中国CATL鉱山停止でリチウム急騰、CPI前夜の米株反落（2025.08.11）

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)

Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 08/11/2025)

description	theme	closing price (stock exchange, etc.)	rate of return	Personal note Insight
not noticing mood implicit to situations, conversations, etc.	Voice AI	15.90	+17.34 %	Q2 sales +217%, full-year forecast revised upward
RDNT	Medical Images	62.00	+16.19 %	Q2 record sales and upward guidance revision
MOB	drone communication	4.05	+13.76 %	Continued strong rally
JMIA	African EC	6.44	+11.42 %	Q2 sales +25%, full year guidanceup
TMDX	organ transport	127.26	+11.14 %	Q2 sales +38%, performance acceleration
SQM	lithium (Li)	45.90	+8.72 %	Tight supply observed due to reports of CATL mine shutdown
OUST	LiDAR	27.88	+8.06 %	Q2 sales $35M, gross profit improvement

market insight

general mood

U.S. stocks saw slight declines in the three major indices due to caution ahead of the CPI release. The Nasdaq temporarily tested the highs, but was unable to move higher, while semiconductor stocks and lithium-related stocks supported the market. Lithium wasReports of Production Halt at Major Mine by China's CATLFutures and mining stocks surged as fears of tight global supplies grew sharply in response to the Buying also spread to resource stocks as a whole. Asian stocks were firm, led by tech stocks, despite Japan being closed. European stocks were thinly traded and lacked direction. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was little changed at around 4.28%, with yields falling ahead of buying in short-term bonds. Gold fell on tariff-related comments, while crude oil was slightly lower due to supply-demand balance. Bitcoin approached highs above the $120,000 level, driven by inflows of institutional funds.

equity

index	closing price (stock exchange, etc.)	compared to previous day	background
Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones)	43,975.09	-200.52 (-0.45%)	Falling back on handouts before CPI
S&P 500	6,373.45	-16.00 (-0.25%)	Defensive Relative Strength
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations	21,385.40	-64.62 (-0.30%)	MegaTech one corner to profit.
Nikkei 225	stage absence	-	Closed on Mountain Day (41,820.48 on previous business day)
STOXX600	546.76	-0.06%	Index slightly lower due to weak defense stocks

bond

home (i.e. hometown, home country)	10-year yield	Change from previous day (bp)	Comment
United States of America	4.27 %	-1	Long-term yields fall slightly as we await CPI
Germany	2.70 %	+1	Small movement under soft European stocks
Japan	1.48 %	-1	Lack of direction due to holiday entanglements

exchange (e.g. foreign)

usd/jpy 148.17 (+0.1%)USD/JPY: The dollar remained high, reflecting the level of U.S. interest rates.
EUR/USD 1.1614 (-0.0%): Little sense of direction.
usd/cny 7.19 (+0.0%): Authority bias neutral, narrow range.

commodity

list of articles	closing price (stock exchange, etc.)	compared to previous day	driver (of a vehicle)
WTI crude oil	$63.96/bbl	+0.13%	Small sunset for wait-and-see on US-Russia meeting observation
Brent Crude Oil	$66.63/bbl	+0.06%	same as above
natural gas	$2.954/MMBtu	-1.20%	Softening due to high supply and temperature outlook
Gold (physical)	$3,357/oz	-1 to -2%	No tariffs on gold" statement stripped premium
silver	$37.9-38.1/oz	-0.5 to -1%	Gold-linked interest
Copper (COMEX)	$4.4235/lb	-0.72%	Adjustment in reduction of tariff-related premiums

crypto

Bitcoin $120,000 approx (+1-3%): Firm even under the overall adjustment of risk assets.
Ethereum $3.9k unitsRelative Strength: Relative Strength.

Macro Event Focus (8/12-8/15)

Aug-12 U.S. July CPI: Slight acceleration observed in the aggregate. The key is whether the core continues to slow down.
Aug. 14 U.S. July PPI: Confirmation of the bottom in core goods prices.
8/15 U.S.-Russia Summit (Alaska): Energy & Precious Metals Vola Factors.

Insight Summary

Short-term isGrowth Overheat Adjustment + Defensive/HealthcareThis is a return of funds to the
Gold Stripped of Futures PremiumThe company prefers cash-linked assets with a return stance on gold mining stocks.
Dollar/Yen attack in the 148s.and a test of the upside before 150 depending on CPI. Bonds are waiting for two directions on the 4.27% axis.