July 3, 2025 Market Insights｜S&P and Nasdaq tops, dollar softens and oil falls back, but risk-on continues

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

market insight

general mood

U.S. Stocks Receive Strong Jobs ReportS&P 500 (6,279.36) and Nasdaq Composite (20,601.10) at record highsThe market was led by the AI-related sector, such as NVIDIA. Volume was firm despite the early close, with AI-related companies such as NVIDIA leading the gains. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 5bp to 4.35%, a tug of war between inflation fears and economic resilience. The dollar weakened against major currencies, and in commodity markets, gold was firm while crude oil fell slightly.Moderate risk-oncontinued, with funds selectively flowing into high-tech and commodities.

equity

index	closing price (stock exchange, etc.)	compared to previous day	background
New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average)	44,828.53	(0.77) %	Economically sensitive stocks and financials follow
S&P 500	6,279.36	(0.83) %	Continued buying in AI semiconductors and megatech
Nasdaq Composite	20,601.10	▲1.02 %	Led by NVIDIA, Apple, etc.
Nikkei 225	39,785.90	▲0.06 %	Continued yen depreciation, but a lull in semiconductors
Stoxx Europe 600	543.76	(0.47) %	Inflow of funds to banks and renewable energy

Fund Flow: Diversification into European value stocks, with an emphasis on North American high-tech.

bond

U.S. 10-year bond 4.35 % (+0.05 %) - Yields rise on strong employment indicators
German 10-year bond 2.58 % (-0.01 %) - Fiscal expansion concerns pause
Japan 10-year bond 1.44 % (-0.01 %) - Additional BOJ rate hike suppressed

Preference for safe assets receded and real interest rates rose moderately.

exchange (e.g. foreign)

Currency Pairs	closing price (stock exchange, etc.)	compared to previous day	Comment
USD/JPY	144.92	+1.06 %	Awareness of interest rate differentials but limited upside due to dollar weakness
EUR/USD	1.1761	-0.38 %	Eurozone Inflation Slowing Maintains Resilience
USD/CNY	7.1644	-0.01 %	The People's Bank of China's stance of restraining the depreciation of the yuan will be effective.

Commodities (closing price/day before)

list of articles	closing price (stock exchange, etc.)	compared to previous day	driver (of a vehicle)
WTI crude oil	$67.00	-0.67 %	OPEC+ production increase and U.S. tariff concerns
Brent Crude Oil	$68.80	-0.45 %	same as above
natural gas	$3.409	-2.3 %	Cooling demand forecast recession
money (written before an amount)	$3,342.90	+0.4 %	Buybacks mirroring dollar softening
silver	$36.87	+0.11 %	Precious metal-linked follow-on purchases
copper	$5.09/lb	-1.12 %	Adjustment due to concerns over rising Chinese inventories

crypto

bitcoin：$110,105 (+3.8 %) - Recovery to the $110,000 level due to ETF inflows
ethereum$2,605 (+8.3 %) - Buy in anticipation of major upgrades

Higher risk tolerance spills over into digital assets.

Macro Event Focus

Friday, July 04 U.S. markets closed (Independence Day)
Friday, July 04 ECB Board of Governors Meeting Minutes released
7/05 (Sat.) OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)
July 07 (Mon.) China's June Trade Balance
Tuesday, 7/08 U.S. FOMC Minutes (June Meeting)
7/09 (Wed.) U.S. June CPI

Insight Summary

Sustained strength in U.S. high-tech: As long as the generated AI theme gains traction, push-buying works in index-linked ETFs.
The Strangeness of Commodity DiversificationOil price adjustment is a good time to stock up on natural resource stocks. Long-term demand for electrification will support copper despite short-term weakness.
Building a weak dollar position: Long yen and euro blended with some emerging market currencies.
Bonds are shorter durationThe 3-5 year zone is the center of the market, taking into account the room for US and German yields to rise.
Crypts are moderately weightedBTC: ETF inflows will support the market in the medium to long term, with attention to the attack and defense of the BTC psychological milestone.

Market Insights Infographic

Analysis Date: 2025/07/03

general mood

U.S. stocks hit record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on strong employment data. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose, and inflation fears and economic resilience are in a tug-of-war. The dollar weakened and commodity markets saw a small decline in crude oil, while gold held firm. Moderate risk-on continues, with funds selectively flowing into tech and commodities.