This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/25/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC (Lithium Americas) | 7.37 | +22.63% | Lithium Development | Continued growth of reports of U.S. government investment consideration |
| NB (Niocorp Developments) | 7.31 | +13.16% | critical mineral | Inflow of funds from LAC press coverage |
| LEU (Centrus Energy) | 312.19 | +13.11% | enriched uranium | Continued buying due to reports of business expansion plans |
| PLG (Platinum Group Metals) | 2.33 | +10.95% | PGM/Resources | Platinum market high and 52-week high observed |
| SLI (Standard Lithium) | 3.78 | +9.25% | direct-extract lithium | Analyst upgrades and volume growth |
| INTC (Intel) | 33.99 | +8.87% | Semiconductor & Foundry | Apple support and TSMC cooperation observed |
| MP (MP Materials) | 77.13 | +8.28% | Rare earth magnets | Policy support associations and sector highs |
| IDR (Idaho Strategic Resources) | 32.54 | +6.65% | Gold & Rare Metals | Rebound after disclosure of management sale |
| MRVL (Marvel Technology) | 83.81 | +4.64% | Communication and AI Semiconductors | CEO bullish outlook and $5 billion share buyback |
personal impression
high lithium chainThe development is led by the
LAC'sGovernment Investment Considerationand spill over to SLI, MP, and NBpolicy driven marketRare metals and resources are strong. Rare metals and resource-based products are strong.
In semiconductors, Intel'sExternal Support Observationand Marvel'sBullish outlook + share buybacksSentiment improved in
LEUs for resources and nuclear fuel areexpansion planContinuation of tailwind of
Although overall sentiment is down, buying appears to be taking place where it has been pushed.
I have the impression that the layer that is aiming for the entry point comes in quickly.
Since economic indicators are showing strength, I personally would like to strike a good balance between gains and entries in this phase.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/25
general mood
U.S. stocks are3 days in a rowSentiment receded atStronger Growth Indicators and PCE AnticipatedThe phase of the incorporation of the retreat from the accelerated interest rate cut forecast in the Europe isSTOXX600 back downThe antagonistic market is weighed down by healthcare and capital goods and supported by materials in Japan isNikkei 225 slightly higherRe-evaluating earnings momentum with the yen weakening, and the highs resilient at Interest rates areU.S. up slightly, Germany up, JGB upSlight revision of the exchange rate ofDollar slightly rebounding, Euro slightly softening, Yuan stableContinuation of low volatility in Commodities areCrude oil continued to fall, gold slightly higherThe tug-of-war between macro and supply/demand for crypto assets in theslight depreciationPost-event equilibrium of the
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 45,947.32 | -173.96 (-0.38%) | Pre-PCE handover predominance |
| S&P 500 | 6,604.72 | -33.25 (-0.50%) | Gains on Megatech Semiconductors |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,384.70 | -113.16 (-0.50%) | high beta adjustment |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,754.93 | +124.62 (+0.27%) | Tailwind of foreign arbitrage buying and a weakening yen |
| STOXX600 | 550.22 | -3.66 (-0.66%) | Downward pressure on health care and capital goods |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.16 % | +3 | Interest rates rise again as rate cut preponderance recedes |
| Germany | 2.78 % | +2 | Spillover of high U.S. interest rates |
| Japan | 1.65 % | +1 | Factoring in interest rate observations after bid digestion |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.95 (+0.10%): U.S. interest rates stay high and stock market flows buy back the dollar.
- EUR/USD 1.1760 (-0.21%): Small Dollar Rebound Offsets Rising German Interest Rates
- usd/cny 7.1100 (+0.03%)Intermediate Value Management and Stance on Controlling Capital Outflows
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $62.15/bbl | -0.24% | Demand uncertainty and inventory speculation restraining upside |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.80/bbl | -0.22% | Tug of war between the dollar's small rebound and the supply-demand equilibrium view |
| natural gas | $3.12/MMBtu | +0.97% | Heating Demand Forecast and Supply Tightness Observation |
| Gold (physical) | $3,688.00/oz | +0.08% | Preference for safe assets under flat real interest rates |
| silver | $42.55/oz | +0.35% | Gold-linked and industrial demand associations |
| copper | $4.71000/lb | +0.17% | China Stimulus Expectations and Inventory Decline Speculation |
crypto
- Bitcoin $115,200.00 (-0.69%): Headwinds from low stock prices and a small rebound in the U.S. dollar
- Ethereum $4,480.00 (-0.44%): Alto-linked small adjustment
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/09/26 (Fri) U.S. PCE Deflator (Aug)Service Inflation Adhesion Level Check
- 2025/09/27 (Sat) China - Industrial Profit (Aug)Manufacturing Margin Improvement Level Inspection
- 2025/09/30 (Tue) U.S. Consumer Confidence (Sep): Employment Indicators and Income Expectations Confirming the Tone of the
- 2025/10/01 (Wed) U.S. ISM Manufacturing/China PMI (Sep)Directional verification of the manufacturing industry cycle
Insight Summary
- U.S. large growth lullbased onDiversification and combined futures hedgingContinuation Policy for
- Pushing rotation of Japanese stocksandHigher weight on foreign demand growthMobile allocation of
- Duration neutral to slightly long(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionEnsure resistance to straddle eventsAttitude of
- Dollar Small Rebound RangeUnder.Buy EUR phase, USD/JPY reverseRange Strategy for
- Sell oil back and buy goldCross-asset diversification stance of
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionPost-event volatility reduction period responseRisk Management of
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