This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks areLack of direction amid smoldering caution about tariff risksThe The Dow and S&P 500 finished slightly lower, while the Nasdaq finished slightly higher.The 10-year Treasury yield continued to rise to 4.42%, with rising yields restraining stocks higher. The dollar was slightly weaker against the euro while settling at ¥146 against the yen. Crude oil rebounded on lower inventories,Copper hits all-time high on 50% tariff observationSentiment. Sentiment is that "high resource prices will support the market, despite the tariff alert.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | Daily change from previous day (pt, %) | One word background |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,240.76 | ▼ 165.60 (-0.37 %) | Tariff-wary selling in industrial stocks |
| S&P 500 | 6,225.52 | ▼4.46 (-0.07 %) | Capital goods and financials are heavy |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,418.46 | (+5.95) (+0.03 %) | Megatech is firm. |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,688.81 | -101.13 (+0.26 %) | Continued growth with a tailwind of yen depreciation |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 545.71 | (+2.21) (+0.41 %) | Supported by Resources and Health Care |
Fund Flow: Diversification of U.S. large-cap stocks → continued shift to European and resource stocks.
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond 4.42% (+9bp) - Yields rise on tariff inflation alert
- German 10-year bond 2.64% (+4bp) - Selling dominated as risk appetite recovered
- Japan 10-year bond 1.49% (+2.5bp) - Yields rose on yen weakness, but upside limited by BOJ buying
The preference for safe assets is receding, and rising real interest rates are weighing on stocks.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.06 | +0.25% | High U.S. interest rates & risk aversion receding |
| EUR/USD | 1.1806 | +0.8% | Buy euro as German long-term interest rates rise |
| USD/CNY | 7.18 | +0.1% | Small fluctuations due to PBOC's stable intervention |
The yen continues to sell despite a lull in the dollar's strength.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | main factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $68.33/bbl | +0.59% | Expectations for Inventory Decline and OPEC Outlook |
| Brent crude oil | $70.15/bbl | +0.82% | Ditto + Middle East risk |
| Natural gas (HH) | $3.379/MMBtu | -1.7% | Sluggish demand outlook |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,312.80/oz | -0.9% | Selling as U.S. interest rates rise |
| silver | $36.875/oz | +0.4% | industrial demand-associated buying |
| copper | $5.6450/lb | +13% | Soared on Trump's 50% tariff announcement. |
crypto
- bitcoin $108,824 (-1.1%) - Adjustment due to higher dollar interest rates
- ethereum $2,592.9 (-0.8%) - ETH ETF expectations continue but with heavy upside
Risk tolerance is slightly lower, while major stocks remain high.
Macro Event Focus
- 7/09 (Wed.) FOMC Minutes (June 17-18) Released - Discussions following rate unchanged scrutinized
- July 10 (Thursday) China's June CPI and PPI released - confirming deflationary pressure and room for additional easing
- July 10 (Thursday) OPEC International Seminar: World Oil Outlook 2025 Open - Supply and Demand Outlook Affects Crude Oil Prices
- Friday, 7/11 UK Monthly GDP and Trade Statistics for May - Verification of Europe's Economic Resilience
Insight Summary
- portfolio suggestion: Slightly lower weighting of large-cap U.S. stocks,Commodities and Japanese and European stocks on topThe U.S. Treasury is a good place to buy bonds in installments when yields are rising. Long-term U.S. Treasuries can be effectively bought in installments when yields are rising.
- Softness in U.S. stocks and rising bond yieldsreflects **"stagflation fears "** due to tariff risk.
- Funded by.Commodities (especially copper) and some European and Japanese stocksShift to
- The exchange rate isDollar strength pauses/Yen continues to weakenThe following is a list of some of the most important factors to consider when investing in dollar-denominated assets. Consider currency hedging when holding dollar-denominated assets.
Market Insights Infographic
general mood
While U.S. stocks lacked direction due to smoldering tariff risks, resources were highlighted as copper hit an all-time high on 50% tariff speculation. With rising bond yields limiting the upside in equities, the market was a mix of "risk caution" and "inflation/resources" themes.
Equity (Shares)
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
cash flow
Diversification of U.S. large-cap stocks → Continued shift to European and resource stocks.
bond
Market Overview
The preference for safe assets is receding, and rising real interest rates are weighing on stocks.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
Market Overview
The yen continues to sell despite a lull in the dollar's strength.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
Crypto (crypto assets)
Market Overview
Risk tolerance is slightly lower, while major stocks remain high.
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