This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 2025/09/04)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INOD (INODATA) | 41.10 | +12.05% | AI data maintenance and annotation | Bullish Articles and Institutional Inflow Observation |
| HIMS (Hims and Hers) | 48.11 | +8.21% | Digital Health and Telehealth | Regulatory Concerns Set Back by Reports of Dismissal of Eli Lilly Lawsuit |
| CRDO (Credo Technology) | 134.00 | +7.40% | Data Center High-Speed Communications | Closing beats & full-term raises |
| FN (Fabry Net) | 362.16 | +7.30% | EMS & Optical Modules | Continued post-earnings rally and stronger demand for AI optics |
| PTON (peloton) | 8.12 | +6.84% | connected fitness | Accompanying appreciation due to improved ground conditions |
| ALAB (Astera Lab) | 187.95 | +6.42% | AI connection semiconductors (CXL/PCIe) | Price Target Raised and Citi Conference Appearance |
| ATRO (Astronix) | 39.06 | +6.14% | Aerospace Electronics | Momentum after strong Q2 and upward guidance revision |
personal impression
AI Infrastructure Revaluation Movement.
CRDOFN of optics and EMS, and connected semiconductors, starting from the "beat and raise" ofALABThe market was supported by expectations of data center expansion.
Healthcare is event-driven. HIMSwas bought back on the back of receding litigation risks, improving overall sentiment in the sector.INODis a return of funds to small AI-related companies due to bullish articles and observations of institutional inflows.
Consumption and aerospace are following the ground. PTON is mainly rising in tandem with index gains; ATRO continues momentum on the back of recent earnings and improved guidance.Highly accurate financial results, reports, and court decisionsThe market was driven by materials such as the following.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/04
general mood
In the U.S., the three major indices all continued to rise to new highs, and the market recovered risk tolerance due to renewed strength in interest rate cut speculation in the wake of weak employment-related data. In Europe, the market is slightly higher, with the Stoxx 600 rising to firm the market. Japan rebounded sharply and is in a relatively strong recovery trend. Resonance between the pre-hike adjustment before the employment data and lower long-term interest rates, a cycle of tech and quality dominance.
Bond yields converge with US/Germany lower and JGB slightly lower. Currencies are in a range of dollar weakness pausing x yen and euro returning slightly. Commodities contrast with oil falling x gold holding high. Crypto assets are rotation-driven with highs firmer.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,621.29 | +350.06 (+0.77%) | Weak employment numbers re-enforce rate cut speculation; funds return to defensive and tech. |
| S&P 500 | 6,502.08 | +53.82 (+0.83%) | Quality-driven increase in the highest price range. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,707.69 | +209.97 (+0.98%) | Megatech-led return expansion. |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,580.27 | +641.38 (+1.53%) | High-tech led turnaround linked to a lull in yen weakness and US strength. |
| STOXX600 | 550.39 | +3.67 (+0.67%) | Sentiment is improving due to the spread of US interest rate cut speculation and bond stability. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.16 % | -6 | Decreased on expectations of a rate cut in response to weak employment data. |
| Germany | 2.72 % | -2 | Slightly lower due to spillover of lower U.S. interest rates and stable supply and demand. |
| Japan | 1.61 % | -3 | Slightly lower due to policy unchanged and bid supply/demand. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 147.32 (-0.49%): Dollar sales and yen return due to lower U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1695 (+0.30%): Euro slightly rebounding under interest rate cut speculation.
- usd/cny 7.1475 (+0.11%): Narrow range under the authorities' guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $63.30/bbl | -1.02% | Downward pressure due to inventory increase observation and OPEC+ production increase speculation. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.90/bbl | -1.04% | Similar supply/demand concerns and a swing back to risk appetite. |
| natural gas | $2.80/MMBtu | -0.92% | Continuation of the range of supply and demand. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,595.00/oz | +0.51% | Sustained demand for hedging against falling interest rates and softening employment. |
| silver | $41.10/oz | -0.58% | A lull in high gold prices and position liquidation. |
| copper | $4.53000/lb | -0.63% | Weighed down by macro uncertainty and inventory observations. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $110,800.00 (-1.05%): Adjustment of equity and interest rate linkages and consolidation of holdings before the weekend events.
- Ethereum $4,520.00 (+0.80%): Relative strength due to L2 flows and tight supply/demand observation.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/05 (Fri) U.S. - Employment Statistics/ISM Non-Manufacturing (August) - Confirmation of Wage Stickiness and Demand Stickiness
- 2025/09/09 (Tue) China - Trade Statistics (Aug) - Inspection of Foreign Demand and Inventory Cycles
- 2025/09/10 (Wed) U.S. CPI (Aug) - Verification of whether core has re-accelerated
- Thursday, 2025/09/11 ECB Governing Council - confirming whether to leave stance unchanged and the tone of forward guidance
Insight Summary
- Quality Defensive Relative Advantage Continued
- Step-Up of the U.S. Duration Medium-term Axis
- Dollar/Yen strategy to move up and down around 147
- Pair construction of oil return sale x gold diversification hedge
- Crypto rotates BTC axis size suppression
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