This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 07/24/2025)
| description | theme | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| BE | fuel cell | +22.95 % | Q2 earnings expectations and fuel cell demand reports |
| IPX | Titanium Recycling | +12.77 % | Accelerated production with $46 million private placement financing |
| OKLO | small nuclear reactor | +11.38 % | Liberty Energy Alliance to Deploy Fast Reactors |
| LTBR | Next Generation Fuel | +8.02 % | Continued inflow of funds after adoption of Russell Index |
| ALB | lithium chemistry | +6.84 % | RBC target raised to $80, lithium strengthening |
| SMR | small nuclear reactor | +6.65 % | 77 MWe design NRC approval to continue buying |
| OUST | 3D LiDAR Sensor | +6.19 % | Blue UAS selection expected to generate defense demand |
| LEU | enriched uranium | +5.59 % | Rising uranium prices and bullish valuation tailwind |
| DNA | synthetic biology | +5.37 % | 7 days of growth due to reports of institutional buying |
market insight
general mood
S&P 500 and NASDAQ again.Record highsThe market was buoyed by strong earnings and progress in the U.S. and European tariff talks. Good earnings and progress in U.S.-European tariff talks were buying factors, and tech-driven risk appetite continued. The Dow, on the other hand, was -0.701 TP3Tand retrograde weakness, weighed by selling of stocks with disappointing earnings. In EuropeSTOXX600 was 0.241 TP3T higher at 551.55and Japanese stocks also rose, mainly export-related stocks. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury noteInterest rates rose +2bp to 4.41% level, reflecting risk-on. The dollar was slightly higher against the yen and flat against the euro. Commodity markets were diversified with oil higher and gold softer,Risk-on with selective colorationis the main line.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,694.09 | -316.20 pt (-0.70%) | Selling Pressure on Issues with Unsuccessful Financial Results |
| S&P 500 | 6,363.39 | +4.48 pt (+0.07%) | Megatech continues to buy |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,057.96 | +37.94 pt (+0.18%) | Semiconductor and AI-related high |
| Nikkei 225 | 41,826.34 | +655.02 pt (+1.59%) | Export Stocks Sought on Expectations of Tariff Easing |
| STOXX600 | 551.55 | +1.33 pt (+0.24%) | Supported by high chemical and auto stocks |
In the U.S., funds flowed into growth stocks, Europe was led by economically sensitive stocks, and Japan was led by exports to higher prices.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.41% | +2 | Selling dominated by risk appetite |
| Germany | 2.68% | ECB unchanged and on an upward trend | |
| Japan | 1.60% | Observations of BOJ normalization continue |
Long-term interest rates rose in the same direction in major countries, and the preference for safe assets receded.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.92 (+0.29%): US interest rates are rising and the dollar has a buying advantage.
- EUR/USD 1.1757 (-0.11%): No movement with the ECB unchanged.
- usd/cny 7.1509 (-0.33%): The yuan strengthened on the People's Bank of China's maintenance stance.
Commodities (Major commodities)
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 66.03 USD/bbl | +1.20% | Inventory decline, trade optimism |
| Brent Crude Oil | 69.18 USD/bbl | +0.98% | Russia Supply Concerns |
| natural gas | 3.07 USD/MMBtu | -0.36 | Inventory increase and cool summer forecast |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,370.26 USD/oz | -0.51% | Adjustment due to rising interest rates |
| silver | 39.11 USD/oz | -0.37% | industrial demand strengthening |
| copper | 5.80 USD/lb | -0.19% | Profit Fixing at High Prices |
crypto
- Bitcoin 119,064 USD (+0.90%) - High range maintained.
- Ethereum 3,737 USD (+4.66%) - L2 demand and ETF inflows are tailwinds.
Macro Event Focus (7/25-7/29)
- 7/25 U.S. June Durable Goods Orders, Q2 GDP Preliminary Report: confirming the momentum and pace of growth in capital investment.
- 7/26 U.S. June Personal Income/PCE Deflator: Examining the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation.
- 7/29-30 FOMC Meeting: Policy rate is expected to remain unchanged, but focus on the statement and the range of dots to be revised.
- Jul. 29 Eurozone July Consumer Confidence (Confirmed): Explore the bottoming out of business confidence.
Insight Summary
- stock (company): Growth-driven at the highest levels. Large cap tech push dominance as long as earnings continue to be strong.
- bond: US 10-year near 4.4% is approaching the upper end of the range. Shortening duration and targeting credit spreads are effective.
- exchange (e.g. foreign): Dollar preference, but heavy upside. Short term.Long Euro / Short YenAiming for profit margins in the
- commodity: Crude oil is firm on supply concerns, while gold's upside is restrained by rising interest rates. Silver and copper are linked to Chinese demand.
- crypto: ETF funds support bitcoin. Ether is relatively strong on upgrade expectations.
portfolio suggestion: 55% equities (35% US tech, 10 European sensitive, 10 Japanese exports), 30% bonds (60 US mid-term, 20 German, 20 Japanese), 10% commodities (4 oil, 4 gold, 2 copper), 5% cash. Considering hedging downside with S&P 500 puts before the event.
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