This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (2025/09/05 based on closing price)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWRE (Guidewire) | 260.71 | +20.15% | Cloud SaaS for Insurance | Q4 beat ARR$1 billion, FY26 forecast raised |
| IOT (Samsara) | 42.09 | +17.44% | IoT Platforms & AI | Q2 beat and full year guidance revised upward |
| BILL (Building Holdings, Inc.) | 51.54 | +10.39% | Payment SaaS for SMEs | Q4 earnings beat, $300 million share buyback announced |
| CLS (Celestica) | 242.68 | +9.64% | EMS and AI Infrastructure Manufacturing | AI Infrastructure Contract Expansion Evaluation and Post-Financial Statement Momentum |
| AVGO (Broadcom) | 334.89 | +9.41% | Semiconductor and AI Accelerators | Strong Q3 results, strong AI contract ASIC and bullish outlook |
| BNTX (Biontec) | 112.46 | +8.66% | Biopharmaceuticals & Cancer Immunology | Breast Cancer ADC Major Trial Success Report |
| LIT (Global X Lithium & Battery ETF) | 50.56 | +7.53% | Lithium and Battery ETFs | China Supply Adjustment Observation and Market Rebound |
| PATH (UI PATH) | 11.49 | +5.90% | RPA and automation software | Q2 beat, full-year forecast raised |
personal impression
Good results led by software x AI related; SaaS revaluation due to beat and raise chain of GWRE, IOT, and BILL.
Semiconductors are expected to be a sector leader on the strength of AI accelerators, AVGO's strong results and order outlook, and biotech and natural resources are individual. Biotech and Resources are individual sources; BNTX is expected to see a new drug after the success of a major ADC trial; LIT is likely to see a rebound in prices and supply adjustment in China; and the biotech sector is likely to see a rebound in prices.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/05
general mood
U.S. stocks are in a holding pattern of small declines despite renewed strength in interest rate cut speculation due to weak employment indicators, while European stocks continue to fall due to concerns of economic slowdown, and Japan is in a steady, continuous tone of growth.Decline in long-term interest rates x Dollar softeningresonance, oil softness andMaintain high gold pricesContrast between the two. The short-term stance isquality defensive advantageandHigh beta return limitedground.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,400.86 | -220.43 (-0.48%) | Weak employment data and gains in prior highs |
| S&P 500 | 6,481.50 | -20.58 (-0.32%) | Growth-driven risk adjustment |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,700.39 | -7.31 (-0.03%) | Sorting unwinds at Megatech. |
| Nikkei 225 | 43,018.75 | +438.48 (+1.03%) | Continued high-tech-led growth under a lull in yen weakness |
| STOXX600 | 549.21 | -1.18 (-0.21%) | Fears of economic slowdown and lackluster financial developments |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.09 % | -7 | Softening employment brings rate cut factoring forward |
| Germany | 2.70 % | -2 | Demand for safe assets due to spillover of lower U.S. interest rates and economic uncertainty |
| Japan | 1.60 % | -1 | Supply-demand advantage under policy unchanged |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.85 (-0.32%): Sell dollar and return to buy yen due to lower U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1730 (+0.30%): Euro slightly higher in tandem with dollar softening.
- usd/cny 7.1470 (-0.01%): Narrow range under the authorities' guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.70/bbl | -0.95% | Slowing demand outlook and supply observation weighs |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.10/bbl | -1.20% | Continued economic uncertainty and risk aversion in Europe |
| natural gas | $2.78/MMBtu | -0.71% | Continued range of inventory and weather factors |
| Gold (physical) | $3,620.00/oz | +0.70% | Declining interest rates and increasing demand for uncertainty hedging |
| silver | $41.50/oz | +0.97% | Followed by high gold prices and industrial demand expectations |
| copper | $4.51000/lb | -0.44% | Macro Uncertainty and Inventory Observations Weighing |
crypto
- Bitcoin $111,600.00 (+0.72%): Buying back on the back of lower interest rates and a pickup in equities.
- Ethereum $4,560.00 (+0.89%)L2: L2 flow persistence and relative strength of supply-demand tightening observation.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/09 (Tue) China - Trade Statistics (Aug)-Inspection of the degree of recovery in external demand and inventory cycle
- 2025/09/10 (Wed) U.S. CPI (Aug) - Determine core stickiness and gasoline contribution
- Thursday, 2025/09/11 ECB Governing Council Meeting - Updated Tone of Forward Guidance and Growth Outlook
- 2025/09/12 (Fri) Preliminary U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence (September) - Confirmation of the direction of inflation expectations
Insight Summary
- Lower interest ratesQuality Defensive Specific Weight Slight IncreaseContinuation of
- The U.S. Duration isMedium-term-centered staged accumulation
- The exchange rate isDollar softening rangeDollar/Yen rotation of 146-148 based on the assumption that
- Commodities areReturn of crude oil x gold maintaining pushbackPairs of
- cryptoBTC axis, ETH relative strengthMobile rotating operation of
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