This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Market Insights Overall Mood
U.S. stocks areRekindling of tariff riskThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite adjusted for the first time in 3 business days to 6,229.98 (-0.79%) and 20,412.52 (-0.92%), respectively. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remained flat but high at 4.33%, and bond buying was limited even as stocks fell. While the dollar index continued to rise and the risk-off tone strengthened, crude oil rebounded as demand expectations prevailed even with the OPEC+ decision to increase production. Overall, the market's tone was "risk-off with tariffs + resilient resources.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,406.36 | ▼422.17 pt (-0.94 %) | Industrial stocks sold off due to concerns about new Trump tariffs |
| S&P 500 | 6,229.98 | ▼49.37 pt (-0.79 %) | Tesla plunges, semiconductors also gain |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,412.52 | ▼ 188.59 pt (-0.92 %) | Profit-taking pressure on AI stocks |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,587.68 | ▼223.20 pt (-0.56 %) | Semiconductor adjustment and a lull in yen depreciation |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 543.50 | -2.37 pt (+0.44 %) | Supported by bank stocks and renewable energy |
Funds circulated to defensive and European large cap stocks.
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond 4.33% (±0bp) - Economic firmness offset by tariff risk
- German 10-year bond 2.60% (-1bp) - a lull in fiscal expansion caution
- Japan 10-year bond 1.465% (+0.3bp) - sustained BOJ hawkishness
Preference for safe assets is limited and real interest rates remain unchanged.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.08 | +1.10 yen (+0.76 %) | Strong dollar advantage, demand from importing firms follows. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1710 | -0.40 % | European stock market rally also led to dollar buying |
| USD/CNY | 7.16 | +0.02 % | Curtailment of yuan depreciation by the People's Bank of China restrains upside |
The dollar is strong across the board, but particularly strong against the yen.
Commodities (closing price/day before)
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $67.93/bbl | +1.4 % | Observation of demand recovery absorbs production increase |
| Brent Crude Oil | $69.58/bbl | +1.9 % | same as above |
| natural gas | $3.41/MMBtu | -0.6 % | Selling back to the market due to increased output |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,332.20/oz | -0.12 % | Firm even though the strong dollar restrains upside |
| silver | $36.74/oz | -0.41 % | decline in precious metals prices |
| copper | $4.98/lb | -0.2 % | Premium reduction due to U.S. tariff alert |
crypto
- bitcoin$107,760 (-1.5 %) - ETF inflows supported by risk asset selling chain due to tariff alert
- ethereum$2,528 (-1.9 %) - Adjustment phase for major upgrade expectations
Short-term trade predominance due to increased volatility.
Macro Event Focus
- Tuesday, 7/08 U.S. FOMC Minutes (June meeting), China's June trade balance
- 7/09 (Wed.) U.S. June CPI, Bank of Canada policy rate
- July 10 (Thursday) U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, U.K. Preliminary GDP for May
- Friday, 7/11 Japan May Machinery Orders, Preliminary Consumer Confidence Report, University of Michigan, U.S.
Insight Summary
- Return to tariff-wary defensive: In the U.S. stock market correction phase, we will defend ourselves with healthcare and utility sector ETFs.
- Aiming to push energyCrude oil: Supported by the tight supply-demand situation after the production increase. Stepwise accumulation in resource stocks.
- Hedging against a strong dollar scenarioDiversification into euro and Australian dollar and raising the ratio of assets outside the U.S. will be effective.
- Shift to short-term bonds to manage interest rate riskThe 10-year U.S. yield is expected to remain in the 4.3% range, mainly in the 3-5 year zone.
- Crypto is a reduced weightBitcoin: Gains prevail ahead of $110,000, waiting for a push after the event passes.
Market Insights Infographic
general mood
U.S. stocks fell back due to renewed tariff risk; 10-year Treasury yields remained high and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, adding to the risk-off tone, while crude oil rebounded on the back of prevailing demand expectations. Overall, the market tone was "risk-off due to tariff warnings + resilience of resources.
Equity (Shares)
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
cash flow
Funds circulated to defensive and European large cap stocks.
bond
Market Overview
Preference for safe assets is limited and real interest rates remain unchanged.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
Market Overview
The dollar is strong across the board, but particularly strong against the yen.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
Crypto (crypto assets)
Market Overview
Short-term trade predominance due to increased volatility.
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