July 9, 2025 Market Insights｜U.S. stocks rebound, long-term interest rates fall, and resources continue to rise with record high copper

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

market insight

general mood

Major U.S. stock indexes all rebounded,Nasdaq is on the verge of its all-time highThe S&P 500 also rallied in a row, approaching its highs again, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rise. Long-term interest rates wereYield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note falls to 4.34%.The dollar strengthened against the yen to the upper JPY146 level, while the euro softened to the lower JPY1.17 level. The dollar strengthened against the yen to the upper ¥146 level, while the euro softened to the $1.17 level. Crude oil was slightly lower but maintained the $70/bbl level,U.S. Copper Futures Hit Record High on 50% Tariff SpeculationThe "selective risk-on" phase is continuing. The "selective risk-on" phase continues, with higher resource prices and lower interest rates supporting stock prices while factoring in tariff risks.

equity

Funds returned to U.S. large cap tech while diversifying into European and Japanese stocks and resource-related stocks.

bond

• U.S. 10-year bond4.34 % (▼8 bp) - CPI ante-hedging buying dominance
• German 10-year bond: 2.61 % (▼3 bp) - reflects slowdown in leading economic indicators
• Japan 10-year bond1.51 % (-2 bp) - Continued speculation of additional rate hikes by the BOJ

While preference for safe assets is limited, yields are generally declining due to easing inflation fears.

exchange (e.g. foreign)

Commodities (closing price/day before)

crypto

• bitcoin$109,343 (+0.8 %) - $110K in sight, ETF inflows continue
• ethereum$2,774.95 (+7.0 %) - Accelerated buying due to proposed staking fee reduction/exemption

Risk tolerance is high, but there are some scattered gains on the upside.

Macro Event Focus

• July 10 (Thursday) China's June CPI and PPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, OPEC International Seminar
• Friday, 7/11 Preliminary UK GDP for May, Preliminary US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Preliminary July)
• July 15 (Tuesday) U.S. June CPI (key to inflation trend), Eurozone ZEW business confidence
• July 15 (Tuesday) Speech by President Trump and Chairman Powell (Economic Outlook)

Insight Summary

1. U.S. Tech Re-accelerationThe long term interest rates are falling and the AI boom continues; NASDAQ-linked ETFs are picking up the slack; and the market is still in the midst of a major correction.
2. Utilization of High Resource PricesThe company will gradually incorporate resource stocks and ETFs during the rise in copper and crude oil prices to strengthen its inflation hedge.
3. Currency Management under Continued Yen SellingThe yen/USD level of 146 yen is a tailwind for exporters. Flexibly adjust hedge ratios.
4. Bonds are in the medium-term zoneThe U.S. and German interest rates are both on a downtrend but with high volatility, focusing on 3-7 year durations.
5. Crypts are moderately weightedBTC: Volatility is high at the BTC level. Trailing stops are recommended except for long-term holdings.

Market Insights Infographic