This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (2025/07/15 Closing Price Basis)
description | theme | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
---|---|---|---|
SERV | robotics | +10.9 % | Movement from the adjustment dance floor? |
UEC | Uranium related | +9.31 % | New coverage on BMO with Outperform and a $7.75 price target. Physical uranium maintenance in the $90 range is a tailwind. |
OKLO | SMR related | +5.61 % | Buybacks in all SMR-related sectors |
ARM | semiconductor | +4.62 % | Is this a move from an adjustment... |
RGTI | quantum related | +30.19 % | Favorable announcement of the industry's largest multi-chip quantum computer |
joby | eVTOL | +17.06 % | High prices due to doubling of mass production capacity and progress in Dubai commercial operations |
RCAT | Defense/Drones | +11.59 % | Speculation of increased drone production for the Pentagon continues. |
RKLB | Space related | +6.93 % | Citi raised its price target to $50, etc., and the price continues to rise higher. |
PDYN | robotics | +5.23 % | Robotics Technology Showcase at CES 2025 Raises the Bar |
RBLX | metaverse | +5.81 % | Full-scale development of Rewarded Video ads with Google, amplifying expectations for ad monetization. |
SEZL | digital payment | +8.73 % | CNBC's "The World's Top 2025 Fintechs" report renews interest |
market insight
The market was briefly tilted toward risk-off after reports of "Powell's dismissal," but President Trump's denial of the news led to a buying spree.Nasdaq hits new high at 20,730.49; Dow rebounds to 44,254.78The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield fell to 4.46%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.46%, although dollar strength paused.USD/JPY just ahead of 149 yenGold and crude oil both remained in a tug-of-war phase. Both gold and crude oil were little changed, with inflation fears and monetary policy uncertainty in a tug-of-war phase.
equity
index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
---|---|---|---|
New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,254.78 | ▲231.49 (+0.53 %) | Buyback after Powell dismissal speculation |
S&P 500 | 6,263.70 | -19.94 (+0.32 %) | Financials down but healthcare tech high |
Nasdaq Composite | 20,730.49 | -52.69 (+0.26 %) | Semiconductors and megatech led the highest price |
Nikkei 225 | 39,663.40 | ▼14.62 (-0.04 %) | Slight drop due to lull in yen depreciation |
Stoxx Europe 600 | 544.46 | ▼0.49 (-0.09 %) | ASML plummets to tech-led low |
Funds are concentrated in large U.S. tech, while Europe is higher due to tech earnings disappointments.
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond 4.46 % (▼3 bp) - Temporary buying ahead on reports of Powell's dismissal
- German 10-year bond 2.70 % (-1 bp) - Slight decline on economic concerns
- Japan 10-year bond 1.58 % (-1 bp) - Buyback due to a lull in yen weakness
exchange (e.g. foreign)
Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
---|---|---|---|
USD/JPY | 149.04 | +0.11 % | Interest rate differential awareness, but dollar's strength pauses |
EUR/USD | 1.1623 | +0.22 % | Dollar falls back, Euro rebounds slightly |
USD/CNY | 7.168 | 0.0 % | Flattened by the People's Bank of China's efforts to curb yuan depreciation |
Commodities (closing price/day before)
list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
---|---|---|---|
WTI crude oil | $66.65/bbl | +0.2 % | Firm bottoming out due to inventory decline report |
Brent Crude Oil | $68.60/bbl | +0.1 % | Factoring in Middle East risks |
natural gas | $3.55/MMBtu | +1.1 % | Summer Demand Forecast |
money (written before an amount) | $3,355/oz | +0.5 % | Buy safe as dollar declines |
silver | $38.42/oz | +0.8 % | precious metal carry |
copper | $5.51/lb | -0.3 % | Selling for profit at high prices |
crypto
- bitcoin: $119,500 (+2.0 %) - Buy back on regulatory bill moving forward
- ethereum$3,025 (+1.6 %) - ETH ETF expectations continue
Macro Event Focus
- July 17 (Thursday) U.S. Housing Starts, New Unemployment Insurance Applications
- Friday, 7/18 China Q2 GDP, U.S. June existing home sales
- 7/19 (Sat.) G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Rio)
- 7/22 (Mon.) Preliminary U.S. PMI, Preliminary European PMI
Insight Summary
- Interest Rate Fluctuation due to Powell Personnel Riots: U.S. 10-year yield near 4.51 TP3T is a ceiling material for stocks. Long-term bonds are effective for push-back.
- U.S. Tech Dominance Continues: Higher prices of generated AI-related products led the index. The declining phase is picked up in stages by ETFs.
- Dollar strength observed peaking outJPY: The dollar is sluggish just ahead of 149 yen. Considering taking profits on some of the yen selling positions.
- Commodities are in sideways territoryCrude oil and gold are in a narrow range. Hedging options are effective in case of sudden changes.
- Crypto high price waveBTC: Continued attack on the $120,000 mark. Thorough risk management by setting stops.
Market Insights Infographic
Analysis Date: 2025/07/16
Overall Mood Today
Although reports of "Powell's dismissal" caused temporary turbulence in the market, investor sentiment quickly recovered after President Trump's denial of the news. Buying was strong, especially in high-tech stocks. The Nasdaq hit a new high and the Dow also rebounded. On the other hand, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell and the dollar's strength paused. The day was marked by different developments in each market due to a mixture of inflation fears and uncertainty about the future of monetary policy.
Key Indicators
New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average)
44,254.78
+231.49 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq Composite
20,730.49
+52.69 (+0.26%)
U.S. 10-year bond yield
4.46%
-3 bp
USD/JPY
149.04
+0.11%
Stock Market Performance
This section delves into the major global stock markets in detail. Interactive charts compare the performance of each index, and detailed data tables show closing prices and factors contributing to fluctuations. Today's concentration of capital in U.S. tech stocks was particularly pronounced.
index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
---|---|---|
New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,254.78 | +0.53% |
S&P 500 | 6,263.70 | +0.32% |
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 20,730.49 | +0.26% |
Nikkei 225 | 39,663.40 | -0.04% |
Europe 600 | 544.46 | -0.09% |
Funds are concentrated in large U.S. tech, while Europe is on the upside due to disappointment in tech earnings.
Fixed Income & Currency Markets
Interest rates and currency movements are closely related. Here we explore this relationship by displaying side-by-side developments in government bond yields and exchange rates in major countries, where news reports about the appointment of the Fed chairman have induced bond buying (lower yields) and caused the dollar to pause in its appreciation.
Major bond yields
U.S. 10-year Treasury note:. 4.46% (▼3 bp) - Buyers ahead on personnel reports
German 10-year bond:. 2.70% (▼1 bp) - Slight decline due to economic concerns
Japan 10-year bond:. 1.58% (▼1 bp) - Buyback due to a lull in yen depreciation
Main Exchange Rates
USD/JPY: USD/JPY: USD/JPY 149.04 (+0.11%) - Interest rate differential awareness, but dollar strength pauses
EUR/USD:. 1.1623 (+0.22%) - Dollar falls back, Euro rebounds slightly
USD/CNY: USD/CNY 7.168 (0.0%) - Flat due to the People's Bank of China's efforts to curb yuan depreciation
Commodities & Crypto Assets
We analyze trends in the commodity market, which is a notable inflation indicator, and crypto assets, which represent risk assets. Crude oil was firm on lower inventories, while gold rose on the back of a weaker dollar. Crypto assets, on the other hand, were buoyed by news related to regulation and showed signs of a buyback.
list of articles | compared to previous day |
---|---|
WTI crude oil | +0.2% |
money (written before an amount) | +0.5% |
copper | -0.3% |
bitcoin | +2.0% |
ethereum | +1.6% |
Insights & Future Highlights
We have compiled key insights from today's market developments and key economic events for the coming days. We use this information to help you make strategic investment decisions.
Today's Insights
- 1.Interest rate risk: Interest rate risk The furor over the Powell chairmanship appointment suggests that political risk is directly linked to interest rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near 4.51 TP3T will weigh on stock prices, and long-term bonds may be a good opportunity for a push.
- 2.U.S. Tech Dominance Continues:. Continued inflows of funds into stocks related to generated AI are driving the overall market. A strategy of buying related ETFs in stages is effective during the adjustment phase.
- 3.Dollar peak out:. USD/JPY is sluggish just before 149 yen. Aware of the turning point in the trend toward a stronger dollar, some profit-taking in yen selling positions is also a possibility.
- 4.Commodity Stability:. Crude oil and gold are moving in a narrow range. Hedging with options is effective in preparation for sudden changes in geopolitical risks, etc.
- 5.Crypto high alert:. BTC is on the attack before $120,000. Risk should be managed thoroughly with stop loss orders to prepare for increased volatility.
Macro Event Focus
- 7/17 (Thu)U.S. Housing Starts, New Unemployment Insurance Applications
- 7/18 (Fri.)China Q2 GDP, U.S. June existing home sales
- 7/19 (Sat)G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Rio)
- 7/22 (Mon.)U.S./Europe PMI Preliminary