This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/18/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QS (Quantum Scape) | 12.13 | +18.23% | all solid-state battery | Continued evaluation of Ducati demonstration equipment |
| CLSK (Clean Spark) | 13.46 | +17.66% | Bitcoin Mining | BTC High High Linked High |
| BFLY (Butterfly Network) | 1.89 | +15.95% | Mobile Ultrasound and Medical AI | Nothing in particular, late start? |
| LEU (Centrus Energy) | 262.65 | +14.12% | Enriched Uranium and Fuel Services | U.S. Strategic Uranium Stockpile Expansion Observed |
| FORM (Form Factor) | 36.04 | +13.44% | Semiconductor Test Equipment | None in particular, theme flow |
| OUST (AUST) | 34.72 | +13.43% | LiDAR and industrial automation | Financial Evaluation and Supply-Demand Driven |
| SNPS (Synopsis) | 480.11 | +12.56% | EDA and AI Semiconductor Design | AI design demand expected |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 24.74 | +12.51% | quantum computing | Quantum of magnitude of the 52-week high renewal. |
| OKLO | 104.97 | +10.16% | Small Reactor (SMR) | Spillover of policy support coverage |
| MKSI (MKS Instruments) | 129.92 | +8.77% | Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment | Q2 favorable earnings evaluation and higher prices |
| MOB (Mobilicom) | 8.06 | +7.18% | Drone Communications and National Defense | Lingering effects of increased orders from U.S. Tier 1 customers |
personal impression
Nuclear Chain and QuantumLEU and OKLO continue to receive inflows of funds into thePolicy Support HeadlinesContinued spillover of the RGTI, the RGTI is52-week high renewedMomentum is strong at the
All solid-state battery (QS)was long on positive feedback from actual equipment demonstrations, and CLSK continued to grow on crypto asset appreciation. In semiconductors, SNPS and MKSIAI design demand/equipment demandThe rise was due to the speculation of
On the other hand, BFLY, FORM, etc.Tonal highs in materially diluted issuesare also scattered.
Theme-driven market conditions continue to prevail,News freshness and associative strengthappears to be the key to short-term performance.
Overall, the market reflects positive factors due to expectations of a rate cut with the passage of the FOMC event, but we are also looking at the possibility that negative news could cool things down quickly.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/18
general mood
U.S. stocks areAll three major indices reached new highs, ,Megatech initiativeand after the passage of the first interest rate cut.continued preference for riskThe market strengthened in Europe isSTOXX600 continues to growShitek traction, JapanNikkei 225 falls backOverheat clearance at the high end of the range at
Interest rates areU.S. 10-year up slightly, Germany down, JGB flatFine-tuning after the event and the exchange rate atWeak dollar, strong yen, strong euroRisk reversal is improved by the combination of
Commodities areWTI continued to fall and gold held at high levelsThe crypto is awaveringThe process of event bora stripping in.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,142.42 | +124.10 (+0.27%) | The rise is due to a sense of relief after the rate cut passed and financial and capital goods following suit. |
| S&P 500 | 6,631.96 | +31.61 (+0.48%) | Megatech Buyand is rising on soft landing observations |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,470.73 | +209.40 (+0.94%) | AI-related and semiconductorThe rise is due to the return of funds to |
| Nikkei 225 | 44,790.38 | -111.89 (-0.25%) | The highs are dominated by gains, a wait-and-see approach before the event. |
| STOXX600 | 555.01 | +4.38 (+0.80%) | U.S. interest rate cut follow-uptech-ledcontinued to increase in |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.07 % | +3 | This is a slight increase due to the retraction of the advance observation after the passing of the interest rate cut. |
| Germany | 2.68 % | -2 | Yields are declining due to low inflation observation and quality orientation. |
| Japan | 1.60 % | 0 | The market is flat on a wait-and-see basis before and after the BOJ meeting. |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.41 (-0.67%): The dollar is selling off and the yen is buying ahead, limited by rising U.S. interest rates.
- EUR/USD 1.1805 (+0.37%): After the passage of the U.S. interest rate cutweak dollar situationThe euro is strong at
- usd/cny 7.1130 (-0.16%): The yuan is slightly higher under the authorities' mid-price guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $64.39/bbl | -0.39% | Demand outlook uncertainties and inventory speculation continue to weigh on the market. |
| Brent Crude Oil | $68.06/bbl | -0.26% | Macro uncertainties and a weaker dollar offset the small decline. |
| natural gas | $3.10/MMBtu | -0.10% | The tug-of-war between inventories and the temperature outlook is moving in small increments. |
| Gold (physical) | $3,681.80/oz | -0.05% | Real interest rates are flat and holding at high levels |
| silver | $42.50/oz | -0.40% | It is a small drop in the gold-linked |
| copper | $4.70500/lb | -0.27% | The range is waiting for China-related headlines |
crypto
- Bitcoin $115,000.00 (-0.31%)The market is slightly down due to a holding adjustment after the event passed.
- Ethereum $4,520.00 (-0.08%)The market is moving slightly in a range of material difficulties.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/19 (Fri) Bank of Japan, Policy Decision, Governor's Press ConferenceFocus is on whether there will be adjustments to guidance and bond-buying operations.
- 2025/09/19 (Fri) Japan, National CPI (August)Energy: focus on the energy contribution and the degree to which the core tone has slowed.
- 2025/09/23 (Tue) Preliminary Global PMI (US, Europe, UK): Focus on the direction of the demand and price indexes and the sustainability of the services initiative.
- 2025/09/24 (Wed) U.S. - New Home Sales: Inspect the resilience of housing demand after interest rates fall.
Insight Summary
- U.S. large growth bias upContinued, Index isMomentum tracking of event passageHedge thickness is also safe.
- Rise of Relative Strength of European TechThe short term isRotating in pairs with U.S. semiconductorslooks good.
- Duration is neutral to slightly longThe U.S. 10-year 4% range is in the low 3T range.meeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.is appropriate.
- Exchange rate is dollar depreciation biasThe EUR buyback advantage and the USD/JPY is safe to reverse in the 146s.
- Crude oil is back in the market and gold is on the way outCopper is waiting for headlines.weak pushlooks good.
- Crypto maintains a light stanceand after the event bora stripping.Gradual pushis safe.
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