This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
Stocks were mixed, while safe-haven assets and commodities held firm amid a mix of Middle East risks and concerns about U.S. tariffs pushing up prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.371 TP3T, while German and Japanese rates remained on an upward trend, widening the interest rate gap. Crude oil and metals markets gyrated higher on supply caution, while bitcoin softened to test the $100,000 mark. Markets."Rekindling inflation vs. slowing economy."This is the phase of selective movement of funds to cash and large tech and resource stocks in the face of the dichotomy of
equity
- United States of America: S&P 500 5,980.87 (-0.22%) continued to fall, weighed down by earnings premium stripping and Middle East caution. Nasdaq 19,447.41 (-0.51%), profit-taking spills over into large AI-related sectors. Dow 42,206.82 (+0.08%) is supported by defensive gains.
- Japan: Nikkei225 38,403.23 (-0.22%). Higher long-term interest rates and a lull in the yen's depreciation weighed on the market.
- Emerging Asia: Hang Seng 23,530.48 (+1.261 TP3T) rebounded on financial leadership, Shanghai Composite 3,359.90 (-0.071 TP3T) on weak policy expectations.
- Europe: stoxx600 536.53 (+0.13%). Buying in mining and utilities; aviation sector softer on higher oil prices.
- Fund flows continue to be skewed toward "U.S. megatech + resource stocks" and diversified into defensive sectors.
bond
| Country / Brand | 10-year yield | intraday price rise and fall | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.374% | -2.2bp | Risk aversion buying before index releases |
| Germany | 2.52% | +0.5bp | Heavy upside due to political uncertainty |
| Japan | 1.465% | +1.5 bp | Concerns about tight supply and demand due to the Ministry of Finance's super-long-term reduction plan |
Real interest rates have fallen in the U.S. and Germany, and Japan has been on a solo high while the preference for safe assets has increased.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- Dollar/Yen 146.05 (+0.451 TP3T): strengthening mirroring the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan.
- EUR/USD 1.1526 (+0.22%): Buybacks prevailed due to slowing European inflation.
- Dollar/Yuan 7.178: Ranging due to the authorities' intervention speculation.
The euro held up even as the dollar strengthened, and only the yen weakened further.
commodity
| commodity | current value | compared to previous day | background driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 73.91$/bbl | +0.10% | Middle East Tensions and Slowing U.S. Shale Production Increase |
| Brent crude oil | 77.23$/bbl | +0.07% | Strait of Hormuz risk manifestation |
| gold futures | 3,369.9$/oz | -0.7% | Yields Decline, Maintain Resilience |
| silver futures | 35.96$/oz | -2.6% | Adjustment due to industrial demand concerns |
| copper futures | 4.83$/lb | -0.4% | Tight inventories, but LME restrictions caution against high prices. |
| Natural gas (HH) | 3.896$/mmbtu | -2.3% | High inventory and mild temperature forecast |
crypto
- bitcoin $103,911 (-1.981 TP3T): speculative position liquidation ahead of massive options expirations.
- ethereum $2,441.93 (-4.341 TP3T): downside due to slower ETF inflows and higher volatility.
Declining risk tolerance promotes deleveraging of crypto assets in general.
Macro Event Focus
- 6/24 U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence, June: expected to be weak due to tariffs.
- 6/24 U.S.-Europe S&P Global June Preliminary PMI: Focus on the degree of inventory adjustment in the manufacturing sector.
- 6/25 U.S. May Durable Goods Orders & 1Q GDP Finalized: Stickiness in corporate capex is key.
- 6/26 U.S. May PCE deflator: point to confirm if inflation is re-accelerating.
- 6/26 German Ifo business confidence in June: hints that the European economy may or may not have bottomed out.
Insight Summary
- While risk premiums in real assets, especially oil and copper, continue to expand, U.S. long-term bonds and gold are in strong defensive demand, making tri-polar diversification in Value, Commodity, and Quality Tech effective.
- In foreign exchange, it is appropriate to continue to overweight foreign currency denominated assets due to the resurgence of yen carry.
- Crypto is event-driven, volatility remains high, and it is safe to limit short-term trading.
- If PCE re-accelerates in the near-term event, watch for a rebound in long-term bond yields → growth stock adjustment chain. Conversely, if it subsides, a scenario in which U.S. large tech gains traction again.
- In general, the "Value Defense + Theme Growth Two-Way under Inflation Watchis the optimal portfolio strategy for the time being.
Market Insights Infographic
Analysis Date: 2025/06/21
Market Overview
The current market is a complex mix of conflicting concerns: "renewed inflation" and "economic slowdown". As Middle East risks and tariff issues become more uncertain, funds are selectively moving toward safe assets and some growth areas.
general mood
Dichotomous market environment.
In the tug-of-war between inflation and economic slowdown, funds moved into cash, large tech, and resource stocks.
S&P 500
5,980.87
-0.22%
Dollar/Yen
146.05
+0.45%
WTI crude oil
$73.91
+0.10%
stock market
Global stock markets showed different movements in different regions. While there was profit-taking in the U.S., there was a financial-driven rebound in Asia. Capital continues to be weighted toward U.S. large-cap tech and resource stocks.
United States of America
S&P500とナスダックは、決算期待の剥落と中東情勢への警戒から続落。大型AI関連には利益確定売りが波及。
Japan/Europe
Japan was softer, weighed down by rising long-term interest rates. Europe was slightly higher on buying in the mining and utilities sectors.
Emerging Asian Countries
The Hong Kong Hang Seng rebounded, led by financial stocks. On the other hand, China's Shanghai Composite closed mostly flat due to low policy expectations.
債券 & 為替市場
In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries were bought due to risk aversion and yields declined. In the foreign exchange market, the direction of each currency was divided, with the yen weakening against the U.S. dollar while the euro recovered against the U.S. dollar, backed by the difference in interest rates between Japan and the U.S.
Major 10-year bond yields
Main Exchange Rates
Dollar / Yen
146.05 (+0.45%)
The market strengthened reflecting the widening interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan.
Euro / Dollar
1.1526 (+0.22%)
Buybacks prevailed due to the slowdown in European inflation.
Dollar / RMB
7.178
The range was maintained due to speculation of intervention by the authorities.
コモディティ & クリプト市場
In commodities, crude oil remained high on supply-side caution. On the other hand, crypto assets showed a clear decline in risk tolerance as position liquidation selling prevailed ahead of option expirations.
Commodity Price Fluctuation (Daily change)
Major Crypto Assets
Bitcoin (BTC)
$103,911
-1.98%
Selling to liquidate speculative positions ahead of option expiration.
Ethereum (ETH)
$2,441.93
-4.34%
Downward pressure due to slower inflows into ETFs and higher volatility.
インサイト & 今後の焦点
The market is expected to be heavily influenced by the results of key economic indicators, especially the U.S. PCE deflator. A two-pronged strategy of "value defense with inflation caution" and "thematic growth" will continue to be effective.
Macro event focus (next 3-4 business days)
6/24: 消費者信頼感 & PMI
Confirmation of business confidence in the U.S. and Europe
Focus on U.S. consumer confidence and preliminary U.S. and European PMIs. The focus will be on the impact of tariffs and the degree of inventory adjustment in the manufacturing sector.
6/25: 米国GDP & 耐久財受注
Measuring the momentum of business investment
The Q1 GDP finalization and May durable goods orders reassessed the fundamentals of the U.S. economy.
6/26: 米国PCE & 独Ifo (最重要)
The Future of Inflation
The Fed's focus on the PCE deflator is the most important factor to watch. If inflation re-accelerates, the market may adjust; if it subsides, growth shareholders may take the lead.
Portfolio Strategy
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tripolar dispersion
Diversification into Value Commodity Quality Tech is effective.
💹
exchange strategy
Yen carry revived. Continued to overweight foreign currency denominated assets.
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Crypto Strategy
Volatility remains high. Safe to limit to short term trading.
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