This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/17/2025)
| epithet title | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLUG (Plug Power) | 2.00 | +19.05% | Hydrogen & Fuel Cells | Lack of materials, but soaring due to return to theme |
| QBTS (D-Wave Quantum) | 22.54 | +18.76% | quantum annealing | Announcement of the Inaugural "Qubits Japan 2025" First "Qubits Japan 2025 |
| BLDP (Ballard Power Systems) | 2.52 | +14.55% | fuel cell | New FCmove-SC AnnouncedNew FCmove-SC Announced |
| GRRRR (Gorilla Technology) | 20.07 | +13.13% | AI Data Center | Southeast Asia AI Data Center $1.4 billion contract announced |
| LYFT (Lift) | 22.84 | +13.13% | Ridesharing and automated driving | Waymo and Nashville Announces Robotaxi Deployment |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 21.99 | +9.95% | quantum computing | 52-week high renewal, Quantum theme hunting |
| BE (Bloom Energy) | 79.67 | +8.71% | Fuel Cell and Data Center Power Supply | Expectations for continued target increase and Oracle collaboration |
| AMSC (American Superconductor Corporation) | 60.49 | +7.04% | Transmission & Grid Equipment | Renewal of 52-week high and demand for power grid reinforcement speculation 52-week renewal and demand for power grid reinforcement |
| PL (Planet Labs) | 10.23 | +4.92% | Satellite Data & Earth Observation | Analyst Target Raise Reported |
personal impression
The impression is that materials were concentrated in automated driving and AI infrastructure.
Waymo x LyftRobotaxi expansion of theAI Data Center Construction Contract (GRRRR), ,Raise fuel cell targets (BE)is the core of the object.
On the other hand, hydrogen-related (PLUG and BLDP)thematic regressionThe upside for stocks that lack clear materials is fragile, as there is a strong upward trend in the
Quantum (QBTS and RGTI)Event MomentumContinued high in the Electric Power Grid Related (AMSC), thedemand storyReevaluation of the
AI demand → Power and infrastructure → Mobile servicesThe movement appears to be a thematic chain of events that spills over to
The FOMC event has passed without incident and there is no sense of exhaustion, so the market momentum is likely to continue.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/17
general mood
U.S. stocks areDow rises despite sluggish growth after FOMC day rate cut announcement; S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall slightlyand waiting for the event to pass.Struggling between megatech preference and valuation consolidation.The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Europe.STOXX600 almost flatJapan waits for U.S. policy inNikkei 225 falls backThe market is cooling off from the overheated highs of the previous year. Interest rates areU.S. 10-year slightly up, German 10-year down, JGB flatThe position was slightly adjusted at the exchange rate ofWeak dollar, strong yen, strong euroRisk asset friendly placement of.
Commodities areWTI continued to fall in the mid-$64 range; gold held higherThe crypto assets areSmall mixed results awaiting passage of eventsThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | Compared to the previous day Compared to the previous day | Background Background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,018.32 | +260.42 (+0.57%) | Favorable interest rate cuts and financial led rally |
| S&P 500 | 6,600.35 | -6.60 (-0.10%) | Slight drop due to mixed trading, progress in incorporating events |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,261.33 | -66.78 (-0.30%) | High beta adjustment, semiconductor gains prevailing |
| Nikkei 225 | 44,790.38 | -111.89 (-0.25%) | Overheat clearance at higher prices, awaiting events |
| STOXX600 | 550.63 | -0.16 (-0.03%) | Sectors remained flat with little sense of direction among sectors |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Compared to previous day (bp) Compared to previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America USA | 4.07 % | +3 | Slightly higher due to a lull in forward expectations after the rate cut announcement |
| Germany | 2.68 % | -2 | Decline in quality orientation waiting for policy events |
| Japan | 1.60 % | 0 | Sideways due to wait-and-see before BOJ meeting |
exchange rate
- usd/jpy 146.41 (-0.67%): Dollar selling and yen buying prevailing with limited US interest rate rise.
- EUR/USD 1.1805 (+0.37%)Euro buy-backs prevail due to persistent interest rate cut speculation.
- usd/cny 7.1130 (-0.16%): slight depreciation of the dollar against the yuan under the guidance of the authorities' mid-term price.
commodity
| Item Item | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | Compared to the previous day Compared to the previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $64.39/bbl$64.39/barrel | -0.39% | Uncertainty about demand outlook and inventory speculation after rate cut announcement |
| Brent Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil | $68.06/bbl$68.06/barrel | -0.26% | Supply-demand equilibrium view and offsetting dollar weakness |
| natural gas | $3.10/MMBtu | -0.10% | Tug of war between inventory and temperature outlook |
| Gold (physical) Gold (physical) | $3,681.80/oz$3,681.80/oz | -0.05% | Real interest rates flat and hovering at high levels |
| silver | $42.50/oz$42.50/oz | -0.40% | Gold-linked adjustment |
| copper | $4.70500/lb$4.70500/lb | -0.27% | Traffic waiting for China-related headlines |
crypto
- Bitcoin $115,000 (-0.31%): Direction limited pending the passage of events.
- Ethereum $4,520 (-0.08%): Range continues as we wait for large materials.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- Thursday, 2025/09/18 FOMC (policy rate, SEP, and Chairman's press conference): Focus on dots and guidance for the first rate cut.
- Thursday, 2025/09/18 UK MPC (Policy Rate): Clues to QT policy under deferral.
- 2025/09/18-19 (Thu-Fri) Bank of Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting: Whether or not there will be adjustments in interest rate guidance and government bond purchase operations.2025/09/18-19 (Thu-Fri) BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting:Adjustment of Interest Rate Guidance and JGB Buying Operations
- 2025/09/19 (Fri) Japan, National CPI (August): energy contribution and the degree of slowdown in the core tone.
Insight Summary
- Relative Advantage of Large U.S. Growthis maintained, until the event passes.Index Hedge Thicknessis safe.
- Japanese stocks are waiting for a pushRefrain from following new highs.spot turnoverlooks good.
- Duration is neutral to slightly longand in the vicinity of 4% in the U.S. 10 years.meeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.is appropriate.
- Exchange rate is dollar depreciation biasThe EUR buyback and USD/JPY are safe to reverse in the low 146s.
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the verge of a pushGas is good to wait and see until inventory is confirmed.
- Crypto maintains a light stanceAiming for a push after the event bora passes is safe.
English
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