related demand |
Focus: Important economic indicators are in focus
Market attention will shift from geopolitical risks to economic indicators that will once again determine the direction of monetary policy. In particular, the U.S. inflation indicator (PCE deflator), which will be released over the weekend, is the biggest focus as it will influence expectations for a Fed rate cut.
6/24: Preliminary PMI for the U.S. and Eurozone
Confirmation of business conditions in the manufacturing and service sectors
6/26: U.S. Durable Goods Orders
Provide direction for companies' capital investment.
6/27: U.S. PCE deflator
The Fed's emphasis on price indexes influences its rate-cut expectations
English
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