This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
The Israel-Iran ceasefire was well received,risk-on reversionInflationary pressures eased as oil plunged and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to the 4.3% level. The dollar weakened and the major currencies appreciated. Stocks are in a phase of "rising stock prices and falling interest rates," with high-technology-driven stocks trading at high levels.
equity
| area | index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | S&P 500 | 6,092.16 | 0.0% | Concentration of funds in AI-related fields |
| United States of America | Nasdaq Composite | 19,973.55 | +0.3% | Semiconductor-driven highs |
| United States of America | the Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 42,982.43 | -0.2% | Defensive stocks weighed down |
| Europe | Stoxx Europe 600 | 536.98 | -0.7% | Energy stocks soft due to low oil prices |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 (closing price on 25th) | 38,790.56 | +1.14% | Driven by semiconductors and finance |
High-tech buying continues in the U.S. and Japan, while energy stocks weigh on Europe. Funds areGenerating AI Supply Chainbias to the
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | compared to previous day | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.30% | -4bp | Buying back in anticipation of slower inflation |
| Germany | 2.57% | -3bp | Safe Asset Buying Dominance |
| Japan | 1.42% | +1bp | Limited upside due to the Bank of Japan's limit price operations |
The simultaneous decline in interest rates and rising stock prices are characteristic of the market.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- Dollar/Yen: Stalled near 145.21, lower U.S. interest rates a factor in dollar sell-off.
- Euro/U.S. dollarECB: 1.1598, the highest level since the beginning of the year, supported by the retreat from the ECB's additional easing
- Dollar/YuanYuan slightly higher near 7.17, supported by expectations of Chinese stimulus measures.
commodity
| goods | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $64.92/bbl | +0.9% | Short cover with ceasefire reassurance |
| Brent crude oil | $67.68/bbl | +0.8% | same as above |
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | $2.90/MMBtu | - | High inventory levels and heavy upside |
| Copper (LME3M) | $9,930/t | -1.0% | Concerns about slowing demand in China |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,333/oz | +0.2% | Lower U.S. interest rates support buying |
crypto
- bitcoin: Steady around $105,000, institutional investors continue to push the price.
- ethereum: hovering around $2,400, supported by expanded Layer 2 adoption
Continued to try for higher prices, reflecting improved risk tolerance.
Macro Event Focus
- 6/26 U.S. 1Q GDP Confirmation: Room for interest rate rebound if growth rate is revised upward.
- 6/27 U.S. May PCE DeflatorCore PCE: 2.5% expected; if lower, expectations of easing strengthened.
- 6/28 Preliminary Eurozone HICPECB: If 1% level is maintained, ECB's additional easing will recede.
- 6/28 Tokyo CPI (June) Preview: Focus on CPI growth excluding energy
Insight Summary
- The risk of inflation receded due to the sharp drop in oil prices,Stocks > Bonds > CashRisk appetite of the company is reasonable.
- Generating AI Related Stocks Picking Up the Pieces-Concentration of funds in the US and Japanese high-tech.
- Yield secured by long-term U.S. Treasury bonds-Stable cash flow while taking advantage of lower interest rates.
- Gradual inclusion of energy stocks-The sharp decline in crude oil is a long-term buying opportunity.
- Hold gold around 5%, bitcoin is a satellite quota-Multiple hedges ensure portfolio resilience.
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