This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks areS&P 500 hit a new high at 6,204.95and buying is dominated by the generation AI-related products. Europe.STOXX Europe 600 slightly down at 541.37The rebalancing sales were pushed back at the end of the month. Japan wasNikkei 225 continued at 40,487.39The U.S. dollar index fell to the 96 level as investors poured into semiconductors and financial stocks. Global bond buying and lower long-term interest rates pushed the U.S. dollar index down to the 96 level.Continued preference for risk, but also a "return to quality" led by lower U.S. interest rates and a weaker dollarThe complex ground to be
equity
| area | index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | S&P 500 | 6,204.95 | +0.6% | Semiconductor and megatech led to all-time highs |
| United States of America | Nasdaq Composite | 20,369.73 | +0.9% | Concentration of funds in generative AI-related |
| United States of America | the Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,094.77 | +0.5% | defensive stock buybacks |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 | 40,487.39 | +0.8% | Weak yen tailwind, financial stocks supported |
| Europe | STOXX600 | 541.37 | -0.42% | End-of-month position adjustment selling |
cash flowThe market is expected to see a strong inflow into U.S. tech and Japanese equities, while European equities will see profit-taking.
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond yield4.234% (▼4.9bp) - Concerns about a widening budget deficit due to policy tax cuts also prevailing, with yields declining on the back of economic slowdown fears.
- Germany 10 years Bundt: 2.55% (▼6bp) - US-German yield gap to narrow.
- Japan 10-year government bond: 1.43% (▼0.4bp) - further down on expectations of BOJ purchases.
The main reason is "long-term interest rates peaking out" rather than a preference for safe assets.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | rate | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 96.80 | -0.41% | Declining U.S. interest rates and fiscal uncertainty |
| USD/JPY | 143.97 | -0.47% | Sell the dollar and buy the yen as U.S. interest rates decline |
| EUR/USD | 1.1783 | +0.55% | A lull in European inflation slowdown |
| USD/CNH (Offshore Renminbi) | 7.16 | ▼0.2% | Sentiment Improves with U.S.-China Rare Earths Agreement |
commodity
| commodity | Price | compared to previous day |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil Aug. | $65.11 | ▼0.63% |
| Brent Crude Oil Sept. | $67.61 | ▼0.24% |
| Gold Cash | $3,339.20 | +1.1% |
| LME Copper 3M | $9,944/t | ▼1.7% |
Crude oil was slightly lower on OPEC production increase speculation, gold continued to rise on dollar weakness, and copper adjusted on tariff concerns.
crypto
- bitcoin: $107,937 (+0.5%) - The price remained at the $100,000 level, absorbing profit taking by long-term holders.
- ethereum: $2,519 (+3.5%) - Rising on ETF inflows and L2-related materials.
Risk tolerance is high, but revaluation of "digital gold" in a declining interest rate environment is the backdrop.
Macro Event Focus
- 7/1 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
- 7/2 Preliminary CPI for the euro area (June)
- 7/3 U.S. FOMC Minutes (June Meeting)
- 7/3 U.S. employment statistics (June)
- 7/4 U.S. markets closed (Independence Day)
Insight Summary
- Stocks: Selective bullishness continues for U.S. tech and Japanese stocksThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Bonds: Long-term rates feel topped out, curve bull-steepThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Currencies: Dollar softens, yen seeks bottom as interest rate differential narrowsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- Commodities: Oil Supply-Demand Slackens, but Gold and Metals Preferred on Financial FactorsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- portfolio suggestionThe "barbell strategy" of large-cap high-tech + gold, with yen and gold as dollar hedges, is the core of the strategy.
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