This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 2025/07/17)
| description | theme | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALAB | AI Semiconductor | +23.26 % | Buyers concentrate on the news of the rating upgrade and new head office. |
| ABCL | Antibody Drug Discovery | +14.96 % | Multiple upgrades bring the year to a new high. |
| sadist | cyber security | +9.83 % | Surge on Palo Alto acquisition speculation |
| RXRX | AI Drug Discovery | +9.59 % | AI drug discovery expectations and continued high volume |
| PL | satellite data | +3.53 % | 240 million € contract for the German government reported |
| ARM | Semiconductor IP | +3.30 % | Continued growth in AI infrastructure demand expectations |
| BYND | meat substitute | +17.14 % | Rapid growth on institutional buying and high volume |
| XYZ | digital payment | +7.22 % | S&P 500 inclusion decision report Index-linked buy |
market insight
general mood
The U.S. S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new daily highs, while the Dow fell slightly. Lower long-term interest rates eased the valuation burden and continued tech-driven risk appetite. The contrast between soft crude oil and high metals reflects both the slowdown in inflation and the resilience of the economy at the same time. Bond buying and precious metals buying coexist in a "balanced risk-on" portfolio.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | One word background | cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,323.07 | -19.12 pt (-0.04%) | defensive stock selling | small outflow of funds |
| S&P 500 | 6,305.60 | +8.81 pt (+0.14%) | High-tech and telecommunications services buying | inflow of capital |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 20,974.17 | +78.51 pt (+0.38%) | Alphabet Earnings Expectations | inflow of capital |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,790.50 | -28.61 pt (-0.07%) | watch out for the appreciation of the yen | financing arrangement |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 547.15 | +0.03% | Watching before earnings announcements | neutrality |
bond
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note falls to 4.38%, safe-haven demand prevails. German 10yr Bundt yield fell sharply to 2.62%, position adjustment ahead of ECB meeting. Japan 10yr JGB at 1.52%, supported by a retreat from policy revisions. Lower yields support equity PER expansion.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- Dollar/Yen 147.40 (-0.71%) - Dollar selling dominated by lower U.S. interest rates.
- Euro/U.S. dollar 1.1695 (+0.561 TP3T) - Hawkish speculation ahead of ECB meeting.
- Dollar/Yuan 7.1764 (-0.021 TP3T) - Rangebound on the People's Bank of China's interim price stabilization measures.
The weak dollar and strong euro are tailwinds for risk assets.
commodity
| description | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $65.83 | -0.53% | Weakness in Chinese import indicators |
| Brent. | $69.21 | -0.23% | Supply Outlook Easing |
| Natural gas (HH) | $3.330 | -1.80% | high inventory |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,410.92 | +1.66% | U.S. yields fall |
| silver | $39.295 | +2.16% | Industrial Demand Expectations |
| copper | $5.6293 | +0.94% | Recovery of infrastructure demand |
crypto
- bitcoin $117,388 (+0.081 TP3T) - Stable, with the upside heavy before $120,000.
- ethereum $3,761 (+0.111 TP3T) - firm on L2-related upgrade expectations.
Risk tolerance is maintained, but new capital inflows are limited.
Macro Event Focus (7/22-7/25)
- 7/23 U.S., Eurozone, U.K., Japan Preliminary PMI-Examines the spread of the manufacturing recovery.
- July 23-24ECB Executive Board-For the first time since the July strategy revision, the 0.251 TP3T rate cut and the unchanged rate were observed to be close.
- Jul. 24 U.S.A. New home sales(June) - Will the slowdown in housing indicators continue?
- Jul. 24 U.S.A. Weekly New Unemployment Insurance Applications-Measure the degree of labor market distress.
- 7/25 U.S. Durable Goods Orders-Confirmation of momentum in corporate capital investment.
Assumed scenario: PMI is the turning point; if weak, interest rates fall and growth stocks tailwind due to renewed expectations of rate cuts / If strong, commodities and economically sensitive stocks dominate.
Insight Summary
- stock (company)We believe that the US tech market will continue to be dominated by lower interest rates and expectations for AI-related results, and that it is reasonable to maintain a growth stock ratio while being aware of the risk of an upward swing in the S&P 500's P/E ratio.
- bondThe 10-year yield around 4.4% in the U.S. is at the lower end of the medium-term range. We would like to hedge the combination of German bonds and JGBs on a duration-neutral basis.
- exchange (e.g. foreign): Dollar index soft. Long euro/short dollar is dominant in the short term. Dollar/JPY is likely to accelerate CTA selling if it falls below 147 yen.
- commodityOil: Crude oil weakened as supply and demand eased. Gold and silver have buying opportunities as real interest rates decline.
- crypto: Physical ETF fund flows stall, bitcoin confirms $120,000 upside resistance. Ether is relatively strong on Shanghai upgrade expectations.
strategic suggestionDiversified risk-on position is effective: 60% equities (including 40% U.S. growth), 30% bonds (U.S. mid- to long-term 7:Europe 2:Japan 1), and 10% commodities (mainly gold and copper).
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