This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 07/29/2025)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLS | AI Server EMS | 202.00 | +16.51 % | Favorable Q2 results and increased orders for AI servers |
| CYBR | cyber security | 434.48 | +13.47 % | PANW acquisition observation report |
| CDNS | EDA Software | 366.26 | +9.74 % | Q2 Beat & Guidanceup |
| CBRE | Real Estate Services | 158.05 | +7.84 % | Large-scale share buyback announced |
| sulfur oxide (SO, SO2, etc.) | EDA Software | 635.81 | +7.29 % | Highs, earnings expectations? |
| SOFI | FinTech | 22.40 | +6.57 % | Strong financial results & $1.5 billion public offering |
| TATT | Aircraft parts | 34.22 | +4.81 % | High price & volume increase |
| DAVE | digital banking | 220.23 | +3.33 % | Volume up, earnings expected? |
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks halted their streak.The S&P 500 ended a six-day gain at -0.30%The Nasdaq was also -0.381 TP3T, indicating clear gains ahead of high-tech earnings. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury noteDecreased to 4.33%The eurozone is +0.231 TP3T higher on the back of expectations for a tariff agreement. In the eurozone, the STOXX 600 is +0.231 TP3T higher, supported by expectations of a tariff agreement, while Japanese equities have adjusted -0.791 TP3T on yen strength and higher prices. Overall, "theRisk-on with a small pause despite high pricesis the underlying tone of the market.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background | cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,632.99 | -204.57 pt (-0.46%) | Medical and Transportation Financial Disappointment | small outflow |
| S&P 500 | 6,370.89 | -18.88 pt (-0.30%) | Position adjustment before FOMC meeting | neutrality |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,098.29 | -80.29 pt (-0.38%) | semiconductor lull | slowdown in capital inflows |
| Nikkei 225 | 40,674.55 | -0.79% | Yen appreciation and profit selling | adjustment |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 550.00 | +0.23% | Good corporate results | Slow inflow |
Selective buying continues for U.S. large tech, while value stocks are returning to the market. Temperature differences widen among regions.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.33% | -0.9 | Buying due to slowing inflation |
| Germany | 2.69% | +0.2 | Rising on ECB alert |
| Japan | 1.57% | +0.1 | Normalization speculation continues |
Only U.S. Treasuries were bought, while European and Japanese rates rose slightly. Safe-haven asset preference and policy discernment intersected.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- Dollar/Yen 148.51 (-0.14%) - Dollar softens on lower U.S. interest rates and intervention alert level.
- Euro/U.S. dollar 1.155 (+0.10%) - Euro firm on US-EU agreement.
- Dollar/Yuan 7.177 (-0.01%) - Narrow range with intermediate stabilizers.
commodity
| list of articles | Closing Price (USD) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 69.25 | +3.8% | Demand expected from US-EU tariff agreement |
| Brent Crude Oil | 71.77 | +3.5% | same as above |
| natural gas | 3.163 | +0.0% | Generation Demand Seasonal Factors |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,383.97 | +0.08% | Lower real interest rates support |
| silver | 38.38 | +0.23% | Industrial Demand Observation |
| copper | 5.65 | -0.26% | China's reluctance to buy |
crypto
- bitcoin $117,600 (-1.4%) - Upward movement was weak due to a slowdown in ETF inflows.
- ethereum $3,868 (+2.41 TP3T) - Supported by L2 growth and upgrade expectations.
Risk tolerance will be maintained, but new money will circulate into large alts such as ETH.
Macro Event Focus (7/30-8/2)
- 7/30 FOMC Meeting-The market is expected to remain unchanged. Watch for hawkish tone in the statement.
- 7/31 U.S. Q2 GDP Preliminary, PCE Deflator-Confirmation of the balance between growth and core inflation.
- 7/31 Preliminary GDP and CPI for Euro Area Q2-Verification of whether or not the economy has bottomed out.
- Aug. 1 Deadline for imposing additional tariffs against the EU-Risk of expansion of volatility if final agreement fails.
- Aug. 2 U.S. ISM Manufacturing, July-Evaluate the degree of improvement in inventory cycle and orders.
Insight Summary
- stock (company): U.S. megatech-driven uptrend holds, but room for higher volatility ahead of FOMC due to high prices. Push is centered on AI-related and telecom services.
- bond: U.S. 10-year 4.3% is the lower end of the range. Maintain neutral to slightly longer duration and use German bonds as a hedge.
- exchange (e.g. foreign): Dollar index soft. Short term.Long euro / Buy back yenThe second half of the yen/$/JPY range is a watch zone for intervention by the authorities. The upper ¥148 level of the dollar/yen is a caution zone for intervention by the authorities.
- commodityOil: Crude oil is back in front of $70, but the downside is limited as a hedge against geopolitical risk. Gold continues to push lower as interest rates decline.
- cryptoBTC is confirming $120,000 resistance; ETH is eyeing a break above $4,000.
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