This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Market Insights Overall Mood
The shortened trading week before U.S. Independence Day isHigh-tech-driven U.S. stocks at daily highsand the S&P 500 closed at 6,279.36 (+1.2% for the week). The dollar index held steady lower around 97,Long-term interest rates diverged with the U.S. up, Germany down, and Japan upThe market is expected to remain strong. While concerns about resource inflation receded, funds diversified into real and digital assets such as gold and bitcoin,Week of selective risk-on continuesThe first time this happened was in 1983, when the company was founded.
equity
| index | 6/30 Closing price | 7/3 Closing price | Weekly change | background |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,204.95 | 6,279.36 | +1.2% | Generated AI and semiconductor buying led |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,369.73 | 20,601.10 | +1.1% | NVIDIA market capitalization approaching $4 trillion |
| the Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,094.77 | 44,828.53 | +1.7% | Cyclical demand in defense and finance |
| Nikkei 225 | 40,487.39 | 39,785.90 | -1.7% | Profit selling prevails due to slowdown in yen depreciation |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 541.37 | 543.76 | +0.4% | Defense stocks up, energy mixed |
cash flow
In the U.S., funds are concentrated in AI semiconductors and cybersecurity. On the other hand, European defense stocks are firm on defense demand expectations. Japanese stocks paused as the yen weakened.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield 6/30 | 10-year yield 7/3 | Directions. | explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.23% | 4.35% | ↑directional marker or indicator | Strong employment numbers set back interest rate cut speculation |
| Germany | 2.60% | 2.58% | ↓arrow (mark or symbol) | Expectations of slowing inflation in Europe |
| Japan | 1.43% | 1.45% | ↑directional marker or indicator | BOJ Interest rates rise on speculation of reduced purchases |
Preference for safe assets is limited, with a mix of selling U.S. Treasuries and buying German bonds.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- dollar indexThe price of the stock was 96.88 → 97.18 (a small rebound).
- USD/JPY144.04 → 144.93 (yen depreciation in progress)
- EUR/USDThe price is struggling in the low 1.18s (almost unchanged for the week).
A pause in dollar selling due to rising U.S. interest rates but limited directional movement due to overlapping risk appetite.
commodity
| goods | 6/30 Closing price | 7/3 Closing price | Weekly change | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) | 65.11 | 67.00 | +2.9% | Decrease in inventories, OPEC+ Strengthening of monitoring |
| Brent crude oil | 67.61 | 68.80 | +1.8% | Middle East Cease-Fire Maintained, but Supply Concerns Remain |
| Gold ($/oz) | 3,307.70 | 3,342.90 | +1.1% | Lingering Dollar Weakness and Hedging Demand |
| Copper ($/lb) | 5.0825 | 5.1415 | +1.2% | Rebound in anticipation of Chinese stimulus package |
crypto
- bitcoin: 107,171 → 109,600 (+2.3% per week)
- ethereum: 2,486 → 2,591 (Weekly +4.2%)
Capital returned to risk assets due to rising stocks and lingering dollar weakness. Major alts also moved higher with them.
Macro Event Focus (~7/08)
- 7/05 OPEC+ JMMCThe Future of the Talks on Additional Production Cuts
- 7/08 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIInterest Rate Observation Fluctuates Depending on Service Business Conditions
- 7/08 China PPI & CPIDisinflation will continue, affecting resource prices.
- 7/08-09 FOMC MinutesSeptember interest rate cut: confirming the temperature of expectations for a September rate cut
Insight Summary
- U.S. stocks at all-time highs, but valuations head higher as interest rates riseBeware of large tech bias risk. Note the risk of large tech bias.
- Bonds are sold in the U.S. and bought in EuropeCross-Core StrategyInterest rate differential reversal is effective in
- Commodities are limited to crude oil upside,Picking up gold and copper pushThick real hedging around the
- The exchange rate isOverheated short yenCaution: a return to the ¥144-145 level and the dollar index is likely to stall in the low 97s.
- Crypto's upside depends on US regulatory discussions.Holding ratio of about 2-3% in a diversified portfoliois appropriate.
Market Insights Infographic
Analysis Date: 2025/06/30 - 07/03
Overall Mood of the Week
In the shortened trading week before U.S. Independence Day, tech-driven U.S. stocks hit new daily highs. Long-term interest rates were directionally divided among major countries, and funds were also diversified into real and digital assets. A selective risk-on mood continued during the week.
U.S. high-tech stocks hit new highs
The generated AI and semiconductor sectors led the market, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching new daily highs.
Bifurcation of long-term interest rates
Interest rates in the U.S. rose, while those in Germany fell and those in Japan rose, reflecting the monetary policy outlook in each country.
Selective Risk On
Scheduling was limited even within the stock market. Money also went to alternative assets such as gold and bitcoin.
Trends in Major Stock Indices
This week, global equity markets showed different movements in different countries and sectors. The graph below shows the weekly percentage change in each major index. While the U.S. market performed well, the Japanese market was hit by profit-taking.
Trends by Asset Class
Detailed trends for the equity, fixed income, currency, commodities, and crypto markets. Click on the tabs to view an analysis of each asset class.
Upcoming Featured Macro Events
Over the next week, the following economic indicators and events may influence market direction. In particular, the OPEC+ meeting and U.S. economic indicators will be in focus.
OPEC+ JMMC
Attention will be focused on the future of the additional production cut talks.
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI / China PPI & CPI
U.S. service sector business confidence and price trends in China may affect interest rates and resource prices.
FOMC Meeting Agenda
This is an important factor in confirming the temperature within the Fed for a rate cut in September.
Investment Insights Summary
These are the key investment strategies related to each asset class based on this week's market trends. We provide perspectives on exploring opportunities while being mindful of risk management.
🏢Cautionary Note on U.S. Stocks
Stock prices are at all-time highs, but rising interest rates may weigh on valuations. Excessive concentration in large high-tech stocks should be avoided.
⚖️Fixed Income Strategies
A "cross-score strategy" of selling U.S. Treasuries, whose interest rates are rising, and buying European bonds, whose interest rates are falling, may be effective.
🥇Commodity Strategy
The upside in oil prices is expected to be limited. A possible portfolio hedging strategy would be to buy more gold and copper during price adjustments.
💱exchange strategy
Selling positions in yen are overheated; profit-taking will likely occur in the 144-145 yen per dollar range. The dollar index may slow its upward momentum in the low 97s.
🔗Crypto Strategy
Future prices will depend on the U.S. regulatory debate. Considering the overall risk of the portfolio, it is reasonable to diversify the portfolio with a ratio of about 2-3%.
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