This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 07/23/2025)
| description | theme | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUNR | space exploration | +18.53 % | Craig-Hallum New Buy, Lunar operations expected |
| HIMS | telehealth | +16.02 % | Truist target raised $48 |
| QBTS | quantum computer | +15.41 % | B.Riley target $22, quantum expectations |
| GEV | energy conversion | +14.58 % | Favorable Q2 results and upward guidance revision |
| CALM | hen egg products | +13.80 % | Significant increase in profit in Q4 and expansion of share buyback program |
| BFLY | medical equipment | +13.76 % | surge in volume |
| TEL | Industrial Connectors | +11.95 % | Double-digit increase in Q3 sales EPS, AI demand contribution |
| SYM | Logistics Robot | +9.47 % | Rebound from a one-time adjustment |
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks areAll high on U.S.-Japan trade agreementThe The Dow hit the 45,000 level and the S&P 500 reached an all-time high for the fourth consecutive business day. The Nasdaq also extended higher. Europe.STOXX600 is +1.11 TP3TJapan, too, is being led by automobile shareholders.Nikkei 225 up 3.51 TP3TThe U.S. While stocks and commodities are rising due to receding trade risks, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is4. 381 TP3T, rising to 3.381 TP3TThe dollar softened against the yen and yuan, while precious metals held firm. The dollar softened against the yen and yuan, while precious metals held firm. The overall market was dominated by "risk-on" sentiment in favor of easing tariffs.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,010.29 | +507.85 pt (+1.1%) | Buying automobiles and capital goods |
| S&P 500 | 6,358.91 | +49.29 pt (+0.8%) | Trade agreement and earnings expectations |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,020.02 | +127.34 pt (+0.6%) | Strong semiconductor and AI related |
| Nikkei 225 | 41,171.32 | +1,396.40 pt (+3.5%) | Export stocks surge on tariff reductions |
| STOXX600 | 550.22 | +5.88 pt (+1.08%) | Automotive and materials-led rebound |
Funds are concentrated in large tech and export-related sectors, and European defensives are also pushing back.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.38% | +4 | Risk-on and selling dominance |
| Germany | 2.67% | +4 | Position adjustment before ECB |
| Japan | 1.60% | +9 | Trade agreement raises interest rate hike speculation |
Long-term interest rates rose globally,Preference for safe assets recedesThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.62 (-0.4%)Yen: yen buy-backs prevailing
- EUR/USD 1.1775 (+0.2%): Euro strengthens on retreat from ECB rate cut speculation
- usd/cny 7.1602 (-0.2%)Yuan firms up due to the People's Bank of China's mid-term price stabilization measures.
commodity
| list of articles | Closing Price (USD) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 65.64 | +0.33 (+0.5%) | U.S.-Japan agreement → Demand expectations |
| Brent Crude Oil | 68.92 | +0.33 (+0.5%) | same as above |
| natural gas | 3.07 | -0.18 (-5.6%) | Inventory increase and temperature decrease |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,422.95 | -0.2% | Yields rise on bond sales, but dollar weakness underpins |
| silver | 39.65 | +1.9% | Industrial demand and speculative buying |
| copper | 5.76 | +2.1% | Infrastructure investment expectations/supply concerns |
crypto
- Bitcoin: $118,700 (+0.2%)-Continued to hold at market highs
- Ethereum: $3,698 (-0.2%)-Demand for L2 is increasing, but gains are still strong.
Macro Event Focus (7/24-7/28)
- 7/24 ECB Governing Council meeting, President Lagarde's press conferenceFocus: 25bp rate cut or not and QT policy
- 7/24 U.S. June New Home Sales, Weekly New Unemployment Insurance ClaimsHousing Slowdown and Labor Tightness Confirmation
- 7/25 U.S. June Durable Goods Orders, Q2 GDP PreliminaryMeasure Capital Expenditures and Pace of Growth
- 7/26 U.S. June Personal Income/PCE Deflator: Will inflation continue to slow?
- 7/26 German IFO Business Sentiment, Eurozone Consumer ConfidenceVerification of the bottoming out of the European economy
Insight Summary
- stock (company)Risk appetite continues on tariff easing and earnings expectations. Pushing back on U.S. big tech and Japanese export stocks.
- bond: US 10yr near 4.4%, reduced room for selling in the short term. Carry gain in spread with German bonds and JGBs.
- exchange (e.g. foreign): Dollar index soft. Short term.Long euro / Buy back yenScenario.
- commodity: Crude oil is in a range around $65, while both gold and silver are pushing the precious metals.
- crypto: $120,000 is upside resistance for BTC, ETH is relatively strong on ETF funds/upgrade expectations.
strategic proposal: The portfolio is recommended to be 60% stocks (35 US tech, 10 Japanese exports, 15 European defensives), 30% bonds (60 US mid-term, 25 German, 15 Japanese), and 10% commodities (5 gold, 3 copper, 2 oil). As a short-term hedge.Short 10-year U.S. Treasury futures + Euro callsConsideration of the following.
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