2025.7.14 Market Insight｜Nasdaq hits new highs, dollar remains strong but supported by resource prices, Palantir surges, crypto-related funds flow in

This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.

market insight

general mood

U.S. stocks remain wary of additional tariffs proposed by President The S&P 500 was slightly higher at 6,268.56 (+0.14%), while the Nasdaq hit a new daily high at 20,640.33 (+0.27%). The Dow was also steady at 44,459.65 (+0.201 TP3T), maintaining risk tolerance; the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.431 TP3T, with higher real interest rates restraining stock prices higher. Currencies strengthened against the dollar and weakened against the yen USD/JPY 147.77The euro was slightly softer at $1.167. Crude oil is slightly lower at the $66/bbl level, but copper remains high in the metals market. Sentiment is "selective risk-on, with U.S. tech and higher resources supporting the downside while factoring in tariff warnings.

equity

Capital flows are concentrated in U.S. high-tech and resource-related stocks, while European stocks are cautious.

bond

• U.S. 10-year bond 4.432 % (+0.3 bp) - Interest rates continue to rise with CPI ante
• German 10-year bond 2.720 % (+2 bp) - Yields rise on inflation concerns
• Japan 10-year bond 1.577 % (+7.6 bp)-BoJ hawkishness strengthened

Real interest rates rose slightly due to limited preference for safe assets.

exchange (e.g. foreign)

Commodities (closing price/day before)

crypto

• bitcoin$122,838 (+1.9 %) - Record highs, ETF inflows continue
• ethereum：$2,996.36 (+0.8 %) - firm on fee reform expectations

Crypto assets have been on an upswing, albeit with high volatility.

Macro Event Focus

• July 15 (Tuesday) U.S. June CPI, Eurozone ZEW business confidence, OPEC Monthly Report
• 7/16 (Wed.) U.S. June PPI, FOMC meeting minutes, U.K. CPI
• July 17 (Thursday) U.S. initial unemployment insurance applications, U.S. housing starts and construction permits
• Friday, 7/18 Japan June Consumer Price Index (National), China Q2 GDP

Insight Summary

1. Relative advantage of U.S. high-tech: Strong appetite for push-buying even at all-time highs, followed by index-linked ETFs.
2. Diversification into energy and copperThe company is gradually adding to its natural resource stocks to hedge against inflation against the backdrop of rising crude oil and copper prices.
3. Currency management in a strong dollar environmentThe yen and euro are likely to remain weak, which is a tailwind for exporters.
4. Bonds are mid-term duration: Controlling interest rate risk mainly in the 3-6 year zone with the US 10 year yield capped at 4.4% level.
5. Crypto is a cautious buildup.BTC: BTC consolidates at $120,000 level, trailing stop set for risk of sharp decline

Sector and Individual Issue Considerations

Sector Overview

• The top contributor to the increase was Communication Services (+0.71 TP3T)The film "Superman" was a hit at the box office. The strong box office performance of the movie "Superman" was a tailwind,Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery is in tow.
• Worst is. Energy (-1.2%)Oil stocks were sold off as WTI temporarily fell to -2.21 TP3T on the President's "additional tariffs on Russian oil purchases" comment.

Featured Rising Issues

Watch List Summary (2025/07/14 Closing Price Basis)

Market Insights Infographic