This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 07/28/2025)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI | AI Server | 60.05 | +10.24 % | Buying in anticipation of new highs and financial results |
| EDN | renewable energy | 28.49 | +6.90 % | Continued daily rise |
| CRDO | High Speed Interconnect | 107.95 | +6.65 % | Observation of PHY demand for AI |
| AMD | semiconductor | 173.66 | +4.32 % | AI chip price increase reports continue to increase |
| OLLI | discount retail | 139.34 | +4.20 % | Record highs and strong earnings |
| COHR | photonics | 104.30 | +4.15 % | Report on the operation of a new plant in Vietnam |
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks areS&P 500 and NASDAQ at their highest levels for the sixth consecutive business dayrenewal, while the Dow was slightly lower. Expectations for high-tech earnings and the U.S.-EU tariff agreement supported risk appetite, but profit-taking pushed the Dow lower. Europe.STOXX 600 continues to fall at -0.22%, waiting for more details on the US-Europe trade treaty. Japanese stocks adjusted -1.11 TP3T even after a pause in yen strength. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.42%and safe-haven asset purchases remain. The dollar weakened against the yen, while the euro settled at $1.17. Crude oil rebounded to mid-$65/bbl, while gold was sold3,310 U.S. dollarsTo. The overall market remained "high but quietly risk-on".
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,837.56 | -64.36 pt (-0.14%) | Defensive Earnings Disappointment Selling |
| S&P 500 | 6,389.77 | +1.13 pt (+0.02%) | New funds flowed into Megatech |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,178.58 | +70.26 pt (+0.33%) | Continued semiconductor and AI-related buying |
| Nikkei 225 | 40,998.27 | -457.96 pt (-1.10%) | Concerns about yen appreciation and adjustment to higher prices |
| STOXX600 | 548.76 | -1.19 pt (-0.22%) | Sold to Automotive and Materials |
Funds are concentrated in U.S. large tech and some economic sensitivities, with a wait-and-see attitude in Europe and Asia.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.42% | -4 | Buying dominance due to slowing inflation |
| Germany | 2.69% | +1 | Uptrend due to ECB caution |
| Japan | 1.60% | BOJ normalization speculation continues |
Only U.S. Treasuries strengthened in the long-term zoneand interest rates rose in Europe and Japan.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 148.50 (-0.1%): Dollar selling ahead due to lower U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1753 (+0.1%)Euro buying on the strength of the EU tariff agreement
- usd/cny 7.160 (-0.2%)Yuan firm due to the People's Bank of China's mid-term price stabilization measures
commodity
| list of articles | Closing Price (USD) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 65.38 | +0.22% | Demand expected from U.S.-EU agreement |
| Brent Crude Oil | 68.66 | +0.32% | same as above |
| Natural gas (HH) | 3.066 | -1.41% | Temperature drop forecast, inventory heavy |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,310.45 | -0.80% | Dollar strengthening, risk on |
| silver | 38.16 | -0.04% | Industrial Demand Uncertainty |
| copper | 5.60 | -3.23% | Adjustment due to China's reluctance to buy |
crypto
- Bitcoin: approx. $119,000 (+0.91 TP3T)-Return of risk funds due to the U.S.-EU agreement
- Ethereum $3,868 (+3%)-L2 demand and ETF inflows are driving the trend. While funds are circulating into large alts, BTC's upside is heavy around $120,000.
Macro Event Focus (7/29-8/1)
- 7/30 FOMC Meeting: Unchanged but watch for hawkish signals in the dot and statement.
- 7/31 U.S. June PCE Deflator, JOLTS Job Openings: Measuring Inflation and Labor Supply/Demand Temperatures
- Jul. 31 Preliminary Eurozone Q2 GDP and CPIVerification of the bottoming out of the economy
- Aug. 1 Deadline for U.S. tariffs on the EU to take effect: Risk of increased volatility depending on whether or not there is progress on the final agreement.
Insight Summary
- stock (company)The U.S. megatechs continue to dominate, but there is also a sense of caution about high prices. Pushes are centered on AI-related and telecommunication services.
- bond: US 10yr 4.4% gains carry at the lower end of the medium-term range and slightly longer duration.
- exchange (e.g. foreign): Dollar index soft. Short term.Long euro / Buy back yenis odd.
- commodity: Crude oil is pushing lower on demand expectations, while gold is looking for a push at around $3,300.
- crypto: BTC is aware of the $120,000 barrier, ETH is relatively strong on upgrade expectations.
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