This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/27/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDB (Mongo DB) | 295.70 | +37.96% | NoSQL database and AI infrastructure | Continuing the trend of good Q2 results on the previous day |
| SATS (Echostar) | 58.76 | +15.51% | Satellite Communications & Frequency Assets | $23 Billion Spectrum Sale to AT&T Continues |
| NCNO (NCNO) | 32.69 | +13.94% | Cloud Bank SaaS | Q2 beat and full year guidance revised upward |
| SERV (SERV Robotics) | 11.61 | +13.05% | autonomous delivery robot | New "outperforms" start at Wedbush |
| ALB (Albemarle) | 87.68 | +7.54% | Lithium & Specialty Chemicals | UBS Upgrades Lithium Price Forecast |
| VSAT (Viasat) | 32.50 | +5.52% | Satellite Communication Services | Spectrum value revaluation following AT&T x EchoStar transaction |
personal impression
AI-related software leading the way, index tailwind to new highs; MDB beats and raises leading role, spillover to peripheral software; and a new round of AI-related software, with the first of the new round of AI-related software to be released in the next few months.I
Continuing from the previous day, the telecom satellite/frequency theme continued to grow, reassessing asset values following the large sale of SATS, and associating with VSAT. Capital restructuring expectations and analyst valuation upside.
Financial Tech continues momentum due to straightforward buying based on earnings results and NCNO's raised guidance.
Materials benefited from improved lithium outlook, ALB turned around on positive UBS view. Macro is supported by optimism ahead of NVDA earnings and lower interest rates.
The market and preference patterns are gradually showing signs of change.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/27
general mood
The three major U.S. stock indexes are up slightly to maintain their all-time highs, while Europe is slightly higher, and Japan is slightly higher on a recovery track. Background. Continued expectations prior to NVDA financial results and Political noise over Fed appointments subsides Interest rates are in the U.S. and Germany declining and JGB sideways range at the crossing of the yield convergenceThe exchange rate The exchange rate is Dollar strength pauses x Small return of the yen and euro The range of Commodities are rebound (of crude oil prices) and Steady Precious MetalsThe base metal is developing in a mixed manner.
The crux of the market is the "reaffirmation in earnings" of the AI cycle's profit sustainability and the high level of headline sensitivity to the independence of the policy authorities. Short term. Lower interest rates x Slightly stronger risk appetite reflection market, until the event passes. quality defensive advantage The trend of the ground in the
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,565.23 | +147.16 (+0.32%) | Broad-based buyback on earnings expectations and lower interest rates |
| S&P 500 | 6,481.40 | +15.46 (+0.24%) | Confirmation of resistance to high valuations at all-time highs |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,590.14 | +45.87 (+0.21%) | Slightly higher led by Megatech |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,520.27 | +125.87 (+0.30%) | Continued to pick up the slack under the weakening yen |
| STOXX600 | 554.76 | +0.56 (+0.10%) | Slight rebound after a lull in the previous day's decline |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.24 % | -3 | Fed personnel noise recession and increased demand awaiting events |
| Germany | 2.69 % | -3 | Demand for safe assets due to spillover of lower U.S. interest rates and business confidence concerns |
| Japan | 1.63 % | 0 | Range of policy normalization observation unchanged |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.39 (-0.22%): The yen returns to the dollar after a lull in dollar buying due to lower U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1631 (-0.17%): Slight euro weakness due to pre-event holdings adjustment.
- usd/cny 7.1496 (-0.01%): Narrow range in line with the midpoint guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $64.15/bbl | +1.42% | Speculative buying on speculation of declining inventories and reports of additional tariffs against India. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $68.05/bbl | +1.23% | Same as above, autonomous rebound from the previous day's decline |
| natural gas | $2.86/MMBtu | +5.37% | Tightening supply-demand balance and short-covering |
| Gold (physical) | $3,451.22/oz | +0.53% | Lower U.S. interest rates and continued demand for risk diversification |
| silver | $38.38/oz | +0.99% | Gold-linked follow-on appreciation and industrial demand observation |
| copper | $4.38000/lb | -2.01% | Adjustment of economic sensitivity and inventory increase observed |
crypto
- Bitcoin $111,798.00 (+1.52%): The tailwind of lower interest rates and higher stock prices is also a subordinate rising ground to ETH.
- Ethereum $4,487.83 (+3.95%)BTC: Outperformed BTC and is on an upward trajectory of market traction.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/08/28 (Thu) U.S. Q2 GDP Revision - Confirmation of demand quality and core PCE revision
- Friday, 2025/08/29 U.S.-July PCE/Personal Income and Expenditures-.September Interest Rate Reduction Range The final decision-making criteria for
- 2025/08/29 (Fri) Tokyo CPI (Aug) - Inspection of the degree of slowdown in the domestic core
- 2025/09/02 (Tue) U.S. ISM Manufacturing/China Zaixin PMI - Verification of the bottoming out of the global manufacturing sector
Insight Summary
- Lower interest rates x higher stock prices x dollar lull Quality/Defensive relative advantage continues in the short term with the simultaneous progression of
- Crude oil is being driven by inventory factors and geopolitical elasticity. Range rotation of return selling and push-buying is valid
- Money straddles the event. Diversification hedging continuesGas is restrained in size due to high volatility
- The exchange rate is centered around the dollar-yen 147 level. Heavy upside / firm downside Sell back if the euro index is weak.
- Crypto is a BTC-driven Technically Driven RangeNet exposure should be controlled until the event is over.
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