This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/26/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SATS (Echostar) | 50.87 | +70.25% | Satellite Communications and Wireless | Announced agreement to sell $23 billion spectrum to AT&T |
| SMTC (Semtech) | 58.72 | +15.14% | Semiconductor (IoT, Data Center) | Q2 sales $257.6M and EPS $0.41 exceeded estimates, guidance firm |
| UUUU (Energy Fuels) | 12.31 | +12.63% | Uranium Rare Earths | Announces MOU to supply rare earths to Vulcan Elements |
| LEU (Centrus Energy) | 208.67 | +12.62% | Uranium Enrichment & Fuel Supply | KHNP and POSCO, Korea, and U.S. Enrichment Expansion Consideration for Investment |
| VSAT (Viasat) | 30.80 | +9.18% | Satellite Communication Services | A$252M Contract Evaluation for SouthPAN, the Southern Hemisphere Positioning Network |
| CRML (Critical Metals) | 6.87 | +9.05% | Rare earth development | Announces 10-year offtake agreement for Ucore |
| JMIA (Jumia) | 8.94 | +8.50% | African EC | Momentum continues after Q2 sales beat and full-year forecast raised |
personal impression
Led bysatellite communicationSATS.Sale of $23 Billion Spectrum to AT&TThe "surprise" was symbolic, and related sectors (e.g., VSAT) were also bought in association with it. Large asset sales and network alliances, "capital and business restructuring materials," drove the market.
Resource and Supply Chain EnhancementUUUU is also highly thematic.Rare Earth Supply MOUDisclosure of the CRML, the CRML is10-year off-take for U.S. government support recipientsLEUs have made progress in visualizing supply and demand in theMOU (basic agreement) with South KoreansThe U.S. domestic enrichment expansion is expected to be rekindled in the U.S. in the next few months. Geopolitics and policy-driven "domesticization" are common drivers of stock prices.
On the fundamental sideClosing BeatsIn e-commerce, JMIA was the top-ranked company.Post-Financial Momentumand funds are attracted to stocks that have news certainty and real demand backing.
In general, the market was dominated by a group of stocks with "high material certainty": large-scale restructuring (SATS) x resource supply chain development (UUUU/CRML/LEU) x earnings beat (SMTC).
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/26
general mood
U.S. stocks rebounded slightly, with all three major indices holding higher, Europe broadly continued to fall, and Tokyo had a down day.
Background,Political risk of President Trump's announcement to dismiss the Fed Board of GovernorsAnd,Position adjustment prior to NVDA closingThe Nikkei is weighed down by export-related stocks due to the yen's strength. The U.S. is returning to defensive stocks, Europe is selling off on economy-sensitive stocks, and the Nikkei is being weighed down by export-related companies due to the yen's strength.
The bonds areU.S. and Germany down, Japan mixedThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.Yield curve is front-driven lower and long end heavy on political intervention concernsContinuation of the bias that
And the exchange rate.with different amounts of dollarsThe market was in a state of flux. Toward the end of the day, U.S. interest rates stabilized and stock prices rose.Dollar/Yen holding upOn the other handEuro appreciation and RMB appreciationDirection is hard to grasp due to event-driven swings.
Commodities areCrude oil down over 21 TP3T, gold up 11 TP3TWhile uncertainty about Fed independence is stimulating demand for safe assets, oil is heavy on the dual factors of supply-demand and risk-off.Gold's strength and oil's weaknessAs long as the cross-asset asymmetry ofThe "low growth x loose policy" bet prevails.The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,418.07 | +135.60 (+0.30%) | Slightly higher due to pre-NVDA earnings estimates and defensive buying back. Political noise is a factor restraining upside. |
| S&P 500 | 6,465.94 | +26.62 (+0.41%) | Interest rates flat, funds return to mega caps, and economic sensitivity is mixed. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,544.27 | +94.98 (+0.44%) | Pre-event speculative buying in semiconductors secured positive results at the close. |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,394.40 | -413.42 (-0.97%) | Export stocks soft due to the yen's forward-looking outlook and U.S. political risks, with weak returns after the morning's weakness. |
| STOXX600 | 554.20 | -4.62 (-0.83%) | Capital goods and materials weigh, a combination of U.S. political risk and slowing business confidence. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.27 % | -1 | Front-driven interest rates lower due to political noise, and the long end of the curve is lower. |
| Germany | 2.72 % | -4 | Weak risk assets and slowing business confidence led to a preference for safe assets. |
| Japan | 1.63 % | +1 | Slightly higher due to the yen's forward warning and supply/demand factors, but lower volatility. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.71 (+0.34%): The dollar and the yen rebounded from their early weakness and returned to the market on the back of stable U.S. interest rates and a stock rebound.
- EUR/USD 1.1651 (+0.27%): dollar sold off on Fed independence concerns, euro steady; awaiting ECB indicators.
- usd/cny 7.1505 (-0.24%): Yuan repurchase due to the People's Bank of China's guidance and a lull in stock market weakness.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.25/bbl | -2.45% | Continued decline due to political risk and demand concerns, testing the lower end of the range. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.22/bbl | -2.30% | Weakness due to uncertainty over the supply/demand outlook and risk-off. |
| natural gas | $2.72/MMBtu | +0.78% | A lull in recent weakness and short-covering in the dollar's weakness. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,391.10/oz | +1.08% | Safe-haven asset preference due to Fed independence concerns, and high prices since the beginning of the year. |
| silver | $38.61/oz | +0.13% | Slightly higher with gold prices tracking higher, but industrial demand outlook still unstable. |
| copper | $4.45050/lb | -0.36% | Risk aversion due to macro uncertainty, heavy upside. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $111,200 (-2.28%): Heavy upside due to U.S. political noise and equity risk aversion, but downside is contained at technical milestones. Calculations are based on CME futures closing prices.
- Ethereum $4,526 (-1.80%): Gains prevailed at higher prices, and relative strength was maintained due to L2 inflows. Keep an eye on the divergence between futures and cash.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/08/28 (Thu) U.S. Q2 - GDP Revision (annualized) - Focus on Downward/Upward Revision of Growth and Core PCE Deflator Revision
- 2025/08/28 (Thu) NVIDIA Earnings (US, After Market) - A Testament to the Sustainability of the AI Investment Cycle
- Friday, 2025/08/29 U.S. July PCE Deflator-.Monthly growth of coreis the key to the rate cut observation
- 2025/08/29 (Fri) Tokyo Metropolitan Area CPI and Euro Area HICP Preliminary Report (August)Disinflation Progression in Japan and EuropeMaterial to measure
Insight Summary
- stock (company)The U.S. is neutral to slightly bullish until the event passes, Europe is becoming more sensitive to economic conditions, and Japan is in a good position to wait for exporters to return to the market.
- bondUS: US adds front long duration, Japan avoids excessive bearishness due to short-covering dominance
- exchange (e.g. foreign): USD/JPY back in front of 148, Euro pushing around HICP, RMB continues to carry with local stability.
- commodity: Crude oil is cautious in reverse at the lower end of the range,Gold push priorityRisk-off measures in
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