This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List (based on closing price on 09/30/2025)
| name of a or the Buddha | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | volatility | theme | insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMTC (Semtech) | 71.45 | +15.28% | Semiconductor and Data Center I/O | Oppenheimer Upgrade and ACC/LPO Expectations for AI |
| BE (Bloom Energy) | 84.57 | +14.90% | Fuel Cell and Data Center Power Supply | Wyoming 900 MW Plan Reported, Supply-Demand Expectations |
| CRWV (Core Weave) | 136.85 | +11.70% | AI Cloud and GPU Rental | AI infrastructure contract with Meta for up to $14.2 billion |
| DNA (Zinco Bioworks) | 14.58 | +10.20% | synthetic biology | Pharmaceutical Sector High Flow |
| ARQQ (Arquit Quantum) | 38.75 | +9.77% | quantum cryptography | B. Lingering Effects of Riley Target Increase |
| TATT (TAT Technologies) | 44.03 | +9.28% | Aircraft Maintenance and MRO | No particular material. Trend Continuation |
| BIOA (Biomedicine) | 5.88 | +7.92% | Biomedicine | Pharmaceutical Sector High Flow |
| PFE (Pfizer) | 25.48 | +6.83% | major pharmaceutical company | Drug Price Uncertainty Recedes with TrumpRx Agreement Reports |
| MRK (Merck) | 83.93 | +6.81% | major pharmaceutical company | Associated buying of high pharmaceutical sector |
| DHR (Danaher) | 198.26 | +6.56% | Life Science Instruments | Pharmaceutical Sector High Flow |
| PATH (uipath) | 13.38 | +6.53% | RPA and agent automation | Announced partnership with OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Snowflake |
| PBYI (Puma Biotech) | 5.31 | +5.15% | Biomedicine | Continued observation of strong Nerlynx sales |
personal impression
CoreWeave x MetaThe AI cloud-related business was boosted by a large contract forUpgrading Semtechand ... andBlum Energy's Large Power Supply PlanThe funds spilled over into the The strength of the regular watch name type stocks continues to give the impression of strength.
In Health CareTrumpRx AgreementThe pharmaceutical industry as a whole is rebounding on the back of the "K" LINE's "K" LINE's "K" LINE's "K" LINE's "K" LINE. With a sense of being late to the game, we will keep a close eye on whether the theme can be maintained.
RPA'sUiPath partners with leading AIReinforcing thematics with
In general, the AI-related and health care sectors appear to be gaining traction ground.
Personally, DNA has been in a negative position for a long time, but we will see if a trend will form from here.
market insight
Analysis Date] 2025/09/30
general mood
Resurgence of risk of partial closure of U.S. government agencies at the end of the monthandDifficulties in talks over tentative budgetUncertainty high and high level of uncertainty in theDecline in U.S. Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceandStrength of JOLTS jobsDue to the contrast ofEconomic Slowdown and Employment Stickiness TwistThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
Eurozone HICP preliminary core slowdown confirmeddue toEuropean interest rate outlook easesThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
After the passage of the first interest rate cutDignitaries' Statement Silence PeriodandQuarterly and month-end rebalancing demandThe intersection of the two.
Interest rates areU.S. and Germany slightly lower duration regressionThe exchange rate The exchange rate isLow volatile range with small dollar reboundThe Products.Oil softness and gold firmer at higher pricesThe tug of war of the
Risk of delayed release of statistics during government shutdownConscious of theReturn to pre-event qualityThe following is a list of the most common problems with the "C" in the "C" column.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 46,397.89 | +217.39 (+0.47%) | Defensive and Mega Cap Buying Demand Despite Government Shutdown Risks |
| S&P 500 | 6,688.46 | +26.75 (+0.40%) | Declining consumer confidence and small easing of interest rates valuations allowed |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 22,660.01 | +68.86 (+0.30%) | Push for semiconductors and AI mainstays |
| Nikkei 225 | 45,712.34 | +152.13 (+0.33%) | Weakness of the yen and revaluation of foreign demand growth |
| STOXX600 | 558.18 | +2.66 (+0.48%) | HICP core slowdown and support for lower interest rate expectations |
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.11 % | -1 | Perception of slowing consumer confidence and month-end rebalancing demand |
| Germany | 2.74 % | -1 | Term premia retreat due to confirmation of HICP core slowdown |
| Japan | 1.64 % | 0 | Waiting for supply-demand balance and price indexes after passing the meeting |
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 146.70 (+0.27%): U.S. long-term interest rates remain high and month-end flows are buying back the dollar.
- EUR/USD 1.1780 (-0.09%): The traffic is pushed by the demand for dollars at the end of the month even though interest rates are expected to fall after HICP.
- usd/cny 7.1060 (-0.03%): Vola suppression under mid-price guidance.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $61.98/bbl | -0.19% | Uncertainty in demand and inventory observation restraining upside |
| Brent Crude Oil | $66.80/bbl | -0.07% | Offsetting the dollar trend and the supply-demand equilibrium view |
| natural gas | $3.09/MMBtu | -0.32% | Near Month Supply/Demand Lull and Temperature Outlook |
| Gold (physical) | $3,728.00/oz | -0.05% | Real interest rate sideways firmer at higher levels |
| silver | $43.95/oz | -0.34% | gold-linked beta adjustment |
| copper | $4.70000/lb | -0.04% | Range transition awaiting Chinese indicators |
crypto
- Bitcoin $114,800.00 (+0.25%): Intersection of dispersed demand and short covering under shutdown uncertainty.
- Ethereum $4,230.00 (+0.48%): Testing the upper end of the range awaiting large materials.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
- 2025/10/01 (Wed) U.S. ISM Manufacturing/China PMI (Sep): Turning point in the manufacturing cycle and the stickiness of price indexes
- 2025/10/01 (Wed) Japan - BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Agenda Key Points: nuances of the guidance and implications for supply/demand management
- 2025/10/02 (Thu) U.S. - New applications for unemployment insurance: Degree of Cracking in Labor Supply and Demand
- 2025/10/02 (Thursday) U.S. government shutdown (fiscal year switchover): Delayed release of statistics and spillover of macroeconomic uncertainties
Insight Summary
- Cryptolite Light(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionEvent and headline supportMobile operation of
- Government shutdown risk manifestedBelow.Return to quality and hedge thickerContinuation of
- U.S. large growth biasAnd maintainStage profit-taking prior to financial resultsIt is safe to use a combination of
- Duration slightly longer(at sentence-end, falling tone) indicates a confident conclusionmeeting place for assignations, drinking, etc.andbeta suppressionCombination of
- Dollar Small Rebound RangeIn.Buy EUR phase, USD/JPY reverseShort-term turnover of
- Sell oil back and buy goldCross-asset diversification of
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