This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
market insight
general mood
U.S. stocks rose, led by tech S&P 500 hits new highThe long-term interest rate remained stable while rising slightly to 4.29%. Long-term interest rates remained stable while rising slightly to 4.29%, and risk appetite continued. Europe was also firm, while in Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell back. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell back while the dollar weakened against the yen and the euro strengthened against the dollar at ¥143 and $1.18, respectively. In commodity markets, crude oil and copper rebounded, and buying spread to economically sensitive assets. Overall, "moderate risk-on, equilibrium between the U.S. economy's resilience and subdued inflation".
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Dow (i.e. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) | 44,484.42 | ▼10.52 pt (-0.02 %) | Financials and defensives soft |
| S&P 500 | 6,227.42 | -29.41 pt (+0.47 %) | AI semiconductors and large tech buybacks |
| Nasdaq Composite | 20,393.13 | -190.24 pt (+0.94 %) | Driven by Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla |
| Nikkei 225 | 39,762.48 | ▼223.85 pt (-0.56 %) | Selling is dominated by a lull in yen weakness and semiconductor adjustments ([jp.investing.com][3]) |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | 541.91 | -1.63 pt (+0.30 %) | Buy bank stocks and renewable energy related ([reuters.com][4]) |
Capital Flows: Continued concentration in North American high-tech, but also diversification into Europe and emerging markets.
bond
- U.S. 10-year bond: 4.29% (+3bp) - ADP employment decline but limited recession fears.
- German 10-year bond: 2.62% (+5bp) - Yields rise on concerns of fiscal expansion.
- Japan 10-year bond: 1.43% (+4bp) - The Bank of Japan's additional interest rate hike is still under strong speculation.
The preference for safe assets is receding and real interest rates continue to rise moderately.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 143.57 | +0.13 % | Interest rate differential awareness, but dollar softness weighs on upside |
| EUR/USD | 1.1798 | -0.08 % | Eurozone inflation subdued and firm |
| USD/CNY | 7.1658 | -0.05 % | Conscious of the People's Bank of China's stance to curb yuan depreciation |
The dollar index continues its downtrend at -10% since the beginning of the year.
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $67.45/bbl | +3.1 % | OPEC+ production increase limited |
| Brent Crude Oil | $69.11/bbl | +3.0 % | Middle East risk premium recovered slightly |
| Natural gas (NG) | $3.49 /MMBtu | +2.0 % | U.S. Extreme Heat Forecast Increases Demand for Air Conditioning |
| money (written before an amount) | $3,350.55/oz | +0.41 % | Weak dollar and geopolitical hedging demand |
| silver | $36.41/oz | +0.91 % | Followed buying in the precious metals sector |
| copper | $5.20/lb | +3.01 % | Declining Inventory in China and Demand for Electric Vehicles Expected |
crypto
- bitcoin：$109,600 (+3.5 %) - approaching $110K, supported by ETF inflows.
- ethereum: $2,590 (-0.3 %) - Adjustment before lifting the large staking ban.
Risk tolerance is high, but beware of short-term volatility.
Macro Event Focus
- 7/03 U.S. June employment data (NFP), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
- 7/03 China Caixin Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 7/04 U.S. markets closed (Independence Day), ECB minutes released
- 7/05 OPEC + Ministerial Monitoring Committee (August Supply Policy Consultation)
- 7/05 Japan May Household Survey
The employment report and OPEC+ decision are likely short-term triggers for the configuration.
Insight Summary
- Relative advantage of U.S. high-tech: Uptrend continues, led by generation AI-related and semiconductors. Recommend picking up the push in index-linked ETFs.
- commodity diversification: Build inflation hedges with resource stocks and ETFs during the rebound phase of crude oil and copper.
- cheap dollar positioningLong: Selective longs in emerging market currencies are effective, along with diversification into yen and euro.
- Shorter bond durationRisk management mainly on medium-term bonds as US and European interest rates remain under upward pressure.
- Crypto is a limited weight: While BTC tests the psychological milestone again, the upside is event-driven.
Market Insights Infographic
general mood
U.S. stocks rallied, led by tech, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs. Long-term interest rates remained stable with a slight rise to 4.29%, and risk appetite continued. Europe was also firm, while in Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell back. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 fell back while the dollar weakened against the yen and the euro strengthened against the dollar at 143 yen and 1.18 dollars per euro, respectively. In commodity markets, crude oil and copper rebounded, and buying spread to economically sensitive assets. Overall, "moderate risk-on, equilibrium between U.S. economic resilience and subdued inflation.
Equity (Shares)
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
cash flow
bond
Market Overview
exchange (e.g. foreign)
| Currency Pairs | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
Market Overview
commodity
| list of articles | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day |
|---|
English
日本語