This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
ウォッチリスト（2025/09/23 終値ベース）
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI (Big Bear AI) | 7.99 | +12.85% | AI分析・政府向け | 米海軍向けSMX連携公表による国防需要期待 |
| ASTS（ASTスペースモバイル） | 54.80 | +12.18% | 衛星通信・衛星携帯 | 目標見直し混在と出来高急増による思惑買い |
| USAR (US Air Rare Earths) | 17.85 | +11.01% | critical mineral | S&P Global BMI採用観測と磁石工場進捗思惑 |
| RGTI (Righetti Computing) | 31.46 | +10.89% | quantum computing | B. Rileyが目標$35へ引き上げ |
| TMC（TMCザ・メタルズ） | 6.32 | +9.53% | 海底採鉱・ニッケル | 特になし。資源テーマ |
| MOB (Mobilicom) | 8.86 | +8.71% | Drone Communications and National Defense | ティア1防衛受注増額の余韻 |
| ONDS (Ondus Holdings, Inc.) | 7.88 | +8.54% | 無人機・ロボ向け通信 | 退役米陸軍少将の顧問就任公表 |
| PL (Planet Labs) | 12.05 | +8.46% | Satellite Data & Earth Observation | 2Q決算後のモメンタム継続 |
| QBTS (D-Wave Quantum) | 27.52 | +7.21% | quantum annealing | B. Rileyが目標$33へ引き上げと量子物色継続 |
| UUUU (Energy Fuels) | 16.67 | +7.06% | Uranium mining and smelting | セクター比較記事露出による原子力物色継続 |
| RKLB (Rocket Lab) | 52.91 | +6.22% | Space Transportation and Small Rocket | NASA向けESCAPADE機体引き渡し報道と目標引き上げ |
| SOUN（サウンドハウンドAI） | 18.05 | +4.27% | 音声AI・会話エージェント | Red Lobster向け電話注文AI導入発表 |
personal impression
量子・宇宙・国防が引き続き強い。
RGTI・QBTSの目標引き上げandBBAIの海軍案件を起点に、ハイベータのテーマ物色継続。
原子力・資源サイドはUSARの指数採用観測andUUUUの比較記事露出で支援、宇宙はRKLBのNASA案件進展で連想が広がる。
指数は高値警戒の揉み合いながら、ニュース鮮度×テクニカル順張りの個別主導が続く。
押し待ちの動きもあり、ネガティブニュースが手仕舞いきっかけになりそうな気もしつつ、バランスが求められる相場の印象です。
market insight
【分析日】2025/09/23
general mood
U.S. stocks areテック主導の反落でS&P500とナスダックが続伸基調を一服、ダウも小幅安の高値圏でのガス抜きphase.
Europe.STOXX600 rebounded.で資源・ディフェンシブが下支えのセクター間綱引きaspect.
日本は秋分の日で休場、海外主導のリスク選好持続を見極めの様子見ムードThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
金利は米10年小幅低下、独横ばい、日本横ばいのイベント明けポジション微修正The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
The exchange rate isドル小反発の低ボラレンジThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Commodities areWTI反落・金は高値圏維持の需給とマクロの拮抗The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
暗号資産は方向感限定のイベントボラ剝落過程The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,292.78 | -88.76 (-0.19%) | 利下げ通過後の過熱感整理 |
| S&P 500 | 6,656.92 | -36.83 (-0.55%) | メガテック反落とバリュエーション調整 |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,573.47 | -215.50 (-0.95%) | 半導体・高ベータ利確 |
| Nikkei 225 | - | +0.00 (+0.00%) | 秋分の日で休場 |
| STOXX600 | 554.95 | +1.55 (+0.28%) | 資源・ディフェンシブの底上げ |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.12 % | -3 | イベント明けのデュレーション回帰 |
| Germany | 2.74 % | 0 | データ待ちの中立レンジ |
| Japan | 1.60 % | 0 | 会合通過後の様子見 |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- USD/JPY 146.60（+0.13%）：米金利小反発に伴うドル買い戻しThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- EUR/USD 1.1800（-0.04%）：材料難の往来相場The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- USD/CNY 7.1110（-0.03%）：中間値運用下の低ボラ維持The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.55/bbl | -0.24% | 在庫思惑と景気指標待ちの上値抑制 |
| Brent Crude Oil | $67.10/bbl | -0.22% | マクロ不確実性とドル動向の相殺 |
| natural gas | $3.12/MMBtu | +0.65% | 近月需給のタイト化観測 |
| Gold (physical) | $3,690.00/oz | +0.22% | 実質金利横ばい下の高値圏維持 |
| silver | $42.60/oz | +0.24% | 金連動と工業需要期待の追随 |
| copper | $4.71000/lb | +0.11% | 中国ヘッドライン待ちの自律反発 |
crypto
- ビットコイン $116,300.00（-0.13%）：イベント明けの持ち高調整The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- イーサリアム $4,515.00（-0.11%）：材料難のレンジ推移The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/24（水）米・新築住宅販売（8月）：住宅金利低下後の需要弾力性The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- 2025/09/25（木）独・IFO景況感（9月）：製造業の底打ち確認The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- 2025/09/26（金）米・PCEデフレーター（8月）：サービスインフレの粘着度The following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
- 2025/09/27（土）中国・工業利益（8月）：製造業マージンの改善度合いThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Insight Summary
- 米大型グロース一服を踏まえた分散とヘッジ厚めの継続が無難
- 欧州ディフェンシブと資源の短期相対強さ回転が良さげ
- デュレーション中立〜やや長めのmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.が妥当
- ドル小反発レンジ下でのEUR段階買い・USD/JPY逆張りが無難
- 原油戻り売り・金押し目買い, ,銅は薄めエクスポージャが良さげ
- クリプト軽めのイベント後レンジ対応が無難
English
日本語