This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 2025/09/08)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL (Planet Loves) | 9.66 | +47.93% | Earth Observation and Satellite Data | Q2 results beat, full-year upward revision |
| MBOT (Microbot Medical) | 4.50 | +22.95% | medical robot | FDA 510(k) approval for LIBERTY endovascular robot |
| QS (Quantum Scape) | 9.49 | +21.05% | all solid-state battery | Live demonstration of all solid-state cells |
| HOOD (Robin Hood) | 117.28 | +15.83% | neo broker | Decided to adopt S&P500 |
| ALAB (Astera Lab) | 216.10 | +13.02% | AI connection semiconductors (CXL/PCIe) | Bullish coverage after target increase |
| APP (uplavin) | 547.04 | +11.59% | Mobile Ads & App Measurement | Decided to adopt S&P500 |
| LIF (Life 360) | 103.11 | +10.35% | Family Monitoring App | Target Raise and Institutional Buying Observations |
| INOD (INODATA) | 47.72 | +9.75% | AI data maintenance and annotation | Q2 sales +79%, momentum after full-year upward revision |
personal impression
HOOD and APP's decision to be included in the S&P 500 has stimulated supply and demand due to expectations of an inflow of index-linked funds.
Personal attention.PL (Planet Labs)The company will continue to be watched closely as QS is expected to accelerate the monetization of its business with Beats & Raises and QS is expected to commercialize its business with live demonstrations of all-solid-state cells.
AI Infrastructure Connectivity and Data Developmentalso continue to be closely monitored.ALAB (Astera Loves)I have been holding back on INOD due to earnings, but would consider buying it when the timing is right.
Clarifying Materials for Regulatory ApprovalMBOT's LIBERTY receives FDA 510(k) approval for commercialization; LIF continues target hike and institutional buying speculation.
Overall, risk-on continues amid speculation about labor market developments and expectations of interest rate cuts, but we do not want to miss good timing.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/08
general mood
The three major U.S. stock indices were all slightly higher,Nasdaq at its highest levelThe price of the index remained at the high end of the range. The backdrop is the continued speculation of interest rate cuts and a supply/demand turnaround related to index replacements. Europe continues to be broadly higher, while Japan is resilient with significant gains. Bonds were lower in the U.S. and Germany and slightly lower in the JGB.yield convergenceThe exchange rate The exchange rate isA lull in dollar weakness and a small return of the yen and eurorange. Commodities areCrude oil rebounds x Gold remains highContrast between the two. The short-term stance isquality defensive advantageandPre-event beta suppressionThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,514.95 | +114.09 (+0.25%) | Continued to grow on the back of interest rate cut speculation and support from individual materials. |
| S&P 500 | 6,495.15 | +13.65 (+0.21%) | Index replacement-related supply and demand and tech firm. |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,798.70 | +98.31 (+0.45%) | Megatech led the way to the highest price. |
| Nikkei 225 | 43,643.81 | +625.06 (+1.45%) | Improvement in the external environment and pushback. |
| STOXX600 | 552.04 | +2.83 (+0.52%) | Continued with a broad-based rise. |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.04 % | -6 | Interest rate cut observation predominates as we wait for indicators. |
| Germany | 2.70 % | -2 | Spillover of lower U.S. interest rates and demand for safe assets. |
| Japan | 1.59 % | -1 | Range under the policy unchanged observation. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.30 (-0.37%): Sell dollar and return to buy yen due to lower U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1750 (+0.17%): Euro slightly higher in tandem with dollar softening.
- usd/cny 7.1420 (-0.07%): Narrow range under authorities guidance.
(Exchange rates are representative of the prevailing range near the London/New York close.)
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.26/bbl | +0.63% | Return after OPEC+ decision to increase production slightly, tug of war between supply and demand observations. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.02/bbl | +0.79% | Ditto, autonomous rebound of tightness awareness. |
| natural gas | $2.82/MMBtu | +1.15% | Tight supply-demand observation and short covering. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,640.50/oz | +0.54% | Continued interest rate declines and uncertainty hedging. |
| silver | $41.80/oz | +0.72% | Gold-linked and industrial demand observation. |
| copper | $4.49500/lb | +0.33% | Economic expectations and inventory expectations rebound autonomously. |
crypto
- Bitcoin $112,850.00 (+1.12%): Buybacks due to a combination of higher stock prices and lower interest rates.
- Ethereum $4,620.00 (+1.32%)L2: L2 flow persistence and relative strength of supply-demand tightening observation.
(Representative value near the closing price on major exchanges)
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/10 (Wed) US - CPI (Aug) - Confirmation of core stickiness and energy contribution
- Thursday, 2025/09/11 ECB Executive Board Meeting - Growth Outlook and Tone of Guidance
- 2025/09/12 (Fri) Preliminary U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence (September) - Direction of Inflation Expectations
- 2025/09/12 (Fri) UK - Monthly GDP (July) - Sustainability check of services traction
Insight Summary
- Lower interest rates x Tech firmQuality advantage due to the simultaneous progression of
- The bonds areMedium-Term Duration Increases in Stages
- The exchange rate isReturn of the dollar to a lower rangeDollar/Yen rotation around the 146 level based on the assumption that
- Commodities areReturn of crude oil x gold maintaining pushbackPairs of
- cryptoBTC axis, ETH relative strengthMobile rotating operation of
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