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July 7, 2025 Market Insights|Stocks lower, dollar higher on tariff concerns; oil rebounds, but risk-off tone intensifies

July 7, 2025 Market Insights|Stocks lower, dollar higher on tariff concerns; oil rebounds, but risk-off tone intensifiesmarket analysis

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

Market Insights Overall Mood

U.S. stocks areRekindling of tariff riskThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite adjusted for the first time in 3 business days to 6,229.98 (-0.79%) and 20,412.52 (-0.92%), respectively. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remained flat but high at 4.33%, and bond buying was limited even as stocks fell. While the dollar index continued to rise and the risk-off tone strengthened, crude oil rebounded as demand expectations prevailed even with the OPEC+ decision to increase production. Overall, the market's tone was "risk-off with tariffs + resilient resources.

equity

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daybackground
New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average)44,406.36▼422.17 pt (-0.94 %)Industrial stocks sold off due to concerns about new Trump tariffs
S&P 5006,229.98▼49.37 pt (-0.79 %)Tesla plunges, semiconductors also gain
Nasdaq Composite20,412.52▼ 188.59 pt (-0.92 %)Profit-taking pressure on AI stocks
Nikkei 22539,587.68▼223.20 pt (-0.56 %)Semiconductor adjustment and a lull in yen depreciation
Stoxx Europe 600543.50-2.37 pt (+0.44 %)Supported by bank stocks and renewable energy

Funds circulated to defensive and European large cap stocks.

bond

  • U.S. 10-year bond 4.33% (±0bp) - Economic firmness offset by tariff risk
  • German 10-year bond 2.60% (-1bp) - a lull in fiscal expansion caution
  • Japan 10-year bond 1.465% (+0.3bp) - sustained BOJ hawkishness

Preference for safe assets is limited and real interest rates remain unchanged.

exchange (e.g. foreign)

Currency Pairsclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous dayComment
USD/JPY146.08+1.10 yen (+0.76 %)Strong dollar advantage, demand from importing firms follows.
EUR/USD1.1710-0.40 %European stock market rally also led to dollar buying
USD/CNY7.16+0.02 %Curtailment of yuan depreciation by the People's Bank of China restrains upside

The dollar is strong across the board, but particularly strong against the yen.

Commodities (closing price/day before)

list of articlesclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daydriver (of a vehicle)
WTI crude oil$67.93/bbl+1.4 %Observation of demand recovery absorbs production increase
Brent Crude Oil$69.58/bbl+1.9 %same as above
natural gas$3.41/MMBtu-0.6 %Selling back to the market due to increased output
money (written before an amount)$3,332.20/oz-0.12 %Firm even though the strong dollar restrains upside
silver$36.74/oz-0.41 %decline in precious metals prices
copper$4.98/lb-0.2 %Premium reduction due to U.S. tariff alert

crypto

  • bitcoin$107,760 (-1.5 %) - ETF inflows supported by risk asset selling chain due to tariff alert
  • ethereum$2,528 (-1.9 %) - Adjustment phase for major upgrade expectations

Short-term trade predominance due to increased volatility.

Macro Event Focus

  • Tuesday, 7/08 U.S. FOMC Minutes (June meeting), China's June trade balance
  • 7/09 (Wed.) U.S. June CPI, Bank of Canada policy rate
  • July 10 (Thursday) U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, U.K. Preliminary GDP for May
  • Friday, 7/11 Japan May Machinery Orders, Preliminary Consumer Confidence Report, University of Michigan, U.S.

Insight Summary

  • Return to tariff-wary defensive: In the U.S. stock market correction phase, we will defend ourselves with healthcare and utility sector ETFs.
  • Aiming to push energyCrude oil: Supported by the tight supply-demand situation after the production increase. Stepwise accumulation in resource stocks.
  • Hedging against a strong dollar scenarioDiversification into euro and Australian dollar and raising the ratio of assets outside the U.S. will be effective.
  • Shift to short-term bonds to manage interest rate riskThe 10-year U.S. yield is expected to remain in the 4.3% range, mainly in the 3-5 year zone.
  • Crypto is a reduced weightBitcoin: Gains prevail ahead of $110,000, waiting for a push after the event passes.

Market Insights Infographic

Analysis Date: 2025/07/07

general mood

U.S. stocks fell back due to renewed tariff risk; 10-year Treasury yields remained high and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, adding to the risk-off tone, while crude oil rebounded on the back of prevailing demand expectations. Overall, the market tone was "risk-off due to tariff warnings + resilience of resources.

Equity (Shares)

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous day

cash flow

Funds circulated to defensive and European large cap stocks.

bond

Market Overview

Preference for safe assets is limited and real interest rates remain unchanged.

exchange (e.g. foreign)

Currency Pairsclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous day

Market Overview

The dollar is strong across the board, but particularly strong against the yen.

commodity

list of articlesclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous day

Crypto (crypto assets)

Market Overview

Short-term trade predominance due to increased volatility.

Macro Event Focus

Insight Summary

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