This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/13/2025)
| Ticker (Brand name in kana) | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNTS (Momentus) | Space Transportation and Orbital Services | 1.91 | +72.07% | NASA and Contract Report |
| CRNC (Serenity) | Voice Recognition and In-vehicle AI | 13.52 | +24.15% | Reported Q2 sales of $70M and return to profitability, raised full-year forecast |
| OUST (AUST) | LiDAR sensor | 33.11 | +15.37% | Continued rise after strong Q2 results |
| DNA (Ginko Bioworks) | Synthetic Biology and Biomanufacturing | 13.26 | +14.71% | Emerging from decline after Q2 results |
| AREC (American Resources) | Coal and rare earth recovery | 1.80 | +12.50% | Rare earth separation facility operation reported, speculative buying |
| CPRI (Capri Holdings, Inc.) | High-end apparel (Michael Kors, etc.) | 22.03 | +12.28% | Upgrading Reported by JPM |
| IDR (IDR) | Logistics and port operations | 26.06 | +9.68% | Q2 sales $410M (above forecast), continues to rise |
| LMND (Lemonade) | AI Insurance | 59.70 | +9.36% | Continued rise after Q2 results |
overallRise in industrial AI and automation-related industries triggered by earnings announcementsare conspicuous, such as CRNC and OUST.Small and medium-sized growth backed by performanceis moving strongly. In addition, the MNTS, like theThematic preoccupation with spaceand DNA and AREC.Materials & Biotechnologyalso have some movement, and the impression is that many stocks are reacting quickly to news and regulatory developments. The market has partially shifted away from its dependence on large tech and is becoming more theme-cyclical.
Thematic Clues
- Earnings beat + upward guidance revision
CRNC, OUST. clear demand growth and gross margin improvement in the industrial AI and automation sectors.Maintain volume after gap upis the focus for the future. - Theme speculation-type surge
MNTS. short-term funds are concentrated on small space-related products.price range adjustment riskis high and freshness control is necessary. - Materials & Biocides
DNA, AREC. business progress and facility operation news are material.Impact of Regulations and Market ConditionsHeadline tracking is important because it is highly susceptible to - Other cyclical items
CPRI, IDR, and LMND. rose due to supply/demand consolidation after financial results and relative undervaluation due to external factors.
Checkpoints to focus on now
- Guidance QualityIn addition to the sales beat,Improve gross margin and operating leverageCRNC and OUST will be watched particularly closely.
- continuity: a spike like that of MNTS isConsecutive positive lines and volume maintenanceis important. There is a possibility of a sharp selloff due to loss of freshness.
- Policy and Regulatory RiskAREC, DNA isNews on licensing and regulatory changesNote that the swing is large in
- supply and demand: Gap-up stocks are...Maintains a high price rangeCan it be done? A slowdown in volume and a series of long upper beards are warning signals.
Personal impressions
- Today.Industrial AI and automation related with financial backingcontinues to be strong and the medium-term development of the theme is expected.
- On the other hand,Speculative small space and materials stocksare rough in price movements and highly dependent on headlines.Short-term trade assumptionIt may be desirable to respond with
- Overall, while focusing on stocks with both earnings and thematic characteristics, news-drivenChanges in freshness and volumeWe hope to be in a position to constantly monitor the
market insight
general mood
The U.S. market was clearly expecting a rate cut in September after July's inflation data came in as expected,Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit all-time highsThe Dow will be the first to announce a new policy. The Dow. +1.04 %and the Russell 2000 is a small shareholder-led +2 % The rise symbolized the breadth of the market.
In the currency markets, the dollar sank to a two-week low,Gold prices riseBond yields are down. Bond yields have fallen and volatility indicators have moved to lower levels. These developments indicate that investors are almost certain to see an easing in interest rates.
Also, the biggest story of the day was the NYSE listing of the crypto asset exchange Bullish, which saw its stock price more than double and soar,Hot on the Crypto Sector's heelsIn addition, the market's interest shifted to "theme/cyclical" selling. In addition, market interest shifted to "theme/cyclical" shopping, with funds flowing into medical/healthcare stocks and IPOs.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,458.61 | +483.52 (+1.10%) | Pre-CPI interest rate cut expectations and mega-tech firmness. |
| S&P 500 | 6,445.76 | +72.31 (+1.13%) | Bought broadly, reaching new highs. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,681.90 | +296.50 (+1.39%) | AI and large tech led the rise. |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,672.22 | +233.20 (+0.59%) | After the holidays, buyers bought into semiconductors and automobiles. |
| STOXX600 | 547.89 | +1.13 (+0.21%) | Thin trade, materials are lithium-associated high. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.24 % | -5 | Yields decline due to increased speculation of a rate cut after the CPI. |
| Germany | 2.69 % | -5 | Strong demand for safe assets also prevailed in the European stock market, leading to strong buying. |
| Japan | 1.50 % | -1 | No change in supply and demand due to stable interest rates and a weakening yen trend. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.85 (-0.52%): Lower U.S. interest rates and risk-on led to a dollar sell-off and yen buy-back.
- EUR/USD 1.1752 (+0.31%): Euro rebounded against the backdrop of a weaker dollar.
- usd/cny 7.1654 (-0.31%): Slightly higher due to yuan buybacks and the stabilizing stance of the authorities.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.79/bbl | -0.61% | Supply-demand equilibrium and pre-inventory adjustment selling. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $65.81/bbl | +0.27% | Middle East supply concerns and stable demand support. |
| natural gas | $2.74/MMBtu | -1.79% | Downward revision of temperature forecast and thick inventory caused the decline. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,355.68/oz | +0.23% | Dollar rises on weakness, continued expectations of a rate cut after CPI. |
| silver | $38.17/oz | +0.80% | Buying is strong due to anticipation of industrial demand. |
| copper | $4.5160/lb | +0.21% | Steady on Chinese economic expectations and risk-on. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $118,950.25 (-0.97%): Gains prevailed from the previous day's highs, and the decline was halted by lower U.S. interest rates.
Ethereum $4,582.40 (+0.41%): Steady growth due to continued inflows of DeFi related funds.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 8/14 (U.S.) PPI, New Unemployment Insurance Applications: Confirmation of corporate price pass-through trends and strength of employment supply and demand, and an assessment of inflation sustainability.
- 8/15 (M) July Industrial Production, Retail SalesThe impact on the commodity markets, an indicator of the degree of recovery in domestic demand and manufacturing activity, will also be closely monitored.
- Aug. 15 (U.S.) University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Preliminary): confirms households' inflation expectations and willingness to spend.
- 8/16-19 (U.S., Europe) Corporate earnings concentration: Focus is on updating guidance for small- and mid-cap growth and materials stocks.
Insight Summary
- CPI landing within expectations and U.S. Treasury Secretary0.51 TP3T interest rate cut approval statementis a combination of lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar.Extensive risk-onaccelerates.
- The index remained at its highest level, with the main players shifting to small-cap and theme stocks (crypto-related due to Bullish listing, healthcare, and IPO sector), expanding the breadth of the market.
- As long-term interest rates decline and volatility remains low,Position profit booking in large-cap stocks → fund transfer to thematic cyclesbecomes clearer.
- In the short term, targeting momentum in theme stocks is effective, but be prepared for a rapid backflow of funds after the event passes,Clarification of step-up gains and stop-loss criteriais required.
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