This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/25/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPSH (CPS Technologies) | 3.56 | +13.74% | Advanced Materials & Defense Composites | Q2 sales $8.1M, profitable, etc. Continued to be sought after earnings turnaround. |
| MOB (Mobilicom) | 5.25 | +10.99% | Drone Communications and Cyber Defense | With the continued evaluation of the announcement of the adoption of GCS by a major Israeli defense company. |
| MBOT (Microbot Medical) | 4.16 | +8.05% | medical robot | U.S. patent grants and disclosures of funding secured are material. |
| ONDS (Ondus Holdings, Inc.) | 4.85 | +8.02% | Industrial Drone / Anti-UAS | Favorable announcement of MOU with Safe Pro for collaboration in AI threat detection |
| ASPI (ASP Isotopes) | 9.95 | +6.47% | Isotope and nuclear-related materials | South African Investor Event Announcement for JSE Duplicate Listing Leads to Speculation |
| JMIA (Jumia) | 8.24 | +4.70% | African EC | Continued upward trend after Q2 revenue increase and upward guidance revision |
personal impression
With a sense of caution about high prices plus a sense of buying fatigue, there was a noticeable rise in small names and low-priced stocks,Individual material-driven small-cap marketThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
In Drone vs. UAS, the ONDSMOU with Safe ProMOB'sGCS adoptionThe headlines with the "certainty" of orders and collaborations saw a straightforward inflow of funds. The strength of the "defense x AI" theme stands out across sectors.
In health care, the MBOT isU.S. patent granted + funds securedContinued to increase due to flow to evaluate product advancement and improved cash flow rather than dilution concerns. In materials, CPSH isIncrease in revenue and return to profitability in Q2Review buying continued against the backdrop of
ASPI in the resources and nuclear sector.Last minute event announcement for JSE duplicate listingSpeculative buying in the Exposure to new markets and expectations of improved liquidity support stock prices.
JMIA, on the other handPost-Financial Momentumfollowed by the form. In general,Concentration of funds on subjects with high "news accuracy x visibility of future monetization".The composition of the company is strong.
The impression is that both thematic (defense, nuclear, medical robotics) and financial results-driven speculation have been achieved.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/25
general mood
The U.S. is slightly lower. While interest rate decline is persistently observed,NVIDIA Financial ResultsPreviousAI Mega Cap Concentration RiskThe three major indices all closed slightly lower.
In contrast, Japanese equities remained resilient despite a lull in yen weakness, and were dominated by buyers.
Crude oil isResurgence of Russian Supply Concernsand additional sanctions speculation, gold continued to rise.September FOMC rate cut factored inand the dollar's recovery was offset by small movements, and the exchange rate was directionless while the dollar's strength paused.
Crypto assets are weekendFlash CrashThe aftermath of the "earthquake" continues and volatility remains high, casting a shadow over sentiment for risk assets in general.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,282.47 | -349.27 (-0.77%) | Defensive preference due to hand-outs ahead of NVDA earnings and a lull in interest rate declines. |
| S&P 500 | 6,439.32 | -27.59 (-0.43%) | Mixed results among sectors as growth stocks gain and energy rises |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,449.29 | -47.24 (-0.22%) | The AI mainstay is on the upswing with pre-event caution. |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,807.82 | +174.53 (+0.41%) | It is a chain of manufacturing-led pushback and Asian stock market gains |
| STOXX600 | 558.82 | -2.48 (-0.44%) | Resources and health care softness is restraining the upside. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.28 % | +2 | Interest rate cut speculation is unchanged, but the week's supply and demand has led to a small rebound in the market |
| Germany | 2.76 % | +4 | Expectations of a pickup in European economic indicators are exerting upward pressure |
| Japan | 1.62 % | 0 | The Bank of Japan's stance is unchanged, and the range is narrow. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.97 (+0.10%): The dollar is slightly higher due to the firmness of U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1699 (-0.12%)The euro is hovering around the 1.17 level, with a tug-of-war between the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut and economic uncertainty.
- usd/cny 7.1505 (-0.20%)The Chinese authorities' support for the yuan and rising oil prices are pushing it downwards.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $64.80/bbl | +1.79% | It is rising due to Russian supply concerns and sanctions speculation. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $68.80/bbl | +1.58% | Ditto, the dollar lull in financial factors is also supportive. |
| natural gas | $2.6960/MMBtu | -0.07% | The outlook for easing supply and demand is slightly lower |
| Gold (physical) | $3,367.86/oz | -0.18% | Expectations of a rate cut and a small rebound in the dollar are offsetting the small move. |
| silver | $38.95/oz | +0.10% | Gold-linked and underpinned by industrial supply and demand are slightly higher |
| copper | $4.46650/lb | +0.43% | It is a rebound in the reduction of distortions related to U.S. tariffs and the inventory match. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $110,118.40 (-5.83%): Returns slowed after the weekend plunge, position adjustments continue.
- Ethereum $4,374.73 (-9.45%): Forced loss-cut spillover in cash and futures, expansion of volatility.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/08/26 (Tue) U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: focus on the degree to which the index reflects slack in labor supply and demand.
- Wed, 2025/08/27 NVIDIA Earnings: focus on sustainability of AI capex and guidance for China.
- 2025/08/28 (Thu) US GDP revision (2Q) and preliminary corporate profits: note the quality of demand and inventory contribution review.
- Fri, 2025/08/29 US PCE Deflator (July):coreThe key to the extent of the September interest rate cut is the degree of stickiness of the
Insight Summary
- A rebound in crude oil and copper's downward slide suggest a recovery in beta in the resources sector,European Energy & MaterialsThe specific weight will be slightly increased for a short-term rebound of the
- NVDA Settlement of AccountsAI-related diversification is essential, semiconductor equipment, power infrastructure, optics, etc., depending on guidance fromPeripheral Value ChainConscious of the reverse rotation to
- The U.S. 10-year is higher at the upper end of the 4.2-4.31 TP3T range,Duration slightly longerIt is appropriate to maintain an overweight on bonds in the
- The exchange rate was affected by a slowdown in the trend of the dollar-yen,Lightweight reconstruction of EUR long/JPY shortPriority is given to hedging across events with
- Continued volatility in crypto is a factor restraining the upside in high-beta stocks,Temporary reduction of risk budgetand re-expansion after the event is reasonable.
English
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