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July 3, 2025 Market Insights|S&P and Nasdaq tops, dollar softens and crude oil falls back, but risk-on continues

July 3, 2025 Market Insights|S&P and Nasdaq tops, dollar softens and crude oil falls back, but risk-on continuesmarket analysis

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

market insight

general mood

U.S. Stocks Receive Strong Jobs ReportS&P 500 (6,279.36) and Nasdaq Composite (20,601.10) at record highsThe market was led by the AI-related sector, such as NVIDIA. Volume was firm despite the early close, with AI-related companies such as NVIDIA leading the gains. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 5bp to 4.35%, a tug of war between inflation fears and economic resilience. The dollar weakened against major currencies, and in commodity markets, gold was firm while crude oil fell slightly.Moderate risk-oncontinued, with funds selectively flowing into high-tech and commodities.

equity

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daybackground
New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average)44,828.53(0.77) %Economically sensitive stocks and financials follow
S&P 5006,279.36(0.83) %Continued buying in AI semiconductors and megatech
Nasdaq Composite20,601.10▲1.02 %Led by NVIDIA, Apple, etc.
Nikkei 22539,785.90▲0.06 %Continued yen depreciation, but a lull in semiconductors
Stoxx Europe 600543.76(0.47) %Inflow of funds to banks and renewable energy

Fund Flow: Diversification into European value stocks, with an emphasis on North American high-tech.

bond

  • U.S. 10-year bond 4.35 % (+0.05 %) - Yields rise on strong employment indicators
  • German 10-year bond 2.58 % (-0.01 %) - Fiscal expansion concerns pause
  • Japan 10-year bond 1.44 % (-0.01 %) - Additional BOJ rate hike suppressed

Preference for safe assets receded and real interest rates rose moderately.

exchange (e.g. foreign)

Currency Pairsclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous dayComment
USD/JPY144.92+1.06 %Awareness of interest rate differentials but limited upside due to dollar weakness
EUR/USD1.1761-0.38 %Eurozone Inflation Slowing Maintains Resilience
USD/CNY7.1644-0.01 %The People's Bank of China's stance of restraining the depreciation of the yuan will be effective.

Commodities (closing price/day before)

list of articlesclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daydriver (of a vehicle)
WTI crude oil$67.00-0.67 %OPEC+ production increase and U.S. tariff concerns
Brent Crude Oil$68.80-0.45 %same as above
natural gas$3.409-2.3 %Cooling demand forecast recession
money (written before an amount)$3,342.90+0.4 %Buybacks mirroring dollar softening
silver$36.87+0.11 %Precious metal-linked follow-on purchases
copper$5.09/lb-1.12 %Adjustment due to concerns over rising Chinese inventories

crypto

  • bitcoin:$110,105 (+3.8 %) - Recovery to the $110,000 level due to ETF inflows
  • ethereum$2,605 (+8.3 %) - Buy in anticipation of major upgrades

Higher risk tolerance spills over into digital assets.

Macro Event Focus

  • Friday, July 04 U.S. markets closed (Independence Day)
  • Friday, July 04 ECB Board of Governors Meeting Minutes released
  • 7/05 (Sat.) OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)
  • July 07 (Mon.) China's June Trade Balance
  • Tuesday, 7/08 U.S. FOMC Minutes (June Meeting)
  • 7/09 (Wed.) U.S. June CPI

Insight Summary

  1. Sustained strength in U.S. high-tech: As long as the generated AI theme gains traction, push-buying works in index-linked ETFs.
  2. The Strangeness of Commodity DiversificationOil price adjustment is a good time to stock up on natural resource stocks. Long-term demand for electrification will support copper despite short-term weakness.
  3. Building a weak dollar position: Long yen and euro blended with some emerging market currencies.
  4. Bonds are shorter durationThe 3-5 year zone is the center of the market, taking into account the room for US and German yields to rise.
  5. Crypts are moderately weightedBTC: ETF inflows will support the market in the medium to long term, with attention to the attack and defense of the BTC psychological milestone.

Market Insights Infographic

Analysis Date: 2025/07/03

general mood

米国株は好調な雇用統計を受けてS&P500とナスダック総合が過去最高値を更新。米10年債利回りは上昇し、インフレ懸念と景気底堅さが綱引き状態。ドルは弱含み、商品市況は原油が小反落する一方、金は底堅い。適度なリスクオンが続き、資金はハイテクとコモディティに選別的に流入。

Equity (Shares)

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous day

cash flow

bond

Market Overview

exchange (e.g. foreign)

Currency Pairsclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous day

commodity

list of articlesclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous day

Crypto (crypto assets)

Market Overview

Macro Event Focus

Insight Summary

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