This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 08/01/2025)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | social media | 188.64 | +17.47 % | Q2 upswing due to strong AI advertising |
| NVT | Power Infrastructure | 89.88 | +14.61 % | Q2 Earnings Beat Concentrates Buying |
| LTRN | AI Drug Discovery | 4.77 | +7.43 % | Continued daily rise |
| FIG. 1 | Design SaaS | 122.00 | +5.63 % | Double-digit growth again on second day of IPO |
| ADMA | Biomedicine | 19.33 | +3.37 % | earnings expectations |
market insight
general mood
The sharp downturn in the U.S. July employment report coincided with the announcement of additional tariffs,3 major indices all down the most since the beginning of the yearThe S&P 500 was down 1.6% to 6,238.01, the Dow was down 1.2% to 43,588.58, and the NASDAQ was down 2.2% to 20,650.13. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.37%, suggesting safe-haven inflows while the dollar strengthened. The European STOXX 600 tumbled 535.79 (-2.63%) on tariff concerns. Japanese stocks continued to fall to 40,799.60 (-0.66%) as risk-off sentiment strengthened around the world.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | One word background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 43,588.58 | -542.40 (-1.2%) | Deteriorating employment and tariff uncertainty |
| S&P 500 | 6,238.01 | -101.38 (-1.6%) | Selling mainly high-beta stocks |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 20,650.13 | -472.32 (-2.2%) | Semiconductor and Cloud Gains |
| Nikkei 225 | 40,799.60 | -270.22 (-0.66%) | Linkage between strong yen and weak U.S. stock prices |
| STOXX600 | 535.79 | -14.45 (-2.63%) | Plunge led by automobiles and materials |
Funds retreated to defensive and US Treasuries, a clear brake on the tech-driven uptrend.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.37% | -1 | Weak employment rekindles interest rate cut speculation |
| Germany | 2.72% | +3 | Inflation sticky and rising |
| Japan | 1.56% | +0.4 | Observations of BOJ normalization continue |
Demand for safe assets and policy speculation are mixed, and the U.S.-German spread is narrowing.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- USD/JPY 147.38 (+0.67%): Continued dollar buying due to high U.S. interest rates and tariff risk
- EUR/USD 1.1586 (+1.49%): Weak U.S. employment unwinds shorts.
- usd/cny 7.2005 (+0.09%)Yuan selling pressure due to additional tariffs
commodity
| list of articles | Closing Price (USD) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 67.33 | -1.93% | Concerns about slowdown in demand |
| Brent Crude Oil | 71.72 | +0.03% | OPEC supply restriction expected |
| natural gas | 3.083 | -0.74% | Inventory Increase |
| money (written before an amount) | 3,346.00 | -0.10% | Strong dollar restrains upside |
| silver | 36.71 | Industrial demand concerns | |
| copper | 4.43 | -21% | Tariff Exemption Report Dissolves Ruling |
crypto
- Bitcoin $115,900 (-3%): Falling due to risk-off and lever dissolution.
- Ethereum $3,690 (-2%)ETFs: ETF funds thin, upside is heavy. Funds are defending mainly large-cap stocks, volatility surges.
Macro Event Focus (8/2-8/6)
- 8/2 (Sat) US ISM ManufacturingIf it falls below 50, fears of recession will resurface.
- 8/5 (Mon) U.S. June Manufacturing New OrdersCapital Investment Cycle Momentum Confirmation
- 8/6 (Tue) China July Trade StatisticsMeasuring tariff impacts
- Aug 6 (Tue) Australia RBA Policy RateAUD: If inflation slows, further AUD depreciation scenario
Insight Summary
- stock (company)High valuation correction phase. Short-term preference for defensive (healthcare and utilities) and quality-oriented U.S. large-cap stocks.
- bondThe 4.4% level for the 10-year U.S. is a good place for capital gains. Expanding duration and shifting to IG Credit is appropriate.
- exchange (e.g. foreign)The dollar will continue to trend higher, but the authorities will be wary of the yen approaching ¥150. We expect the euro to return around 1.16.
- commodityCrude oil is in a range of $65-72/bbl, with cautious push-buying. Maintain diversified hedging in gold at the $3,300 level.
- cryptoBTC: Heavy upside resistance at $120,000. ETH: ETH relative advantage in a low leverage environment, but upside is limited.
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