market analysis

On August 1, the S&P 500 and Dow plunged 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, on a combination of sharply lower employment data and additional tariffs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.37%, but the dollar remained strong, oil soft, and gold flat. Risk-off was evident, and stocks at high levels became more selective.

On July 31, the market remained higher with the Dow down 0.7% and the S&P 500 down only 0.4% as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.37% and the dollar continued to strengthen. The Nikkei 225 rose 1% to 41,000 on the back of a weaker yen. Energy was firm at $69 WTI, while Bitcoin hovered near $118,500, and risk appetite became more selective.

On July 30, 2025, the dollar strengthens as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 4.37% without any indication of when the FOMC will cut rates after passing the FOMC meeting; the S&P 500 remains higher with a small decline of -0.1%; and selective buying continues in the mega tech sector. Crude oil rises above the $70 level, while gold adjusts to $3,352, but selective risk-on continues.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell back after a series of rallies and adjusted higher. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.33%, the dollar softened, and crude oil surged to the $69 level. Gold rallied slightly, keeping markets quietly risk-on ahead of the FOMC meeting.

On July 28, 2025, markets follow the U.S.-EU tariff agreement with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ at consecutive highs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.42%, the dollar softens, and oil rebounds to the mid-$65 range, while gold adjusts to $3,310. Quiet risk-on continues, albeit at higher prices.

On July 25, 2025, the U.S. stocks are at five-day highs on good earnings and progress in tariff negotiations, with the S&P 500 at its highest level in five days. The U.S. dollar strengthens while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declines to 4.39% and oil falls to the $65 level. Gold is looking for a push as selective risk-on continues.

On July 24, 2025, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new highs again on good high-tech earnings and progress in tariff talks. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.41%, strengthening the dollar, and oil rebounded to the $66 level. Gold, on the other hand, was soft and the market remained selectively risk-on.

The Dow hit the 45,000 level and the S&P 500 reached new highs on the strength of the U.S.-Japan trade agreement. The U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.38% on bond selling, while the dollar softened and gold and silver held firm. Crude oil rebounded to the $65/bbl level, and investors are becoming more selective while risk-on continues.

On July 22, 2025, the markets adjusted with the S&P 500 reaching new daily highs, while the NASDAQ adjusted. Gold and silver rallied as the U.S. dollar weakened on lower 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The balanced risk-on market continues, with oil softening to the $65/bbl level, while stocks are strong, led by large tech.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new highs. High-tech stocks, gold, and silver were bought as U.S. long-term interest rates fell, while crude oil fell back on signs of easing supply-demand balance. The market is "balanced" with risk-on, but also with a preference for safe assets.