This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 07/25/2025)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COUR | online learning | 12.37 | +36.23 % | Q2 results significantly beat, full-year forecast revised upward |
| MBOT | medical robot | 2.97 | +8.39 % | New VP Sales appointed to accelerate LIBERTY commercialization |
| ASPI | medical isotope | 10.47 | +8.39 % | Renergen Acquisition Approved by South African Competition Commission |
| NNE | small nuclear reactor | 41.85 | +7.45 % | Funding observed in $620 million shelf registration |
| NEM | gold mine | 65.75 | +6.89 % | Q2 profit forecast exceeded due to higher gold prices |
| STRL | Infrastructure Construction | 268.14 | +6.12 % | CEC Facilities Announces $505 Million Acquisition |
| SEZL | BNPL Fintech | 148.95 | +5.85 % | CNBC Top Fintech Selection Featured |
| vrt (videotape recorder) | Data Center Cooling | 137.47 | +5.04 % | Partnering with Oklo to enhance AI cooling solutions |
| CLS | EMS | 170.22 | +3.81 % | RBC target price raised to $185 |
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks areS&P 500 rose for the fifth day in a row to an all-time high at 6,388.64 (+0.40%). The Nasdaq was also higher at 21,108.32 (+0.24%), while the Dow was near its yearly high at 44,901.92 (+0.47%). Risk-on remained positive on strong earnings results and progress in tariff negotiations.
Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.391 TP3T (interest rates were down slightly) and demand for safe assets remained.
In Europe, the STOXX600 is down 548.16 (-0.6%) on weakness in auto stocks, while Japan is selling off gains at 41,456.23 (-0.74%).
In general, "U.S.-led selective risk-on" dominated the market.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | One word background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,901.92 | +208.01 (+0.47%) | Value-driven buyback |
| S&P 500 | 6,388.64 | +25.30 (+0.40%) | Driven by AI and telecommunication services |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,108.32 | +50.36 (+0.24%) | Continued expectations for semiconductor results |
| Nikkei 225 | 41,456.23 | -304.35 (-0.74%) | Selling for profit at high prices |
| STOXX600 | 548.16 | -3.29 (-0.60%) | Weak auto stocks, tariff warnings |
Funds are concentrated in U.S. megatech and some economic sensitivities, with a wait-and-see attitude in Europe and Asia.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.39% | -2 | Buying dominance due to slowing inflation |
| Germany | 2.72% | +2 | ECB unchanged |
| Japan | 1.60% | +3 | Conscious of BOJ normalization speculation |
Only U.S. Treasuries are firm, while safe asset preference is receding.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.92 (+0.21tpp3t): Dollar strengthens on expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a trade agreement.
- EUR/USD 1.1742 (-0.11%)ECB: Adjustment of positions before ECB meeting
- usd/cny 7.1509 (-0.02%)Yuan firms up due to the People's Bank of China's mid-term price stabilization measures.
commodity
| list of articles | Closing price(USD) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 65.16 | -1.32% | Inventory growth and demand concerns |
| Brent Crude Oil | 68.34 | -1.21% | same as above |
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | 3.11 | +0.52% | Increased demand for power generation |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,335.60 | -1.12% | Real interest rates fell, but the strong dollar sold off. |
| silver | 38.37 | -2.19% | Weak outlook for industrial demand |
| copper | 5.785 | -0.28% | tariffs are wary and the upside is heavy (e.g., tariffs on crude oil) |
crypto
- Bitcoin: 116,700 USD (-1.9%)-ETF inflows slowed to a crawl, restraining upside
- Ethereum: 3,346 USD (+0.5%)-Steady on L2 demand and upgrade expectations Speculative money circulated to large alts.
Macro Event Focus (7/28-7/31)
- 7/29 (Mon) U.S. July Consumer Confidence, German IFO Business Confidence-Focus on the degree of improvement in sentiment
- 7/30 (Tue) FOMC-The key is the range of the dot-plot revision, even though it is expected to remain unchanged.
- 7/31 (Wed) U.S. June JOLTS Job Openings, Eurozone Q2 GDP Preliminary Report, CPI Preliminary Report-Measuring labor supply and demand and the European economy
- Thursday, Aug. 1: Deadline for Trump administration tariffs against the EU to take effect.-Risk of increased volatility with or without final agreement
Insight Summary
- stock (company): U.S. megatech-led highs. Push-back advantage as long as earnings momentum continues.
- bond: US 10yr 4.4% is at the lower end of the range. Carry secured in the intermediate-term zone, targeting German bond spread.
- exchange (e.g. foreign): Dollar index is on an upward trend, but is still high. Short term.Long Euro / Short Yenis odd.
- commodity: Crude oil is testing the lower $65 area, while gold is waiting for a push.
- crypto: $120,000 is resistance for BTC, ETH is relative strength with $4,000 in sight.
strategic suggestionPortfolio allocation: 60% equities (US growth 40, Europe defensive 10, Japan exports 10), 30% bonds (US mid-term 60, Germany 25, Japan 15), 10% commodities (oil 4, gold 4, copper 2); utilized S&P 500 puts and dollar-yen calls before FOMC to mitigate event risk.
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