This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/22/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONDS (Ondus Holdings, Inc.) | 4.49 | +18.16% | Industrial Drone / Anti-UAS | $2.7M order announced the day before for Airobotics' Iron Drone vs. UAS |
| MNTS (Momentus) | 1.45 | +13.28% | Space Transportation and Orbital Services | Adjustment lull after NASA contract report |
| UUUU (Energy Fuels) | 10.58 | +12.55% | Uranium and heavy rare earth | White Mesa Announces First Successful Dy Oxide 99.9% Production |
| CRML (Critical Metals) | 6.55 | +11.58% | Rare earth development | Strong lithium-related market continues |
| ENPH (Enphase Energy) | 38.18 | +10.41% | Solar Power Electronics | Interest rate sensitive solar buying (lower cost of funds) at the suggestion of a rate cut. |
| UEC (Uranium Energy) | 10.53 | +9.46% | uranium mining | Kazatomprom announces production cut in 2026, uranium stocks in the market. |
| OSCR (Oscar Health) | 16.80 | +8.95% | Digital Insurance/ACA | Continued Scrutiny After ICHRA Employer Plan Announcement with Hy-Vee? |
personal impression
Macro-driven risk-onChairman Powell's hint of a rate cut in Jackson Hole boosted stocks broadly, and interest rate-sensitive solar-related (ENPH) stocks rose sharply based on thematic demand. The impression is that the improvement in the overall market tone helped boost individual material stocks.
Strong uranium and rare earth resource themesThe Kazatomprom.Production reduction in 2026and buying spilled over into uranium stocks, including UEC. In addition, Energy Fuels Inc.Dy oxide 99.9% productionUUUUU increased sharply on its own materials. The two positives of tightening resource supply and strengthening the supply chain in the U.S. were combined.
Defense Tech's Individual MaterialsONDS are also prominent.$2.7M orders for anti-UAS systemsThe market continued to grow in Drone and Space (MNTS) is volatile with a strong turnover of short-term funds and some issues lacking clear materials.
In health care, OSCR isICHRA Plan with Hy-VeeMomentum continues after the announcement. Overall,Interest rate cut speculation x Supply-side newsThe trend of theme shopping in response to the
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/22
general mood
U.S. stocks were higher across the board on Powell's speech "hinting at a September rate cut" and the Dow was at its highest closing level since the beginning of the year. U.S. long-term interest rates fell, the dollar softened broadly, and gold ended the weekend higher and oil slightly higher (U.S. 10-year down to 4.261 TP3T, DXY softer).
Tech led, but value/small-cap and financials were also repriced, and a broad range of interest rate sensitive sectors were higher. European stocks extended gains toward the close, while Japanese equities were in a slight correction, waiting for the U.S. to lead the way.
Bonds showed signs of yield convergence with the U.S. and Germany declining and the JGB rising slightly, while the yen appreciated, the euro strengthened, and the yuan was slightly mixed. Commodities were slightly higher for crude oil, firmer for precious metals, and softer for gas.
Crypto assets saw improved sentiment with a significant rise in Ether (to all-time highs).
The key was a shift in policy focus from "inflation" to downside risks in the labor market, pushing up the market's risk tolerance.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,631.74 | +846.24 (+1.89%) | Powell's speech strengthened expectations of a September rate cut, buying into economic and financials, and the first closing high since the beginning of the year. |
| S&P 500 | 6,466.91 | +96.74 (+1.52%) | Large tech and interest rate benefit sectors rise side by side, with funds flowing into a wide range of stocks. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,496.53 | +396.22 (+1.88%) | In addition to AI-related returns, growth in general has been repurchased. |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,633.29 | +23.12 (+0.05%) | Small moves awaiting U.S. events, with long-term interest rates rising slightly and yen appreciation restraining upside. |
| STOXX600 | 561.30 | +2.23 (+0.40%) | Europe also expanded its gains after Powell's comments, reaching a 5-month high, and weekly gains continued. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.26 % | -7 | Powell's dove-leaning tone lowers the entire curve. |
| Germany | 2.72 % | -3 | Demand for safe assets and lower U.S. interest rates spilled over into the European stock market. |
| Japan | 1.62 % | +1 | JGB is slowly rising on sustained policy normalization speculation. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.92 (-0.99%)The yen is buying as the carry is unwinding due to lower U.S. interest rates and risk-on.
- EUR/USD 1.1717 (+0.96%): The dollar weakened on the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut, while higher European equities also supported the euro.
- usd/cny 7.1806 (+0.07%)Onshore: small movement, lack of direction due to policy stance discernment.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.66/bbl | +0.22% | Slight rebound on receding supply/demand concerns after Powell's speech; weekly gain for the first time in 3 weeks. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.73/bbl | +0.09% | Similarly, a slight increase. |
| natural gas | $2.69/MMBtu | -4.67% | Weak week due to inventory and weather factors. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,371.09/oz | +0.95% | Demand for safe assets strengthened due to lower U.S. interest rates and a weaker dollar. |
| silver | $38.10/oz | +0.18% | Steady with gold. |
| copper | $4.44750/lb | +0.36% | Risk-on and bear sentiment receding. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $116,617.42 (+3.74%): Return to risk assets due to interest rate cut speculation, strengthening correlation with stocks and gold simultaneously higher in the short term.
- Ethereum $4,828.70 (+14.34%): The market rose sharply and closed at an all-time high due to the prospect of lower interest rates and on-chain demand observation.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/08/26 (Tue) U.S. Durable Goods Orders (July) - The slowdown/pick-up in the capital goods core will be a key factor to watch.
- Tuesday, 2025/08/26 U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (August) - The degree of softening in the labor market assessment is in focus.
- Wed, 2025/08/27 NVIDIA Earnings (FY26/Q2) - AI investment sustainability and China-oriented trends are short-term drivers for stocks and indices.
- 2025/08/28 (Thu) U.S. - Revised GDP (Q2) / 2025/08/29 U.S. - Personal Income and Personal Expenditures (July, including PCE) - the "final piece" of the puzzle for the September rate cut.
Insight Summary
- The combination of lower interest rates x weaker dollar x risk-on boosted stocks, gold and some commodities at the same time on this day, and it is appropriate to continue to be overweight equities and slightly longer bond duration in the short term.
- The yen's appreciation may slow the return of large cap foreign demand in Japanese equities, and until the event passes, a balancing allocation between domestic defensive demand and value will be effective.
- Until the core events (durable goods, consumer confidence, and PCE), the basic tactic is to sell long-term interest rates back/push stocks, but beware of expanding volatility in risk assets if labor indicators deteriorate more.
- Crypto is in a phase where tail risk (regulation and liquidity) has increased due to the Ether-led rise, and specific weights should be adjusted flexibly based on profit taking and diversification.
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