This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
Major U.S. stocks were slightly higher, with the NASDAQ reaching new daily highs, and risk money flowed into large tech and resource stocks to a limited extent. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly to 4.36%, and both stocks and bonds were strong. The dollar settled in the low ¥146's against the yen and was slightly lower against the euro; WTI fell over 2% while copper remained high. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high and crypto assets are poised to boost sentiment.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,650.46 | +0.43 | Buying back in aviation and consumer cyclical stocks |
| S&P 500 | 6,280.46 | +0.27 | IT and Healthcare Driving the Market |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 20,630.66 | +0.09 | Profit-selling in AI-related sectors, but prices remain high |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,646.36 | -0.44%. | Wary of a strong yen and ETF distribution sales weighing on the market. |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 552.93 | +0.54 | Mining and healthcare led the year |
U.S. flat but higher, Japan falls back on tariff uncertainty. Capital flows toward large-cap stocks in the U.S. and Europe and the resource sector.
bond
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slightly higher at 4.36% (+1bp), mirroring inflation stickiness concerns
- German 10-year bond 2.66% (+3bp) and European inflation-linked selling dominance
- 10yr JGBs flat at 1.50% (-1bp), limited impact of BOJ purchase operations
Long-term interest rates are generally higher, but the increase is limited and the move away from safe assets is localized.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.19 | +0.06 | Continued yen carry due to high U.S. interest rates |
| EUR/USD | 1.1702 | -0.16%. | Euro under pressure due to widening interest rate differentials between Europe and the U.S. |
| USD/CNY | 7.1749 | +0.03 | Small movement with the People's Bank of China leaving the mid-term price unchanged. |
The dollar was generally firm, with yen and euro selling leading the dollar higher.
commodity
| goods | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 66.81 | -2.30%. | Inventory growth and U.S. tariff risk concerns |
| Brent crude oil | 68.64 | -2.21%. | Burdened by OPEC production increase |
| natural gas | 3.365 | +4.70 | Demand expected due to high temperature forecast for central U.S. |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,333.70 | +0.38 | Buy safe on expectations of lower real interest rates |
| silver | 37.81 | +1.35 | Industrial demand and higher precious metals |
| copper | 5.6198 | -0.15%. | Adjustment selling before the 50% U.S. tariff takes effect |
crypto
- bitcoin $112,737 (+1.77%), a new record high and continued ETF inflows
- ethereum $2,810 (+2.9%), driven by tokenization expectations and ETF demand
Crypto, a measure of risk tolerance, led the rise, supporting risk-on sentiment.
Macro event focus (up to 3 business days ahead)
- 7/11 (Fri) U.S. June CPI, U.S. unemployment insurance claims - Buyback scenario for U.S. Treasuries if inflation slowdown is confirmed
- 7/11 (Fri) U.S. July University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Preliminary - Focus on expected inflation rate
- 7/12 (Sat) China June Trade Balance - Copper and Energy Supply and Demand Clues
- 7/15 (Tue) U.S. June retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing index - Verify the persistence of consumer spending
- 7/15 (Tue) Germany July ZEW Business Confidence Survey - Confirmation of European economic momentum
Insight Summary
- Stocks and crypto assets are higher, but rising U.S. long-term interest rates restrain upside.
- The portfolio isLarge High Tech + Resource Stocks + Gold Balancedis valid.
- Assuming that the dollar will continue to appreciate, the strategy is to increase the ratio of dollar-denominated assets.
- Bonds are more than 2-year U.S. Treasuries.U.S. 5-7 year mid-term zoneControlling capital risk by transferring to a
Market Insights Infographic
general mood
Major U.S. stocks were slightly higher, with the NASDAQ reaching new daily highs. While the overall market was in a strong/weak position, bitcoin hit an all-time high on the back of inflows into ETFs, boosting market sentiment.
Equity (Shares)
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
cash flow
U.S. flat but higher, Japan falls back on tariff uncertainty. Capital flows toward large-cap stocks in the U.S. and Europe and the resource sector.
bond
Market Overview
Long-term interest rates are generally higher, but the increase is limited and the move away from safe assets is localized.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
Market Overview
The dollar was generally firm, with yen and euro selling leading the dollar higher.
commodity
| goods | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
Crypto (crypto assets)
| description | Price | compared to previous day |
|---|
Market Overview
Crypto, a measure of risk tolerance, led the rise, supporting risk-on sentiment.
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