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U.S. stocks slightly lower but holding steady at higher levels, with the dollar's single currency and 4.37% U.S. long-term interest rate sorting out funds (2025.07.30)

米株小反落も高値圏堅持、ドル独歩高と4.37%米長期金利が資金を選別(2025.07.31)market analysis

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)

Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 07/31/2025)

descriptionthemeclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)rate of returnPersonal note Insight
FIG. 1Design SaaS115.50+384.78 %IPO first day off to a good start
APLDAI Data Center13.14+31.01 %CoreWeave Contract Expansion
AMSCPower Grid56.85+29.38 %Rapid growth due to favorable financial results
INODAI Data Maintenance54.90+13.22 %earnings expectations
CRWVAI Infrastructure114.13+10.92 %Citi Upgrades
TMDXorgan transport118.97+10.46 %Q2 sales 38% increase
RBLXmetaverse137.79+10.28 %BofA Raises Price Target
COMPReal Estate Tech7.94+9.82 %Q2 sales 21% increase
WDCstorage78.69+10.16 %Q4 good results
APPMobile Advertising390.70+7.54 %Advertising Growth Expectations

market insight

general mood

The U.S. markets remained directionless and high after the FOMC meeting. Although Chairman Powell's comments, which did not hint at the timing of a rate cut, caused interest rates to pause their decline, the S&P 500 ended the day's rally with only a slight decline. The Nasdaq was slightly higher, and the inflow of tech-centered funds continued, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising to 4.37% (+2 bp from the previous day), and the dollar firmer against the yen and the euro. European stocks were mostly flat, while Japanese stocks were slightly lower. Overall, "selective risk-on under high price pressure" continued.

equity

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daybackground
Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones)44,461.28-177.85 pt (-0.40%)Selling of stocks with disappointing financial results prevails
S&P 5006,362.90-6.36 pt (-0.10%)Adjusting positions while waiting for FOMC meeting
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations21,129.67+21.13 pt (+0.10%)Semiconductor-driven buying
Nikkei 22540,654.70-19.85 pt (-0.05%)Strong Yen Alert and Profit Fixing
STOXX600550.24-0.12 pt (-0.02%)Waiting to see how the financial results will turn out.

Funds are weighted toward U.S. megatech. Europe and Japan are waiting for materials to move higher.

bond

home (i.e. hometown, home country)10-year yieldChange from previous day (bp)Comment
United States of America4.372%+2Powell's remarks set back expectations of interest rate cuts
Germany2.71%+3Rising moderately due to inflation concerns
Japan1.563%+0BOJ Normalization observation continues

Buyers of safe assets and factors that raise interest rates are competing with each other, and only U.S. Treasuries are supported by real demand.

exchange (e.g. foreign)

  • usd/jpy 149.33 (+0.62%)U.S. Dollar: Dollar buying advantage due to high U.S. interest rates
  • EUR/USD 1.1551 (-0.38%)FOMC: Dollar strengthens and Euro softens after FOMC meeting
  • usd/cny 7.1764 (+0.02%)Reflects the stability of the People's Bank of China's mid-term price

commodity

list of articlesClosing Price (USD)compared to previous daydriver (of a vehicle)
WTI crude oil70.00 /bbl+1.14%U.S.-Russia Tension and Demand Expectations
Brent Crude Oil73.24 /bbl+1.01%same as above
gold futures3,352.80 /oz-0.8%Adjustment before FOMC
physical silver36.97 /oz-3.2%Outflow of funds due to risk appetite
Copper (Comex)≈5.60 /lb-17%U.S. 50% Plunged due to tariff reduction

crypto

  • Bitcoin 117,100 USD (-0.8%)FOMC: temporarily below 116K after the FOMC meeting, but the price has been resisting the decline.
  • Ethereum 3,807 USD (+1.0%)The fund circulation to large alts continues, with a mix of strong and weak sentiment.

Macro Event Focus (7/31-8/2)

  • 7/31 U.S. Q2 GDP & PCE Deflators: confirm balance between growth and inflation
  • 7/31 Eurozone Q2 GDP Preliminary Report and CPI Preliminary Report: Verify whether the bottom is in or out
  • Aug. 1 Deadline for invoking tariffs on the U.S. and the EU: risk of volatility if final agreement fails
  • 8/2 US ISM Manufacturing: Focus on degree of improvement in orders and inventories

Insight Summary

  • Crypto: BTC sees upside resistance at $120,000; ETH looks to break through $4,000.
  • Stocks: continued concentration of funds in U.S. megatech, but risk of higher volatility at higher prices. Push is centered on AI and telecom services.
  • Bonds: U.S. 10-year 4.37% approaching the upper end of its medium-term range. Duration neutral, yield differentials on German bonds.
  • Forex: The dollar is strengthening, but intervention is still warranted at the ¥149 level. Long euro/short yen is the best bet for the short term.
  • Commodities: Crude oil is firm due to geopolitical risks, but sell off in the low $70s. Gold should be bought at the $3,300 level.
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