This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 2025/07/17)
| description | theme | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSCP | Security Robot | +23.05 % | Announced plans to issue up to $50 million in stock on 7/18, expecting to raise funds to expand robot introduction. |
| CRSP | genome editing | +18.22 % | 52-week high with insider buying and volume of about $645 million, rekindling hopes for commercialization of gene-editing therapies. |
| MOB | Drone Cyber Security | +12.74 % | High profile with Blue UAS approval |
| APLD | AI Data Center | +9.35 % | Gapped up at the close on 7/18 and volume surged, backed by demand for AI data centers. |
| ASPI | medical isotope | +8.70 % | Rising with a trading volume of over 8 million shares, close to 52-week highs, and a sense of short-term overheating. |
| QS | solid-state battery | +7.65 % | The company is currently at an all-time high ahead of its earnings announcement on July 23, and expectations for progress in the solid-state battery mass-production roadmap are growing stronger. |
| SMR | small nuclear reactor | +7.30 % | Share price has more than doubled since the beginning of the year, driven by a re-evaluation of nuclear energy and policy support. |
| OUST | 3D LiDAR Sensor | +7.02 % | OS1 LiDAR is used in the Department of Defense's Blue UAS framework, and demand for defense applications is expected to increase. |
| DAVE | FinTech | +6.90 % | The rating continues to be bullish and is also rising due to the Q1 earnings 47% increase. |
| DELL | AI Server/PC | +5.94 % | Stock prices continued to rise on the back of an expanding order backlog for AI servers. |
market insight
general mood
Major U.S. stocks were mixed. Following the previous day's highsS&P 500 paused at -0.01%, ,Nasdaq slightly higher.Dow. The Dow adjusted -0.31 TP3T, reflecting mixed financial results. Europe supported by energy and industrial stocks.STOXX600 almost flatJapanese stocks fell back to -0.211 TP3T. Japanese stocks fell back to -0.21% ahead of the weekend elections. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. yield fell slightly to 4.421 TP3T, while German and Japanese yields softened on safe-haven inflows. The dollar was slightly lower and risk assets were generally selective in a "quiet risk-on" environment.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,342.19 | -142.30 (-0.3%) | Profit-taking selling in financial stocks |
| S&P 500 | 6,296.79 | -0.57 (-0.01%) | Watching the highs |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 20,895.66 | +10.01 (+0.05%) | Highest prices led by semiconductors |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,819.11 | -82.08 (-0.21%) | Pre-election vigilance |
| STOXX600 | 547.00 | -0.03 (-0.01%) | Higher energy stocks offset by lower health care prices |
Funds are headed to U.S. big tech and European energy, while Asia is on the defensive due to election factors.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (㌽) | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.42% | -0.03 | Yields decline due to slowing inflation |
| Germany | 2.70% | +0.02 | Adjustment before ECB meeting |
| Japan | 1.53% | -0.03 | BOJ purchases of long-term JGBs expected |
While risk caution recedes,Long-term zone strengthensThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 148.73 (+0.19%): Uncertainty over the election has led to a sell-off of the yen.
- EUR/USD 1.1618 (+0.03%)Euro firm on speculation of ECB meeting
- usd/cny 7.1842 (+0.01%)RMB: The yuan remained in a narrow range.
commodity
| list of articles | Closing price(USD) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 67.93 | +0.57% | Middle East supply concerns, EU sanctions against Russia strengthened |
| Brent Crude Oil | 69.92 | +0.57% | same as above |
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | 3.55 | +0.12% | Inventory Decrease |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,337.45 | -0.04% | Small movement despite lower U.S. yields |
| silver | 38.17 | +0.05% | industrial demand speculation |
| copper | 5.50 | +0.46% | China Infrastructure Expectations |
crypto
- Bitcoin: approximately $118,000 (-0.3%)Laws and Regulations: A Lull in Factoring in Legal Progress
- Ethereum: around $3,600 (+6%)Relative strength is clear due to regulatory tailwind.
While risk tolerance is maintained, funds are circulating mainly in large alts.
Macro Event Focus (7/21-7/24)
- 7/22 (Tue) U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and M2 StatisticsDeceleration range
- 7/23 (Wed) Preliminary national PMIs for July (U.S., Eurozone, U.K., Japan)Key point: whether the manufacturing industry has bottomed out or not.
- 7/23-24 (Wed-Thu) ECB Governing CouncilNew strategy first meeting: focus on presence of hawkish signals
- 7/24 (Thu) ECB Policy Rate, President Lagarde's Press Conference: Risk of Euro softening if rate cuts are indicated.
Insight Summary
both stocks and commoditiesstruggle to the high (stock market, etc.)and bond yields are on a downward trend. In the short term, the
- Balanced risk-on based on US large tech + European energy
- Weak dollar-weak yen environment favors U.S. exporters and Japanese domestic defensive demand
- Bonds have room to trade for capital gains in the U.S. and German 10-year
- Commodities continue to push crude oil, gold maintains hedging quota
ECB meeting and PMI are the watershed this week. Maintain a portfolio of 6:3:1 equities:bonds:cash and consider a euro call option as a hedge against eurozone events.
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