This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 2025/09/03)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL (alphabet) | 230.66 | +9.14% | Search, Advertising, AI | Regulatory Concerns Recede with Minor Relief from Antitrust Court Ruling |
| SMR (New Scale Power) | 40.42 | +8.54% | Small Reactor SMR | TVA x ENTRA1's plan to install up to 6 GW announced |
| OSCR (Oscar Health) | 17.68 | +7.61% | Digital Insurance/ACA | Wells Fargo Conference Reaffirms Full-Year Forecast |
| TGTX (TGTX Therapeutics) | 31.71 | +6.66% | Biopharmaceuticals & MS | Existing $100 million buyback completed and new $100 million quota approved |
| CLS (Celestica) | 211.87 | +5.60% | EMS and AI Infrastructure Manufacturing | Continued evaluation and bullish research on HPS expansion for AI infrastructure |
| WDC (Western Digital) | 86.00 | +4.99% | Data Storage HDD/Flash | Morgan Stanley Top Pick Selection |
| UEC (Uranium Energy) | 11.51 | +4.83% | uranium mining | Announcement of establishment of refining and conversion subsidiary and observation of target increase |
personal impression
Starring.Large Tech, Google Regulation Concerns RetreatAlphabet's antitrust ruling sets back spin-off risk and reassesses expectations for continued AI collaboration.
Nuclear-related demand visualizationFunds flowed into SMR due to TVA x ENTRA1's 6GW plan, while UEC's theme continued with the establishment of a refining and conversion subsidiary and valuation hike observations.
Healthcare is an event and capital policyOSCR reaffirms guidance at conference; TGTX strengthens shareholder returns with new $100 million buyback facility.
AI infrastructure and storage continue to be sought afterCelestica has a bullish tone on HPS expansion. Celestica is bullish on HPS expansion, and WDC expects supply/demand improvement with Morgan Stanley's Top Pick selection.
The big picture,Rulings, Plans, Guidance, RatingsThe funds seem to be concentrated on highly reliable materials such as
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/03
general mood
U.S. stocks are mixed, with the S&P and Nasdaq higher and the Dow slightly lower in a tech-led rebound. Background. Avoiding the worst of the Google antitrust ruling x Weak employment numbers re-enforce interest rate cut speculation A recovery in valuation resistance by the Stoxx 600 rebounded in Europe, while the yen's weakness paused in Japan, leading to a firmer downward adjustment.
Bonds slightly lower in the U.S., flat in Germany, and slightly higher in Japan yield convergenceThe exchange rate The exchange rate is A lull in dollar weakness and a small return of the euro and yenCommodities are the most important part of the Commodities are. Gold continues to rise to all-time highs x Oil softens Branch of.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,271.23 | -24.58 (-0.05%) | A small drop due to defensive bias gains and rebalancing. |
| S&P 500 | 6,448.26 | +32.72 (+0.51%) | Risk tolerance recovered due to high mega-tech and the prospect of interest rate cuts. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,497.73 | +218.10 (+1.03%) | Tech-led buyback dominance. |
| Nikkei 225 | 41,938.89 | -371.60 (-0.88%) | The market fell back due to the view of high interest rates and the slowing return of foreign demand stocks. |
| STOXX600 | 546.72 | +3.37 (+0.62%) | A lull in bond selling and higher resource and health care prices led to a rebound. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.22 % | -6 | Decline due to weak jobs index and pre-event supply and demand. |
| Germany | 2.74 % | +0 | Stalemate across U.S. interest rate trends. |
| Japan | 1.64 % | +1 | Slightly higher due to remaining policy normalization speculation and supply/demand. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 148.05 (-0.19%): The yen returns to the dollar after a lull in dollar buying due to lower U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1660 (+0.17%): Slightly higher due to a tug-of-war between the recovery of risk sentiment against the dollar and the prospect of a rate cut.
- usd/cny 7.1400 (+0.03%): Narrow range under authorities guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.95/bbl | -2.49% | Downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increase speculation and demand concerns. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.60/bbl | -2.23% | Ditto, the benchmark also continued to weaken. |
| natural gas | $2.8260/MMBtu | +2.69% | Observation of tight supply and demand and the progression of short-covering. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,576.59/oz | +1.20% | Higher prices due to employment softening and uncertainty hedging. |
| silver | $41.34/oz | +1.10% | Stronger demand for safe assets and following high gold prices. |
| copper | $4.55850/lb | -0.24% | Weighed down by macro uncertainty and inventory observations. |
crypto
- Ethereum $4,484.10 (+1.57%)L2: Relative strength due to persistent L2 flow and supply/demand tightening observation.
- Bitcoin $111,972.53 (+0.69%): Return of risk tolerance in response to lower interest rates and stock rebound.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/04 (Thu) U.S. - New Unemployment Insurance Claims - Confirmation of Loosening Labor Supply/Demand
- 2025/09/05 (Fri) U.S. Employment Report (August) - Balance between wages and unemployment rate spills over into rate cut range
- 2025/09/05 (Fri) U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing (Aug) - Confirmation of demand persistence and price index trends
- 2025/09/09 (Tue) China - Trade Statistics (Aug)-Inspections of the return of external demand and inventory cycle
Insight Summary
- Crypts are under size suppression. Relative Allocation of BTC Axis Continuation is reasonable.
- Lower interest rates x Tech recovery Continued quality superiority through a combination of
- The U.S. 10-year is up in the 4.21 TP3T range,Medium-Term Duration Increases in Stages appropriate
- The dollar is waiting for an event. range returnand dollar-yen selling/buying turnover around 148
- Commodities are Maintain gold's push x oil's return to the market Pair construction of
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