This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 07/22/2025)
| description | theme | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPRO | action camera | +41.03 % | 41% surged on high volume, up 5 days |
| DNA | synthetic biology | +17.93 % | Technical buying following RS upgrade |
| BITF | Bitcoin Mining | +16.81 % | Strong buying following decision to begin share buybacks |
| QS | solid-state battery | +10.22 % | Volume surged and rebounded |
| NOC | Defense Aerospace | +9.41 % | Profit forecast revised upward, strong demand for weapons |
| OSCR | HealthInsureTech | +7.93 % | Rebound due to surge in trading volume |
| ALBA | mineral exploration | +7.89 % | Continued daily rise |
| W | EC Furniture | +7.11 % | BofA expects strong Q2 sales, upside |
market insight
general mood
S&P 500 is 0.11 TP3T higher for the third straight dayand the Dow also rose 0.4% to a one-step higher. In contrast.Nasdaq fell 0.4%The Japanese stocks were down 0.41 TP3T in the first half of the year, with profit-taking selling in AI-related sectors. In Europe, the STOXX 600 was down 0.41 TP3T due to weak chemical stocks, while Japanese stocks were slightly lower due to a lack of material after the election passed. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note wasDecreased to 4.34%The U.S. dollar softens and gold rises again, while crude oil softens to $65. Gold rallied again as the dollar softened, while oil softened to the $65 level. Sentiment was "not so positive.Quiet Risk OnWhile maintaining the "1", there is a more selective tone ahead of earnings results and the ECB event.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,502.44 | +179.37 (+0.40%) | Capital Goods & Pharmaceuticals Firm |
| S&P 500 | 6,309.62 | +4.02 (+0.06%) | Continued inflow of funds to large tech highs |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 20,892.68 | -81.49 (-0.39%) | Semiconductor adjustment and switching to better-performing stocks |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,774.92 | -15.58 (-0.04%) | Digestion game, yen's appreciation pauses |
| STOXX600 | 544.34 | -2.24 (-0.41%) | Chemical and pharmaceutical sectors stall |
Funds returned to U.S. large-tech and European defensives, while Asia was directionless.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (㌽) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.337% | -0.04 | Buying dominance due to slowing inflation |
| Germany | 2.63% | +0.01 | Slight rise on ECB meeting alert |
| Japan | 1.51% | -0.01 | Expectations of Bank of Japan purchases underpinned |
Long-term interest rates fall - supporting stock PER, gold market follows suitThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.17 (-0.2%): U.S. interest rates fall, dollar weakens ahead of schedule
- EUR/USD 1.1694 (-0.01%)ECB: Flat, factoring in ECB hawkishness
- usd/cny 7.175 (-0.02%): range continues with mid-term Bank of China price stable
commodity
| list of articles | Closing price(USD) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 65.64 | -0.31 (-0.47%) | Concerns about demand due to trade friction with the EU |
| Brent Crude Oil | 68.97 | -0.24 (-0.35%) | same as above |
| natural gas | 3.258 | -0.029 (-0.9%) | High Inventory + Cool Summer Forecast |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,439.47 | +28.55 (+0.84%) | Tailwind of lower real interest rates |
| silver | 39.648 | +0.353 (+0.90%) | Industrial Demand Expectations |
| copper | 5.781 | +0.02 (+0.35%) | China Infrastructure Expectations Continue |
crypto
- Bitcoin: $117,483 (+0.2%) - Holding high in a narrow range
- Ethereum: $3,765 (+0.2%) - Steady due to L2 demand and ETF inflows Maintain risk tolerance, funds are circulating around Ether.
Macro Event Focus (7/23-7/26)
- 7/23 Preliminary July PMI of each country(U.S., Eurozone, U.K., Japan) - Verify the degree to which the manufacturing sector has bottomed out
- Jul 23-24 ECB Governing Council meeting / Lagarde press conference-0.25% Focus on whether rate cuts are made and forward guidance
- Jul. 24 U.S. New Home Sales (Jun)-Measure the impact of rising interest rates
- Jul. 25 U.S. durable goods orders (Jun)-Confirms momentum of capital investment cycle
Insight Summary
- stock (company): U.S. Growth dominance persists due to lower interest rates and AI earnings expectations. Push is centered on large tech & telecom services.
- bond: U.S. 10-year at 4.3% is the lower end of the range. Slightly longer duration + German bond hedge to gain carry.
- exchange (e.g. foreign): Dollar softness - short term isLong euro / Buy back yenphase of the test.
- commodity: Crude oil is higher due to easing supply/demand, but call spreads are a good hedge against Middle East risk. Gold and silver continue to push higher.
- cryptoBTC: BTC confirms heaviness before $120,000, but supported by ETF flows; ETH eyes $4,000, upside momentum strong; BTC confirms weight before $120,000, but supported by ETF flows; ETH eyes $4,000, upside momentum strong.
Recommended PortfolioMaintain diversified risk-on with: equities 60% (US growth 40, Europe defensive 20), bonds 30% (US mid-term 70, Germany 20, Japan 10), and commodities 10% (gold 6, copper 2, oil 2).
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