This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
Geopolitical risks recede with reports of a ceasefire in the Middle East,Return of funds to risk assetsU.S. Treasury yields settled, albeit at a high level, and the dollar weakened slightly. Inflationary pressures eased as oil plunged,Early interest rate cut speculation resurfacesHigh-tech-driven U.S. stock market gains and Bitcoin's recovery to the $100,000 level boosted sentiment, while safe-haven gold paused in its climb.
equity
| area | Index and closing price | rate of return | background | cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | S&P500 6,092 / Nasdaq Composite 19,913 | +1.1% / +1.4% | Oil plunge and ceasefire expectations pushed tech all the way higher | Buying concentrated in megatech and semiconductors |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 38,791 | +1.14% | U.S. stocks follow. Driven by semiconductor-related companies even with a strong yen. | Buybacks by short-term overseas sources |
| Hong Kong (China) | Hansen 24,177 | +2.06% | Tech-led high on expectations of Chinese economic stimulus | Acceleration of inflows of mainland Chinese funds |
| Europe | STOXX Europe 600 541 | +1.1% | Risk appetite due to ceasefire reports and stimulus speculation | Rotation to economically sensitive stocks |
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond 4.34% (-4bp) - repurchase on lower inflation expectations
- German 10-year bond 2.55% (-3bp) - Eurozone CPI slowdown expected
- Japan 10-year bond 1.42% (+1bp) - Wary of a BOJ operational cut
- The preference for safe assets has eased, but we continue to see room for yields to fall. Diversification into 2-year Treasuries and less concentration in U.S. Treasuries.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- dollar-yen 145.07 (▼0.8%) - US dollar softness due to lower US interest rates and sharp drop in crude oil triggered yen repurchase
- Eurodollar 1.1627 (-1%) - Euro rallies on European political risk recession
- Chinese Yuan Dollar 7.1725 (▼0.2%) - yuan firm on PBoC funding
commodity
| list of articles | current price | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil | $67.70/bbl | ▼6.1% | Middle East ceasefire + slowing Chinese demand |
| WTI crude oil | $63 units / bbl | ▼ About 6% | Increase in U.S. inventories |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,384/oz | ▼0.7% | Risk-on and shrinking flight demand |
| copper | $4.89/lb | ▲0.3% | Buy on China Infrastructure Expectations |
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | $2.90/MMBtu | ▲9.4% | Temperature rise forecast and supply adjustment |
crypto
- bitcoin 105,417 USD (-4.31 TP3T) - Ceasefire reports revived risk appetite, ETF inflows continue
- ethereum 2,444 USD (-1.3%) - Expansion of L2 adoption and supply compression expected after Shanghai
The high beta altcoin was also 5-10% higher,Notable improvement in risk toleranceThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro Event Focus
- 6/26 U.S. Q1 GDP FixedRevision: ▲→Sideways expected. If it is a downward swing, expectations of interest rate cuts will accelerate.
- 6/27 U.S. PCE Deflator: Headline 3.0% expected to slow to mid 3.0% range. Core decline is the key point.
- 6/27 Euro Area June CPI Preliminary Report: 2.41 TP3T forecast y/y. Falling energy prices are a factor in the push down.
- 6/27 OPEC+ Ministerial MeetingThe supply is expected to be maintained even with the additional production cut talks.
- 6/28 Japan May Unemployment Rate & BOJ Minutes: Explore wage trends and the temperature of policy normalization.
Insight Summary
- High-tech and quality growth stock shift: Momentum continues with the U.S. NASDAQ maintaining a high level.
- Plunge in crude oil x soft gold = lower inflation scenariobecame predominant,Picking up the push on the price of long-term U.S. Treasury bondsis odd.
- On the other hand, if the dollar softensEuro-Yen Carry UnwindingAssumption.
- Commodities take advantage of the mismatch of falling oil vs. base metal firmness,Long copper/short crude pair strategyfunctions.
- Crypto is an indicator of whether Bitcoin can establish the $100,000 level.Short-term push-buy stanceBut room for fluctuation depending on PCE.
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