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U.S. stocks continue to rise, gold futures near highs on tariff reports, U.S. interest rates at 4.27% and a stronger dollar (2025.08.07)

U.S. stocks continue to rise, gold futures near highs on tariff reports, U.S. interest rates at 4.27% and a stronger dollar (2025.08.07)market analysis

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)

Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 08/08/2025)

descriptionthemeclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)rate of returnPersonal note Insight
GCTCross-border EC and logistics platform28.91+30.52 %Q2 financial results released, full-year forecast in focus
not noticing mood implicit to situations, conversations, etc.Voice AI13.55+26.40 %Q2 sales surge, full-year guidance raised
CMPOMetal Card/Security17.53+21.74 %Q2 record high, full-year forecast revised upward
DOCSMedical SNS/Advertising66.58+13.71 %Q1 sales +151 TP3T, EPS upswing
NBcritical mineral4.74+11.79 %Up to $10 million in support announced from DoD
OUSTLidar.25.80+11.69 %Q2 sales $35M above forecast and gross profit improvement
ONDSIndustrial Radio and Drones3.55+9.23 %Strategic investment in Norwegian Rift to strengthen Europe
GILDBiomedicine119.41+8.28 %Q2 Beat PrEP New Drugs Expected Outlookup
KTOSDefense Tech.63.88+8.12 %Q2 sales +171 TP3T, full-year forecast raised
BBAINational Defense AI7.14+8.02 %Speculative buying before 8/11 earnings
CRVWAI Cloud (CoreWeave)129.55+7.00 %Buy ahead of time due to 8/12 earnings announcement

market insight

general mood

U.S. stocks continued to rise, led by tech,S&P 500 up 0.78%, NASDAQ up 0.98%, Dow up 0.47%.Throughout the week, it also rose for the third consecutive week. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note wasThe dollar continued to strengthen, rising slightly to 4.27%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 rose 0.19% to 547.08, supported by materials stocks and good earnings issues.Japan Stocks Take Advantage of Favorable EarningsNikkei 225 was at 41,820.48The price rose to a new high for the year. In the commodity markets, gold futuresNear record high after tariff reportup to 1.5 times, while crude oil was in a flat range. In crypto, Bitcoin fell slightly.

equity

indexclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daybackground
Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones)44,175.61+206.97 (+0.47%)Broad-based buybacks on the back of strong earnings
S&P 5006,389.45+49.45 (+0.78%)Driven by megatech and healthcare
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations21,450.02+207.32 (+0.98%)Rise in Generated AI-Related Stocks
Nikkei 22541,820.48+761.33 (+1.85%)Favorable financial results and policy expectations lead to strong buying
STOXX600547.08+1.03 (+0.19%)Supported by materials and precious metals-related stocks

bond

home (i.e. hometown, home country)10-year yieldChange from previous day (bp)Comment
United States of America4.27 %+4Weak bidding and pre-event selling dominance
Germany2.70 %+2Higher as European stocks rebound
Japan1.49 %0Stocks up but interest rates in sideways range

exchange (e.g. foreign)

  • usd/jpy 147.62 (+0.34%): U.S. interest rates rise, leading to dollar buying.
  • EUR/USD 1.1639 (-0.23%): Euro softness.
  • usd/cny 7.1840 (+0.04%): Authorities bias neutral, dollar slowly strengthening.

commodity

list of articlesclosing price (stock exchange, etc.)compared to previous daydriver (of a vehicle)
WTI crude oil$63.88/bbl0.00 %Mixed supply-demand concerns and policy observations
Brent Crude Oil$66.59/bbl+0.24 %same as above
natural gas$3.06/MMBtu-2.5 %Ample supply, softening due to weather factors
Gold (futures)$3,491.30/oz+1.10 %Tariff reports spike, widening spread with cash
Gold (physical)$3,394.24/oz-0.08 %Real demand is slow to follow.
silver$38.39/oz+0.61 %Gold-linked risk hedging demand
copper$4.4850/lb+1.66 %Rebounding after a price correction following tariff speculation.

crypto

  • Bitcoin $116,676 (-0.68%): Even though stocks are high, the upside is heavy before the event.
  • Ethereum $3,911 (+approx. 6%)Relative preference continues.

Macro Event Focus (8/9 - 8/14)

  • Aug. 9 China July CPI & PPIConfirmation of the degree of disinflationary progression.
  • Aug-12 U.S. July CPI: The biggest event is whether the core inflation slowdown will continue.
  • Aug. 14 U.S. July PPI: Focus on core goods price trends.
  • 8/15 Michigan Consumer Confidence (Preliminary): The possibility of expected inflation spilling over into interest rates.

Insight Summary

  • U.S. large-cap growth stocks and Japanese stocks are overweightedRelative Advantage. Visibility of profit growth is a relative advantage.
  • Gold futures rallied sharply on tariff reports, widening the gap with the physical, preferring physical and gold mining stocks for hedging.
  • Crude oil is neutral in the short term as it approaches the lower end of its range in the mid $60s.
  • The dollar will continue to strengthen, but depending on CPI, we expect the dollar/JPY to be in front of ¥150.

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