This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (2025/08/04, based on closing price)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDXX | Animal Health Inspection | 682.78 | +27.49 % | Q2 beat sharply, full-year forecastup |
| LFMD | telehealth | 12.35 | +24.25 % | Online Medical Contracts Surge |
| VSAT | satellite communication | 20.28 | +22.32 % | Reports of Large Orders for National Defense |
| ONDS | Drone Solutions | 2.67 | +21.36 % | Supply expanded to Israel Police |
| joby | eVTOL | 20.39 | +18.82 % | Continued growth due to Saudi deal reports |
| W | Furniture EC | 73.48 | +12.66 % | Morgan rating upgraded on MW expectations |
| RGTI | quantum computer | 15.76 | +11.61 % | Successful test for DARPA |
| DNA | synthetic biology | 13.60 | +11.57 % | AI Platform Enhancement Announcement |
| LTRN | AI Drug Discovery | 5.32 | +11.53 % | Continues to rise day after day |
| SYM | Warehouse Robotics | 56.57 | +11.25 % | Walmart additional introduction coverage |
market insight
general mood
Weak U.S. July jobs report and new tariffs announced World stocks fell the most since the beginning of the year compared to the previous dayHowever, on August 4, the market rebounded due to the pushback in response. The three U.S. equity indices all rose, especially the Nasdaq +1.951 TP3T, the S&P 500 +1.471 TP3T, and the Dow +1.341 TP3T. Expectations for the Fed's September rate cut resurfaced, and market sentiment "turned positive.Reversal of risk sentiment and incorporation of interest rate cutsThe project leaned heavily toward a "yes" vote.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Background and Capital Flows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | Approx. 44,173.6 | +585.06 pt (+1.34%) | Rebound due to broad-based unwind buying, including financials and utilities |
| S&P 500 | Approx. 6,329.9 | +91.93 pt (+1.47%) | New money in tech and telecom, renewed undervaluation |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | Approx. 21,053.6 | +403.45 pt (+1.95%) | Semiconductor and AI-related led the way, with Russell 2000 also higher across the board at +21 TP3T |
| Nikkei 225 | Rebound after decline, flat during the day | - | Asian stocks mixed between Japan and China; Nikkei showing signs of picking up after previous week's decline |
| STOXX600 | bring back up | - | European stocks also partially bought back due to strong U.S. performance, but continue to be wary of tariffs and earnings |
bond
- U.S. Treasuries: Short- and long-term yields are both declining. In particular, the 2-year yield has fallen to a 3-month low, and the 10-year yield is also on a significant downtrend.
- Recession in demand for safe assets and a return to risky assets are occurring at the same time
exchange (e.g. foreign)
The dollar softens in general. The euro and emerging currencies were bought. The dollar/yen also appears to have turned to a downtrend. The upward trend is confirmed especially in trade currencies and emerging Asian currency indices.
commodity
| description | price fluctuation | main factor |
|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | -approx. 1.51 TP3T descent | Uncertainty over supply and demand due to OPEC+'s announcement of production increase plan |
| Brent. | -approx. 1.54% | same as above |
| money (written before an amount) | slight rise | Rebounding trend supported by dollar weakness and expectations of interest rate cuts |
crypto
- bitcoin$114,000 level, holding steady, supported by expectations of a September rate cut and inflows of funds.
- ethereumMajor alts up + to 8%, with ETH, XRP, ADA, etc. confirming money cycle
Macro Event Focus (8/5-8/8)
- 8/5 (Mon) U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index50: 50 level recovery would be a cue for risk asset reversal
- 8/6 (Tue) China July Trade Statistics: Tariff Impacts and Business Cycle Observations
- Wed 8/7 U.S. June JOLTS jobsReassessing the Strength of Labor Supply and Demand
- 8/8 (Thu) Australia RBA Interest Rate Announcement: Exploring the Direction of Global Interest Rates
Insight Summary
- U.S. stocks： Rebound from the reset market ahead of the FOMC meeting. Funds concentrated especially in tech and telecom services.
- bond: Both long- and short-term interest rates declined as expectations of interest rate cuts were factored in.
- exchange (e.g. foreign): The dollar is weakening. A return to the yen and euro and a strengthening of emerging currencies is evident.
- commodity: Crude oil falls on supply concerns. Gold to rebound from pushback.
- cryptoBTC: Continued inflows of ETF funds, especially ETH and XRP; BTC remained stable; ETFs are still in the center of the supply-demand equation; BTC is still in the center of the supply-demand equation.
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