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2025.7.16 RGTI sharply increased|Market was disturbed by reports of Powell's dismissal, but bought back, Nasdaq reached a new high, and the dollar lost some of its strength

2025.7.16 RGTI sharply increased|Market was disturbed by reports of Powell's dismissal, but bought back, Nasdaq reached a new high, and the dollar lost some of its strengthmarket analysis

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)

Watch List Summary (2025/07/15 Closing Price Basis)

descriptionthemerate of returnPersonal note Insight
SERVrobotics+10.9 %Movement from the adjustment dance floor?
UECUranium related+9.31 %New coverage on BMO with Outperform and a $7.75 price target. Physical uranium maintenance in the $90 range is a tailwind.
OKLOSMR related+5.61 %Buybacks in all SMR-related sectors
ARMsemiconductor+4.62 %Is this a move from an adjustment...
RGTIquantum related+30.19 %Favorable announcement of the industry's largest multi-chip quantum computer
jobyeVTOL+17.06 %High prices due to doubling of mass production capacity and progress in Dubai commercial operations
RCATDefense/Drones+11.59 %Speculation of increased drone production for the Pentagon continues.
RKLBSpace related+6.93 %Citi raised its price target to $50, etc., and the price continues to rise higher.
PDYNrobotics+5.23 %Robotics Technology Showcase at CES 2025 Raises the Bar
RBLXmetaverse+5.81 %Full-scale development of Rewarded Video ads with Google, amplifying expectations for ad monetization.
SEZLdigital payment+8.73 %CNBC's "The World's Top 2025 Fintechs" report renews interest

market insight

The market was briefly tilted toward risk-off after reports of "Powell's dismissal," but President Trump's denial of the news led to a buying spree.Nasdaq hits new high at 20,730.49; Dow rebounds to 44,254.78The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield fell to 4.46%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.46%, although dollar strength paused.USD/JPY just ahead of 149 yenGold and crude oil both remained in a tug-of-war phase. Both gold and crude oil were little changed, with inflation fears and monetary policy uncertainty in a tug-of-war phase.

equity

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daybackground
New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average)44,254.78▲231.49 (+0.53 %)Buyback after Powell dismissal speculation
S&P 5006,263.70-19.94 (+0.32 %)Financials down but healthcare tech high
Nasdaq Composite20,730.49-52.69 (+0.26 %)Semiconductors and megatech led the highest price
Nikkei 22539,663.40▼14.62 (-0.04 %)Slight drop due to lull in yen depreciation
Stoxx Europe 600544.46▼0.49 (-0.09 %)ASML plummets to tech-led low

Funds are concentrated in large U.S. tech, while Europe is higher due to tech earnings disappointments.

bond

  • U.S. 10-year bond 4.46 % (▼3 bp) - Temporary buying ahead on reports of Powell's dismissal
  • German 10-year bond 2.70 % (-1 bp) - Slight decline on economic concerns
  • Japan 10-year bond 1.58 % (-1 bp) - Buyback due to a lull in yen weakness

exchange (e.g. foreign)

Currency Pairsclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous dayComment
USD/JPY149.04+0.11 %Interest rate differential awareness, but dollar's strength pauses
EUR/USD1.1623+0.22 %Dollar falls back, Euro rebounds slightly
USD/CNY7.1680.0 %Flattened by the People's Bank of China's efforts to curb yuan depreciation

Commodities (closing price/day before)

list of articlesclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daydriver (of a vehicle)
WTI crude oil$66.65/bbl+0.2 %Firm bottoming out due to inventory decline report
Brent Crude Oil$68.60/bbl+0.1 %Factoring in Middle East risks
natural gas$3.55/MMBtu+1.1 %Summer Demand Forecast
money (written before an amount)$3,355/oz+0.5 %Buy safe as dollar declines
silver$38.42/oz+0.8 %precious metal carry
copper$5.51/lb-0.3 %Selling for profit at high prices

crypto

  • bitcoin: $119,500 (+2.0 %) - Buy back on regulatory bill moving forward
  • ethereum$3,025 (+1.6 %) - ETH ETF expectations continue

Macro Event Focus

  • July 17 (Thursday) U.S. Housing Starts, New Unemployment Insurance Applications
  • Friday, 7/18 China Q2 GDP, U.S. June existing home sales
  • 7/19 (Sat.) G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Rio)
  • 7/22 (Mon.) Preliminary U.S. PMI, Preliminary European PMI

Insight Summary

  1. Interest Rate Fluctuation due to Powell Personnel Riots: U.S. 10-year yield near 4.51 TP3T is a ceiling material for stocks. Long-term bonds are effective for push-back.
  2. U.S. Tech Dominance Continues: Higher prices of generated AI-related products led the index. The declining phase is picked up in stages by ETFs.
  3. Dollar strength observed peaking outJPY: The dollar is sluggish just ahead of 149 yen. Considering taking profits on some of the yen selling positions.
  4. Commodities are in sideways territoryCrude oil and gold are in a narrow range. Hedging options are effective in case of sudden changes.
  5. Crypto high price waveBTC: Continued attack on the $120,000 mark. Thorough risk management by setting stops.

Market Insights Infographic

Analysis Date: 2025/07/16

Overall Mood Today

Although reports of "Powell's dismissal" caused temporary turbulence in the market, investor sentiment quickly recovered after President Trump's denial of the news. Buying was strong, especially in high-tech stocks. The Nasdaq hit a new high and the Dow also rebounded. On the other hand, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell and the dollar's strength paused. The day was marked by different developments in each market due to a mixture of inflation fears and uncertainty about the future of monetary policy.

Key Indicators

New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average)

44,254.78

+231.49 (+0.53%)

Nasdaq Composite

20,730.49

+52.69 (+0.26%)

U.S. 10-year bond yield

4.46%

-3 bp

USD/JPY

149.04

+0.11%

Stock Market Performance

This section delves into the major global stock markets in detail. Interactive charts compare the performance of each index, and detailed data tables show closing prices and factors contributing to fluctuations. Today's concentration of capital in U.S. tech stocks was particularly pronounced.

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous day
New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average)44,254.78+0.53%
S&P 5006,263.70+0.32%
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations20,730.49+0.26%
Nikkei 22539,663.40-0.04%
Europe 600544.46-0.09%

Funds are concentrated in large U.S. tech, while Europe is on the upside due to disappointment in tech earnings.

Fixed Income & Currency Markets

Interest rates and currency movements are closely related. Here we explore this relationship by displaying side-by-side developments in government bond yields and exchange rates in major countries, where news reports about the appointment of the Fed chairman have induced bond buying (lower yields) and caused the dollar to pause in its appreciation.

Major bond yields

  • U.S. 10-year Treasury note:. 4.46% (▼3 bp) - Buyers ahead on personnel reports

  • German 10-year bond:. 2.70% (▼1 bp) - Slight decline due to economic concerns

  • Japan 10-year bond:. 1.58% (▼1 bp) - Buyback due to a lull in yen depreciation

Main Exchange Rates

  • USD/JPY: USD/JPY: USD/JPY 149.04 (+0.11%) - Interest rate differential awareness, but dollar strength pauses

  • EUR/USD:. 1.1623 (+0.22%) - Dollar falls back, Euro rebounds slightly

  • USD/CNY: USD/CNY 7.168 (0.0%) - Flat due to the People's Bank of China's efforts to curb yuan depreciation

Commodities & Crypto Assets

We analyze trends in the commodity market, which is a notable inflation indicator, and crypto assets, which represent risk assets. Crude oil was firm on lower inventories, while gold rose on the back of a weaker dollar. Crypto assets, on the other hand, were buoyed by news related to regulation and showed signs of a buyback.

list of articlescompared to previous day
WTI crude oil+0.2%
money (written before an amount)+0.5%
copper-0.3%
bitcoin+2.0%
ethereum+1.6%

Insights & Future Highlights

We have compiled key insights from today's market developments and key economic events for the coming days. We use this information to help you make strategic investment decisions.

Today's Insights

  • 1.Interest rate risk: Interest rate risk The furor over the Powell chairmanship appointment suggests that political risk is directly linked to interest rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near 4.51 TP3T will weigh on stock prices, and long-term bonds may be a good opportunity for a push.
  • 2.U.S. Tech Dominance Continues:. Continued inflows of funds into stocks related to generated AI are driving the overall market. A strategy of buying related ETFs in stages is effective during the adjustment phase.
  • 3.Dollar peak out:. USD/JPY is sluggish just before 149 yen. Aware of the turning point in the trend toward a stronger dollar, some profit-taking in yen selling positions is also a possibility.
  • 4.Commodity Stability:. Crude oil and gold are moving in a narrow range. Hedging with options is effective in preparation for sudden changes in geopolitical risks, etc.
  • 5.Crypto high alert:. BTC is on the attack before $120,000. Risk should be managed thoroughly with stop loss orders to prepare for increased volatility.

Macro Event Focus

  • 7/17 (Thu)U.S. Housing Starts, New Unemployment Insurance Applications
  • 7/18 (Fri.)China Q2 GDP, U.S. June existing home sales
  • 7/19 (Sat)G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Rio)
  • 7/22 (Mon.)U.S./Europe PMI Preliminary

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