This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
While the maintenance of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and concerns about the declining independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve are intermingling,Global markets continue to be risk-onThe S&P 500 was on the verge of an all-time high at 6,141.02, the Nasdaq Composite broke through the 20,000-point level, and the U.S. long-term interest rate fell to the 4.25% level. The dollar index sank to a three-year low in the 97s, and combined with low oil prices, inflation fears are receding, while buying spills over into gold and crypto assets in a complex market.
equity
| area | index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | S&P 500 | 6,141.02 | +0.80% | AI-related and financial-driven highs |
| United States of America | Nasdaq Composite | 20,167.91 | +0.97% | Semiconductor rally continues and 20,000 units are established. |
| United States of America | the Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 43,386.84 | +0.94% | Older large-cap stocks follow suit. |
| Europe | Stoxx Europe 600 | 538.75 | +0.30% | Travel and Utilities Favor Low Oil Prices |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 (closing price on 26th) | 38,790.56 | +1.14% | Semiconductors and financials led buying |
Funded by.Generating AI Supply Chainand concentrated in large U.S. tech, with energy stocks relatively late to the game.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | compared to previous day | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.245% | -4bp | Buying dominance due to slowing inflation |
| Germany | 2.55% | -1bp | Preference for safe assets due to concerns about economic slowdown |
| Japan | 1.43% | +1bp | Limited room for upside due to BOJ's ultra-long-term zone caution |
The coexistence of lower interest rates and higher equity prices will continue, and yield-hunt-type flows will strengthen.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- Dollar/YenJPY: hovering around 144, US interest rates falling and the yen buying
- Euro/U.S. dollar: 1.17 level, supported by a weaker dollar and ECB dovish retreat.
- Dollar Index (DXY)97.3, the lowest level in 3 years.
commodity
| goods | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $65.24/bbl | ▲0.3% | Premium reduction due to supply-demand balance observation and ceasefire |
| Brent crude oil | $67.73/bbl | ▲0.3% | same as above |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,348/oz | +0.2% | Solid with a weaker dollar and lower real interest rates |
| Copper (LME3M) | $10,115/t | +3.1% | Tight Inventories and U.S. Tariff Easing Observations |
crypto
- bitcoin$107,372 (+1.3%) - institutional investors continued to buy at the highest level since the beginning of the year
- ethereum$2,426 (+1.4%) - Supply and demand improved due to expanded Layer 2 adoption
Crypto assets serve as an indicator of risk tolerance and keep pace with equity prices.
Macro Event Focus
- 6/27 (Fri) U.S. May PCE Deflator: Core PCE forecast 2.5%. Additional dollar depreciation possible if downside.
- 6/28 (Sat) Preliminary Eurozone HICPInflation: If inflation is maintained at 1.9%, the ECB's additional easing will recede.
- 6/28 (Sat) Tokyo CPI (June)Headline: Headline 3.1%, underlying strength influences BOJ's October rate hike speculation.
- Tuesday, July 1 OPEC+Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)Focus: July production increase or not, crude oil volatility factor
Insight Summary
- With a softening inflation outlook and easing geopolitical tensionsStocks > Bonds > CashRisk appetite in the market is predominant.
- Generating AI and semiconductor-related pushback-Core strategy in the Nasdaq highs phase.
- Gradual inclusion of U.S. and German 10-year bonds-Securing yield and portfolio stability.
- Crude oil stocks raised to Neutral weighting-Targeting rebalancing after the OPEC+ event.
- Maintain gold at about 5% of portfolio, bitcoin 1-2% satellite-Dollar depreciation hedging and alternatives diversification.
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