This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 08/29/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMBA (Ambarella) | 82.48 | +16.78% | Vision Semiconductors and Edge AI | Q2 earnings beat, full-year growth rate revised upward to 31-351 TP3T |
| AFRM (Affirm) | 88.46 | +10.59% | BNPL and installment payment | Q4 sales +33%, first operating profit, FY26 bullish outlook |
| SATS (Echostar) | 61.79 | +8.50% | Satellite Communications & Frequency Assets | Continued Evaluation of $ 23 Billion Spectrum Sale to AT&T Continues |
| PLG (Platinum Group Metals) | 1.60 | +7.38% | PGM/Platinum | Resources stocks in anticipation of a higher platinum market price |
| S (Sentinel One) | 18.86 | +7.10% | Cyber Security EDR | Q2 sales +22%, ARR$ over 1 billion, full-year guidance raised |
| LTRX (Lantronix) | 4.97 | +6.77% | Industrial IoT and embedded networks | Full Year Financial Announcement and FY26 Growth Guideline |
| GH (Guardant Health) | 67.42 | +4.58% | liquid biopsy | Investor Day Held Announcement and Post-Earnings Momentum |
| GFI (Gold Fields) | 33.48 | +4.23% | gold mine | Buying due to rising gold prices and the prospect of interest rate cuts |
personal impression
Starring.Earnings Driven AI Peripheral StocksAMBA's Beat & Raise initiative, spilling over to data security.Recovery trend in payment fintechRisk tolerance improved with strong GMV and surplus in AFRM.Reevaluating Satellite CommunicationsContinued speculation after the sale of a large spectrum of SATS.
Commodity Related HoardingGFI and PLG led the way higher, taking cues from the monthly rally in gold and platinum.
Overall,Beat & Guidance Upward Revision x Asset Price SupportThe market development is a two-pronged market development.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/08/29
general mood
U.S. stocks retreated from recent highs on a tech-led selloff, while Europe continued to broadly fall, and Japan was in a small profit-taking trend. Background. Profit taking after the passage of AI-related events and Slight revision of interest rate cut expectations after inflation indicators The intersection of the two.
Bonds: US rates mixed, German slightly higher, JGB slightly lower yield convergenceThe exchange rate The exchange rate is Yen and Euro come and go as dollar weakness pausesCommodities are the most important part of the Commodities are. Crude oil drops back x Gold hits all-time highThe company will be in a position to make a position adjustment at the end of the month. In addition to the position adjustment at the end of the month,Policy Independence Headlines is a hotbed of mullet.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,544.88 | -92.02 (-0.20%) | Profit taking and holding adjustments before the holidays in mega caps. |
| S&P 500 | 6,460.26 | -41.60 (-0.64%) | High-level adjustment led by semiconductor and AI-related downside. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,455.55 | -249.61 (-1.15%) | Downward push with growth bias unwinding. |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,718.47 | -110.32 (-0.26%) | End-of-month profit-taking and the yen's forward-looking strength weighed on the market. |
| STOXX600 | 550.14 | -3.53 (-0.64%) | Continued decline led by financial and defensive weakness. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.22 % | +1 | A lull in front-led declines after the index and a reversal of month-end supply and demand. |
| Germany | 2.72 % | +2 | Conscious of rising term premiums even amidst the weakness in European equities. |
| Japan | 1.61 % | -1 | Supply-demand advantage under unchanged policy normalization observation. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- USD/JPY 147.02 (+0.14%): Slight dollar appreciation and yen depreciation against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD near 1.17 (around +0.10%): The euro remains resilient within the range of a lull in dollar weakness.
- USD/CNY near 7.15 (around -0.05%): Narrow range under the authorities' guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $-/bbl | - | Slumping demand and OPEC+supply increase speculation. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $-/bbl | - | Same as above, including term structure weakness. |
| natural gas | $-/MMBtu | - | Inventory and weather factors are estimated. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,473.70/oz | Around +1% | Record highs were reached due to the weak dollar and the prospect of interest rate cuts. |
| silver | $38.81/oz | -0.70% | Linked adjustment of the phase of lull in gold prices. |
| copper | $-/lb | - | Economic sensitivity handing down ahead of time. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $113,450 (+2.01%): Recovery of the simultaneous high correlation with equities and gold.
- Ethereum $4,590 (+0.04%): Relative strength maintained but also rotation driven after event digestion.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- Monday, 2025/09/01: U.S. markets closed (Labor Day) - Lower liquidity and week end gap risk.
- Tuesday, 2025/09/02 US ISM Manufacturing (August) - Confirmation of expansion/contraction in new orders and employment.
- 2025/09/02 (Tue) China, Zixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) - Inspections of the return of external demand and inventory cycles.
- Thursday, 2025/09/04: U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims - Understanding the progression of slack in labor supply and demand.
Insight Summary
Crypto is in a BTC-driven bounce phase, with an emphasis on size-controlled rotation before and after the event.
Tech-driven adjustments x Gold's all-time high Simultaneous __beta suppression operation__ with a quality-defensive axis in the short term.
U.S. 10-year is __conscious of resistance __around __4.2%, duration is mainly medium-term with gradual lengthening.
The exchange rate is __ range-bound with a lull in dollar weakness__, and the 147 level of USD/JPY is operated both as a return and a push.
Commodities are dominated by the return of crude oil,Gold continues to diversify hedging waiting for pushThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
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