market analysis

U.S. stocks rose to a new NASDAQ high and the S&P 500 continued to rise. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly to 4.36%, the dollar remained strong at 146 yen per dollar, WTI crude was down 2%, gold rose, and funds were selectively flowing into large tech and resource stocks.

U.S. stocks rose to a new NASDAQ high and the S&P 500 continued to rise. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly to 4.36%, the dollar remained strong at 146 yen per dollar, WTI crude was down 2%, gold rose, and funds were selectively flowing into large tech and resource stocks.

On July 9, 025, US stocks rebounded with the Dow +0.49% and S&P 500 +0.61%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.34% and the dollar was at 146 yen. Crude oil is slightly lower while copper is at an all-time high on tariff speculation. Risk-on resumes, but tariff risk remains a key concern.

On July 8, 025, the Dow was down 0.37% due to tariff risks, the S&P was slightly lower, and the NASDAQ was slightly higher. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.42% and the dollar was at 146 yen. Copper hit new highs and crude oil rebounded. Money is heading toward resources and European stocks, with a mixture of caution and resilience in the market.

On July 7, 2025, the dollar strengthened as the S&P 500 fell back to 6,229 on the Trump administration's new tariffs; bond buying was limited at 4.33% for 10-year Treasuries; oil bounced back against OPEC+ production increase. Overall, resource prices underpinned the market while tilting toward risk-off.

In a shortened week before U.S. Independence Day, the tech-driven S&P 500 hit a record high. While dollar weakness paused, long-term interest rates diverged between the U.S.↑Europe and the U.S.↓Europe, and crude oil and metals rebounded. While the selective risk-on trend continued, the yen continued to fall to the 144-yen level.

On July 3, 2025, the U.S. tech-driven S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.35% and the dollar is soft at 144 yen. Crude oil is down slightly, but gold is firm and selective risk-on continues. CPI and OPEC+ in focus after the Independence Day holiday.

On July 2, 2025, the market was buoyed by U.S. tech buying, with the S&P 500 hitting new highs and risk-on accelerating. The yen and the euro held at ¥143 and $1.18, respectively, amid a weaker dollar. Crude oil and copper rebounded, and safe-haven assets were also firm at $3,350. Employment data and OPEC+ meeting are next in focus.

Markets on June 30, 2025 saw the U.S. dollar index soften to the 96 level on lower U.S. long-term interest rates; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs led by the generation AI; the Nikkei 225 also rose on the back of a weaker yen. Gold was bought on dollar weakness, while crude oil was slightly lower. The market environment is described as a mixture of risk asset preference and a return to quality.

Crude oil plunged -5% weekly on Israel-Iran ceasefire speculation and inflation fears receded. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.25%, led by the S&P 500 +11% weekly amid a weaker dollar, and the generative AI-related market. Diversification of funds into gold and bitcoin also continued, strengthening the risk-on market.