This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (based on closing price on 08/12/2025)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTBR (Light Bridge) | Advanced Nuclear Fuels and SMRs | 17.11 | +26.74 % | Q2 Presentation and Oklo Cooperative Assessment |
| ONDS | Industrial Radio and Drones | 4.29 | +25.07 % | Q2 sales $6.3M (+555%), backlog $20.7M |
| USAR (US Air Rare Earths) | rare earth | 19.04 | +23.32 % | Q2 announced, cash $122M, price target raised |
| SE (Sea Limited) | Southeast Asia EC, Gaming & Finance | 174.12 | +19.07 % | Q2 sales $5.3B (+38%), net income $414M |
| ZENA (Zenas Biopharma) | Immunological Disease Treatment | 5.58 | +16.25 % | Q2 announcement, obexelimab P3 results expected within year |
| LIF (Life 360) | Location & Family Safety | 83.55 | +13.30 % | Q2 sales $115M and MAUs 88M, up from |
| ASPI (ASP Isotopes) | medical isotope | 11.21 | +13.00 % | JSE dual listing plan and Renergen acquisition progress |
| JMIA (Jumia) | African EC | 7.25 | +12.58 % | Continued rise from Q2 results |
| BE (Bloom Energy) | Distributed generation and data center power | 41.25 | +9.56 % | Observation of power supply expansion for DC (after Oracle project) |
| ONON (ON Holding) | sportswear | 49.81 | +8.95 % | Raised full-year guidance with +32% in sales |
overallEarnings-driven small- and mid-cap growth-drivenStronger "stocks with numbers and guidance confirming upside" such as Sea, Life360, Jumia, and Ondas,Emerging EC / Data & Telecom Infrastructure / Alternative Power (Nuclear & Fuel Cell) / Strategic Mineralsand other themes are attracting buyers.
The index is slightly diversified from the large tech-dependent indexes, and cross-thematic speculation appears to be spreading.
Thematic Clues
- Earnings beat + Full yearup
Sea, Life360, Jumia, and Ondas, with re-acceleration of sales growth and improvement in user metrics,Maintain volume after gap upThe focus is on whether the - Energy & Nuclear Side
Lightbridge, Bloom Energy. high profile in SMR and data center power,High sensitivity to policy and regulatory newsSegment. - Resources & Strategic Minerals
USA Rare Earth, backed by supply concerns for lithium and rare earths.Strong price linkage and high volatilityTherefore, watch for a reversal in commodity markets. - etc.
Medical isotopes (ASPI) areEquipment and Permits Progress Headlinesis likely to be a stock price driver in the market.
Checkpoints to focus on now
- Guidance Quality: More than a simple sales beat,Improvement of gross profit and operating leverageThis is where Sea and Life360 come in.
- continuityOndas: Ondas isPace of conversion of order backlog into cashJumia is a leading provider ofTurnaround TrackTracking the degree of execution of the
- policy risk: Lightbridge and Bloom Energy areRegulatory and Subsidy HeadlinesThe range of oscillation is easy to see in the following table.
- supply and demand: After Gap UpMaintained 5-day line without filling the windowCan it be done? A slowdown in volume or a series of upward beards can easily be a sign of profit-taking.
Personal impressions
- Today, we are going to discuss the "Real demand theme supported by financial resultsThe straightforward funds flow to the "Mere Old Man" and not only in the short term.Trending over a span of several weeksI have the impression that many of the faces can be expected to
- On the other hand, some of the resource and nuclearheadline dependentThe rise is easy to slap back and forth at theStaged Entry and Trailing StopsI would like to treat this as a premise.
- Although the noise of inbound external factors (policy, tariffs, interest rates) continues,Have a thick portfolio of stocks that can speak for themselves in terms of fundamentals.We assume that the market is a good place for the strategy to work.
market insight
general mood
With the July CPI landing "within expectations" and maintaining expectations of a rate cut, U.S. stocks were broadly bid up, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both hitting all-time highs at the same time. Driven by persistent expectations of a rate cut and the day's leadingLithium-related supply shocksThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Lithium futures surged again yesterday, triggered by reports of a mine shutdown at China's CATL, with buying spilling over into mining stocks and the materials sector due to concerns over the EV supply chain.
This move is in a quiet market awaiting macro indicators,How supply-side materials can be a powerful themesymbolic. As a result, stocks were steady, bond yields rose slightly, and the exchange rate appreciated against the dollar. Market interest was concentrated on two major themes, "semiconductors" and "lithium," while energy and gold were soft, making for a very selective day.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,458.61 | +483.52 (+1.10%) | Pre-CPI interest rate cut expectations and mega-tech firmness. |
| S&P 500 | 6,445.76 | +72.31 (+1.13%) | Bought broadly, reaching new highs. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,681.90 | +296.50 (+1.39%) | AI and large tech led the rise. |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,672.22 | +233.20 (+0.59%) | After the holidays, buyers bought into semiconductors and automobiles. |
| STOXX600 | 547.89 | +1.13 (+0.21%) | Thin trade, materials are lithium-associated high. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.29 % | +2 | Slightly higher due to pre-CPI adjustments. |
| Germany | 2.74 % | +4 | Government bonds are selling off on the back of firm European equities. |
| Japan | 1.51 % | +2 | Yields are recovering due to remaining normalization expectations. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 148.10 (+0.30%): Dollar gains due to the dollar's buying power ahead of the CPI.
- EUR/USD 1.1618 (-0.26%): The dollar was firm and the euro fell slightly.
- usd/cny 7.1876 (+0.09%): Small movement due to stabilization of the authorities.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.13/bbl | -1.30% | Supply-demand equilibrium view and adjustment selling before inventory. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.10/bbl | -0.80% | The bearish outlook of the EIA Tankan weighed on the market. |
| natural gas | $2.79/MMBtu | -5.55% | Continued to fall due to cool weather and thick inventory. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,402.92/oz | -0.05% | The upside is heavy due to the strong dollar observation. |
| silver | $37.98/oz | +0.52% | Firm with industrial demand expectations. |
| copper | $4.50680/lb | +1.50% | Rebound due to risk-on and China expectations. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $120,118.40 (+1.20%)The price is approaching a high level due to the inflow of institutional funds.
- Ethereum $4,600.00 (+8.88%): Risk appetite recovery and futures led a sharp increase.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- Aug. 13 (U.S.) CPI (July): Core +0.31 TP3T observation, a test of expectations for a rate cut.
- 8/14 (U.S.) PPI, New Unemployment Insurance: supply, demand, and wage inflation cues.
- 8/15 (M) July Industrial Production, Retail Sales: Confirmation of economic momentum.
- Aug. 15 (U.S.) Michigan Univ. Consumer Confidence (Preliminary): Focus on expected inflation.
Factors behind lithium-related strength (Insights)
Lithium carbonate futures in Guangzhou were limited +8% higher and mining stocks such as ALB, SQM, and LAC also surged on reports that CATL suspended operations (delayed permit renewal) at a major lithium mine (Jianxiawo/Jianxiawo) in Jiangxi Province. The market was simultaneously incorporating expectations of a shift from "oversupply to tightening" and short-covering. Temporary constraints on the supply side have increased price elasticity under inventory buildup, distorting price elasticity upward in the short term.
(Insight Summary)
- Most recentSemiconductor x LithiumThe cycle is a bipolar one. Until the event passes, it is appropriate to be short term in upstream materials (mining and refining), and after the event, it is appropriate to turn profitable.
- Interest rates are near the upper end of the range,USD/JPY bi-directional depending on CPIEvent-driven strategies such as buying gamma (straddle) are effective.
- Crude oil is back on EIA bearish outlook, gold awaits dollar trend. In Ports.Tech & Materials (Upstream) > EnergyThis is a ground where the specific weight of the
English
日本語