This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
US inflation re-accelerated (CPI +2.7 %) and interest rate cut speculation receded,Dow 44,023.29 (-1.0 %) and S&P 500 6,243.76 (-0.4 %) fell backOn the one hand, the On the other hand, the generative AI-related supports buying Nasdaq 20,677.80 (+0.2 %) reached a new high on a closing basisThe yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is expected to rise by 1.5% to 2.5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is 4.49 5 bp increase to %The interest rate burden will increase. The dollar-yen is 148.88 yen to the highest level since the beginning of the year, while the euro-dollar 1.1598 and continued to fall. Crude oil fell back to the $66 level, while gold remained high at $3,361. The market's underlying tone was "strong dollar against inflation + soft oil but strong high tech.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,023.29 | ▼443.22 (-1.0 %) | Selling mainly financial and capital goods |
| S&P 500 | 6,243.76 | ▼25.99 (-0.4 %) | Softness in banking stocks pushes down index |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,677.80 | ▲40.00 (+0.2 %) | Driven by NVIDIA and other AI semiconductors |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,678.02 | (-218.40) (+0.55 %) | Weaker Yen and Semiconductor Buybacks |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 547.93 | -0.95 (+0.17 %) | Supported by media tech stocks |
Fund Flow: Concentrating on large U.S. tech, while Asian stocks follow. Europe is slightly higher and wait and see.
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond 4.49 % (+5 bp) - Yields continue to rise as inflation re-accelerates
- German 10-year bond 2.71 % (-0.02 bp) - Relatively firm on economic concerns
- Japan 10-year bond 1.59 % (+2 bp)-BoJ hawkishness continues
Safe asset preference is limited and real interest rates are on the rise.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 148.88 | +0.79 % | Selling the yen on interest rate differentials and tariff warnings |
| EUR/USD | 1.1598 | -0.57 % | Weak euro due to inflation gap |
| USD/CNY | 7.17 | +0.01 % | Within range due to the People's Bank of China's efforts to curb yuan depreciation |
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $66.66/bbl | -0.32 (-0.48 %) | Additional tariff proposal raises demand concerns |
| Brent Crude Oil | $68.85/bbl | -0.37 (-0.53 %) | same as above |
| natural gas | $3.51/MMBtu | +1.17 % | Demand for air conditioning due to severe heat forecast in the U.S. |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,361/oz | +0.3 % | Inflation hedging demand continues |
| silver | $38.12/oz | -0.31 (-0.8 %) | Adjustment due to strong profit-taking |
| copper | $5.495/lb | -0.020 (-0.36 %) | Profit fixing for high price warnings |
crypto
- bitcoin: $120,325 (+0.9 %) - Remained at the highest level due to policy expectations
- ethereum$3,047.94 (+1.1 %) - ETH ETF expectations supported
Risk tolerance remains high and the crypto market is selectively rising.
Macro Event Focus
- 7/16 (Wed.) U.S. June PPI, FOMC meeting minutes, U.K. CPI
- July 17 (Thursday) U.S. Housing Starts, New Unemployment Insurance Applications
- Friday, 7/18 China Q2 GDP, U.S. June existing home sales
- 7/19 (Sat.) G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Rio de Janeiro)
Insight Summary
- Crypto is a high price wave: Maintain medium- to long-term holdings while setting a trailing stop at the $120,000 BTC level.
- AI Tech SteadyInflation rekindled, but funds continue to flow into high-tech. Index ETFs are aiming for a push.
- Dollar appreciation and yen depreciation in progressThe yen is in a favorable condition for exporters to reevaluate their currency hedging strategies.
- Crude oil adjustment is a push opportunity: Concerns about slowing demand, but OPEC + supply constraints limit downside. Consider diversifying into resource stocks.
- Bonds are in the medium-term zone: Shift to 3-6 year duration with US 10yr 4.51 TP3T approaching and risk management.
Sector and Individual Issue Considerations
Sector Overview
- The top contributor to the increase was Communication Services (+0.61 TP3T)The index was boosted by the better-than-expected weekend box office for the film "Superman Reborn" and the fact that Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery both hit new highs for the year.
- Worst is. Financial (-1.45%)In addition to post-earnings selling at JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.491 TP3T, which broadly pushed bank stocks lower.
Rising Issues to Watch (Watch List)
Watch List Summary (2025/07/15 Closing Price Basis)
| description | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|
| Ouster (OUST) | +14.48% | Sudden increase in volume on the back of reports of smart city contracts for Europe, with some profit-taking just ahead of the $29 level. |
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | +6.21% | 6 billion $ investment in AI-specific data center in PennsylvaniaNVIDIA collaboration boosts supply and demand expectations |
| QuantumScape (QS) | +7.96% | Solid-state battery mass-production process "Cobra Separator" upgraded to standard process. Expectations for the transition to the mass production phase attracted buyers. |
| Joby Aviation (JOBY) | +10.45% | After a successful demonstration flight in Dubai, the company announced plans to double its production capacity and reached a new high for the year on consecutive days. |
| Telesat (TSAT) | +7.03% | Lightspeed LEO financing progress observed; technical break above $26 level |
| BlackSky (BKSY) | +6.72% | Rumors of additional imaging contracts for the U.S. government have led to increased speculative buying in the small space sector. |
| Planet Labs (PL) | +3.71% | NASA Earth Observation Data Expansion Program |
| Super Micro Computer (SMCI) | +6.92% | Reports of AI server orders for AMD's latest GPUs are material |
| AMD (AMD) | +6.41% | AI-related speculation continues with the leak of MI400 series mass production. Volume surges |
| Jumia Technologies (JMIA) | +5.16% | Consolidation of prices after the rise. Volume is at normal level. |
Sector/Stock Insights
- The portfolio is Large tech mainstay + AI-related mid/small-cap push and room for reconsideration of the finance ratio.
- High-beta small-cap stocks are back in the spotlight, with AI infrastructure (CRWV, SMCI) and next-generation mobility (JOBY, OUST) the main cyclical targets.
- Financials adjusted as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note approached 4.51 TP3T. Yield-sensitive utilities and real estate also softened.
- Energy saw a small rebound in crude oil but a slow return due to tariff risks and a return of funds to defensive.
Market Insights Infographic
general mood
While the major stock indexes fell back due to the recession in the U.S. as interest rate cuts are expected due to the re-acceleration of U.S. inflation, the NASDAQ hit a new high due to the persistent expectations for AI-related products. The market environment is a mix of "dollar strength on inflation" and "firmness in high-tech.
Equity (Shares)
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
cash flow
While concentrating on large U.S. tech, Asian stocks also follow. Europe is slightly higher and watching.
bond
Market Overview
Safe asset preference is limited and real interest rates are on the rise.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
Crypto (crypto assets)
Market Overview
Risk tolerance remains high and the crypto market is selectively rising.
Macro Event Focus
Insight Summary
Sector and Individual Issue Considerations
Sector Overview
The top contributor to the gain was **Communication Services (+0.61 TP3T)**. The index was boosted by better-than-expected weekend box office for the "Superman Reborn" movie, with Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery both hitting new highs for the year.
Worst was **Financials (-1.451 TP3T)**, as post-earnings selling at JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, along with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.491 TP3T, broadly pushed bank stocks lower.
Rising Issues to Watch (Watch List)
| description | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|
Sector/Stock Insights
- High-beta small-cap stocks are back in the spotlight, with AI infrastructure (CRWV, SMCI) and next-generation mobility (JOBY, OUST) the main cyclical targets.
- Financials adjusted as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note approached 4.51 TP3T. Yield-sensitive utilities and real estate also softened.
- Energy saw a small rebound in crude oil but a slow return due to tariff risks and a return of funds to defensive.
- The portfolio is Large tech mainstay + AI-related mid/small-cap push and room for reconsideration of the finance ratio.
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