This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 2025/09/02)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNKD (Mankind) | 5.74 | +25.05% | Inhalants/Circulatory Metabolism | Valuation of scPharmaceuticals acquisition $360 million and Blackstone's largest $500 million procurement |
| SBSW (Sibanye-Stillwater) | 8.28 | +9.38% | Gold/PGM Mine | Tailwind from record high gold price and BMO target hike |
| ULTA (Ulta Beauty) | 532.52 | +8.08% | Beauty Retail | Recovery with good Q2 earnings, upward revision of full year and bullish valuation |
| SMR (New Scale Power) | 37.24 | +7.47% | Small Reactor SMR | TVA x NuScale Adoption of NuScale 6GW Agreement for ENTRA1 Announced |
| KSS (Kohl's) | 16.13 | +7.10% | Department stores and omni retail | Momentum and short covering after Q2 earnings beat |
personal impression
Comparatively speaking, the watch list gives the impression that there are few patterns of names that we see all the time.
High Precious Metals and Policy Eventsmacro factorto M&A and collaboration.Highly accurate individual materialsThe ground is overlapping with the Gold prices hit an all-time high and money returned to gold mining stocks; SBSW rallies areGold high + target raisedIt is a combination of
In energySMR Large-Scale Agreementsis symbolized by TVA x ENTRA1 with up to 6GW with NuScale adoption,Demand Visualizationimpact going forward. related sectors may reignite thematic
Consumption-relatedRecovery from favorable financial resultsULTA's full-year upward revision was materially reevaluated; KSSMomentum continues after financial resultsSuggests an improvement in overall retail sentiment in the
Bio.Strategic M&A + FinancingMNKD is a set of acquisitions and non-dilutive financing.Valuation Redefinitionphase.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/02
general mood
All three major U.S. stock indices are down, with a growth-driven adjustment trend. Background. Long-term interest rates rise x Policy uncertainty (tariffs, Fed appointments) Valuation pressure due to the resurgence of the Europe is broadly lower and approaching the lower end of its yearly range, while Japan is relatively steady with a small gain. Bonds were relatively steady with U.S. and German rates rising and JGBs falling slightly. yield spreadThe exchange rate is strong dollar advantage Return of the Commodities are Low oil prices x Gold at all-time highsThe short-term is a divergence between risk aversion and the outlook for real demand. The short term is quality defensive advantageThe return of the high beta is limited ground.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,295.81 | -249.07 (-0.55%) | Broadly weak and defensive relative strength due to rising interest rates and policy noise. |
| S&P 500 | 6,415.54 | -44.72 (-0.69%) | Megatech's adjustment led by rising interest rates and valuation pressure. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,279.63 | -175.92 (-0.82%) | High growth weighting is a headwind, leading to a sell-off in tech. |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,310.49 | +121.70 (+0.29%) | Relative firmness due to push-back under a pause in yen depreciation and observation of US events. |
| STOXX600 | 543.35 | -8.11 (-1.47%) | Broad-based selling due to rising bond yields and fiscal uncertainty. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.28 % | +2 | Slowly rising due to deteriorating risk sentiment and supply observations. |
| Germany | 2.75 % | +3 | European interest rates also rose due to fiscal and inflation warnings in Europe. |
| Japan | 1.61 % | -2 | A small drop due to supply/demand after the passage of the bidding and the expectation that the policy will remain unchanged. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- USD/JPY 147.20 (+0.26%): The dollar is dominated by the rising U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1680 (-0.20%): Euro softening on crosses of European economic uncertainty and rising interest rates.
- usd/cny 7.1470 (+0.02%): Narrow range under the authorities' guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.40/bbl | -1.86% | The market fell back due to rising interest rates and a slowdown in demand outlook. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.40/bbl | -1.78% | Softening due to European economic uncertainty and risk-off. |
| natural gas | $2.75/MMBtu | -1.43% | Inventory and weather factors are expected to prevail. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,505.00/oz | +2.60% | Record highs due to policy uncertainty and hedging demand. |
| silver | $39.50/oz | +2.54% | Supported by high gold price tracking and industrial demand observation. |
| copper | $4.38000/lb | -0.57% | The upside is heavy due to macro uncertainties and the observation of inventory growth. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $111,980.00 (-0.83%): The combination of risk-off and high gold prices is causing the upside to be heavy.
- Ethereum $4,560.00 (-0.61%): Broad-based adjustment, including alts, but the underlying tone is still high.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/03 (Wed) US - JOLTS Job Openings (July) - Inspection of the degree of slack in labor supply and demand
- 2025/09/04 (Thu) U.S. - New Unemployment Insurance Claims - Confirmation of a slowdown signal in employment
- 2025/09/04 (Thu) Eurozone, Retail Sales (July) - Verification of the degree of pickup in domestic demand
- 2025/09/05 (Fri) U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug) - Confirmation of demand persistence and price index trends
Insight Summary
- Rising interest rates x Policy uncertainty The relative dominance of beta suppression and quality/defensives in equities continues.
- The US 10-year is testing the upside near 4.31 TP3T,Medium-Term Duration Increases in Stages Valid.
- The exchange rate is __ return of the dollar's strength advantage __, and the range strategy for the dollar/yen is to return to the high 147s and push back to the low 146s.
- In commodities, we will build a pair of __return sellers in oil x buyers in gold__ and respond to a renewed rise in inflation expectations by reducing hedges.
- Crypto remains volatile and high,Size suppression rotation and BTC relative strength is maintained as a basic policy.
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