This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks fell back on tariff risks and high prices,S&P 500 6,259.75 (-0.3%), NASDAQ 20,585.53 (-0.2%), Dow 44,371.51 (-0.6%)Long-term interest rates rose 1bp to 4.36%, restraining the upside in equities. The dollar continued to rise to the low 147's while the euro softened near 1.169. Energy prices firmed to WTI 68.75 (+3.33,354/oz (+0.9%). The market is in a selective risk-off phase, with a "slight correction in equities + dollar strength + energy" occurring simultaneously.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,371.51 | ▼ 279.13 pt (-0.63 %) | Tariff-wary selling in industrial stocks |
| S&P 500 | 6,259.75 | ▼20.71 pt (-0.33 %) | Value Stocks Soften as Interest Rates Rise |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,585.53 | ▼45.14 pt (-0.22 %) | Selling interest in semiconductors |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,569.68 | ▼76.68 pt (-0.19 %) | Strong Yen and external demand alert |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 547.34 | ▼5.59 pt (-1.01 %) | Wide range of sales outside of the mining industry |
Fund Flow: Selling pressure on European stocks while diversifying from U.S. high-tech to some resource stocks.
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond4.36 % (+1 bp) - position adjustment prior to CPI announcement
- German 10-year bond2.72 % (+4 bp) - Concerns about high inflation
- Japan 10-year bond1.51 % (+0.2 bp) - Continued BOJ hawkish observation
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 147.39 | +0.82 % | Selling the yen to avoid interest rate differentials and tariffs |
| EUR/USD | 1.1690 | -0.09 % | Euro softens on European economic concerns |
| USD/CNY | 7.1686 | -0.09 % | Yuan defense by the People's Bank of China underpins |
Commodities (closing price/day before)
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $68.75/bbl | +3.27 % | Inventory decline and OPEC+ production cut compliance expectations |
| Brent Crude Oil | $70.69/bbl | +2.99 % | Buy on reports of tougher European sanctions |
| Natural gas (HH) | $3.36/MMBtu | +0.58 % | Heat Wave Returns to the U.S. |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,354/oz | +0.92 % | Safety Buying Continues Despite Strong Dollar |
| silver | $38.37/oz | +3.65 % | inflation hedge demand |
| copper | $5.54/lb | -0.94 % | Profit Fixing after Tariff Rise |
crypto
- bitcoin： Around $116,000 (+4.2 %) - Record highs due to ETF inflows
- ethereum: $2,988 (+7.9 %) - L2 expansion and ETF expectations
Macro Event Focus
- 7/12 (Sat.) China June Trade Balance
- July 15 (Tuesday) U.S. June CPI, NY Fed Manufacturing Index
- July 15 (Tuesday) Germany ZEW Business Confidence Survey
- 7/16 (Wed.) U.S. corporate earnings season opens (JPM, C and other major financials)
- July 17 (Thursday) U.S. Housing Starts and Construction Permits
Insight Summary
- Stock adjustment also limited to the downside: The S&P 500 is willing to push near short-term support at 6,200.
- Coexistence of high energy prices and a strong dollarThe risk of renewed inflation is a concern and hedging is being strengthened with resource stocks and gold ETFs.
- Note long-term interest rate approaching 4.41 TP3T.: Bond durations adjusted in the 4-6 year band.
- Exchange rate continues to favor the dollarThe weak yen and euro are providing a tailwind for export-related companies.
- Crypto is an established destination for diversificationBTC: BTC high, but limited push if ETF inflows continue.
Market Insights Infographic
[Date of analysis] July 11, 2025
A day of selective risk-off
U.S. stocks fell back on tariff risks and high prices. The market was complicated by the simultaneous strength of the dollar and sharp increases in energy prices, which caused investors to retreat from their risk appetite.
S&P 500
-0.33%
U.S. 10-year bond rate
4.36%
WTI crude oil
+3.27%
money (written before an amount)
+0.92%
Stock Market: Major indices fall due to caution
Weighed down by rising interest rates and tariff concerns, the world's major stock markets fell across the board. European markets were particularly down, with some funds shifting from high-tech stocks to resource stocks.
Commodity Markets: Energy Soars, Industrial Metals Adjust
Crude oil rose sharply on the back of geopolitical risks and declining inventories, and precious metals were also firm due to demand for inflation hedging. On the other hand, copper was hit by profit-taking due to concerns about the global economy, resulting in a sharp divergence in the two markets.
Interest Rates, Currencies and Crypto Assets
U.S. long-term interest rates rose slightly. The dollar maintained its dominance in the foreign exchange market, and crypto assets rallied strongly on the back of inflows into ETFs.
10-year bond yields of major countries
🇺🇸 USA:. 4.36% (+1bp)
🇩🇪 Germany:. 2.72% (+4bp)
🇯🇵 Japan:. 1.51% (+0.2bp)
Major Currency Pairs
USD/JPY: USD/JPY: USD/JPY 147.39 (+0.82%)
EUR/USD:. 1.1690 (-0.09%)
USD/CNY: USD/CNY 7.1686 (-0.09%)
bitcoin
$116,000
+4.2%
ethereum
$2,988
+7.9%
5 Key Insights
Stock adjustment is limited to the downside. The S&P 500's 6,200 area is considered a support line, and the desire to push the price down remains strong.
Risk of inflationary resurgence:. The coexistence of high energy prices and a strong dollar will reignite inflation fears, and hedging with resource stocks and gold is effective.
Interest Rate Wall:. Note the possibility of further pressure on the stock market as the U.S. long-term interest rate approaches 4.41 TP3T.
Continued dollar dominance:. The dollar's continued strength against the yen and euro is a tailwind for Japanese export-related companies.
Crypto status established:. Bitcoin continues to see inflows via ETFs despite high prices, establishing it as a new diversified investment destination.
Upcoming Macro Events
7/12(Sat.)China June Trade Balance
7/15(Tue)U.S. June CPI, Germany ZEW Business Confidence Survey
7/16(Wed.)U.S. corporate earnings season opens.
7/17(Thu)U.S. Housing Starts and Construction Permits
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