This macro-market analysis is based on the fact that I (@mifseeThis is a record of my personal study to gain a bird's eye view of the daily macro environment when making investment decisions in the U.S. market. The contents may contain errors or differences from the actual situation. Please be aware of this before reading this report.
Notable Rising Issues (from watch list)
Watch List Summary (2025/07/30, based on closing price)
| description | theme | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | rate of return | Personal note Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TER | Semiconductor Testing | 107.65 | +18.88 % | Favorable Q2 results and AI demand contribution |
| PEN | medical equipment | 254.21 | +11.91 % | Q2 Beat Guidanceup |
| SATS | satellite communication | 32.82 | +11.22 % | 52-week high and frequency asset valuation |
| DAVE | digital banking | 240.20 | +9.07 % | Continued earnings expectations? |
| ALAB | AI Interconnect | 128.87 | +8.83 % | MS raised its price target |
| HIMS | telehealth | 65.53 | +8.73 % | Reported the company's combined GLP-1 weight loss treatment efficacy. |
| BE | fuel cell | 37.62 | +8.26 % | UBS Upgrade Leads to Buying Spree |
| MRVL | AI Semiconductor | 81.74 | +7.07 % | Collaboration announcement for AI |
| OKLO | small nuclear reactor | 75.63 | +6.51 % | Licensing moves forward with completion of NRC evaluation |
| CRDO | AI Connection Chip | 116.01 | +6.06 % | Expanding demand for AI data centers |
| RKLB | space launch | 46.44 | +6.05 % | Continuing to grow with price target raised. |
market insight
general mood
The U.S. markets remained directionless and high after the FOMC meeting. Although Chairman Powell's comments, which did not hint at the timing of a rate cut, caused interest rates to pause their decline, the S&P 500 ended the day's rally with only a slight decline. The Nasdaq was slightly higher, and the inflow of tech-centered funds continued, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising to 4.37% (+2 bp from the previous day), and the dollar firmer against the yen and the euro. European stocks were mostly flat, while Japanese stocks were slightly lower. Overall, "selective risk-on under high price pressure" continued.
equity
| index | closing price (stock exchange, etc.) | compared to previous day | background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (i.e. Dow-Jones) | 44,461.28 | -177.85 pt (-0.40%) | Selling of stocks with disappointing financial results prevails |
| S&P 500 | 6,362.90 | -6.36 pt (-0.10%) | Adjusting positions while waiting for FOMC meeting |
| National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations | 21,129.67 | +21.13 pt (+0.10%) | Semiconductor-driven buying |
| Nikkei 225 | 40,654.70 | -19.85 pt (-0.05%) | Strong Yen Alert and Profit Fixing |
| STOXX600 | 550.24 | -0.12 pt (-0.02%) | Waiting to see how the financial results will turn out. |
Funds are weighted toward U.S. megatech. Europe and Japan are waiting for materials to move higher.
bond
| home (i.e. hometown, home country) | 10-year yield | Change from previous day (bp) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 4.372% | +2 | Powell's remarks set back expectations of interest rate cuts |
| Germany | 2.71% | +3 | Rising moderately due to inflation concerns |
| Japan | 1.563% | +0 | BOJ Normalization observation continues |
Buyers of safe assets and factors that raise interest rates are competing with each other, and only U.S. Treasuries are supported by real demand.
exchange (e.g. foreign)
- usd/jpy 149.33 (+0.62%)U.S. Dollar: Dollar buying advantage due to high U.S. interest rates
- EUR/USD 1.1551 (-0.38%)FOMC: Dollar strengthens and Euro softens after FOMC meeting
- usd/cny 7.1764 (+0.02%)Reflects the stability of the People's Bank of China's mid-term price
commodity
| list of articles | Closing Price (USD) | compared to previous day | driver (of a vehicle) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 70.00 /bbl | +1.14% | U.S.-Russia Tension and Demand Expectations |
| Brent Crude Oil | 73.24 /bbl | +1.01% | same as above |
| gold futures | 3,352.80 /oz | -0.8% | Adjustment before FOMC |
| physical silver | 36.97 /oz | -3.2% | Outflow of funds due to risk appetite |
| Copper (Comex) | ≈5.60 /lb | -17% | U.S. 50% Plunged due to tariff reduction |
crypto
- Bitcoin 117,100 USD (-0.8%)FOMC: temporarily below 116K after the FOMC meeting, but the price has been resisting the decline.
- Ethereum 3,807 USD (+1.0%)The fund circulation to large alts continues, with a mix of strong and weak sentiment.
Macro Event Focus (7/31-8/2)
- 7/31 U.S. Q2 GDP & PCE Deflators: confirm balance between growth and inflation
- 7/31 Eurozone Q2 GDP Preliminary Report and CPI Preliminary Report: Verify whether the bottom is in or out
- Aug. 1 Deadline for invoking tariffs on the U.S. and the EU: risk of volatility if final agreement fails
- 8/2 US ISM Manufacturing: Focus on degree of improvement in orders and inventories
Insight Summary
- Stocks: continued concentration of funds in U.S. megatech, but risk of higher volatility at higher prices. Push is centered on AI and telecom services.
- Bonds: U.S. 10-year 4.37% approaching the upper end of its medium-term range. Duration neutral, yield differentials on German bonds.
- Forex: The dollar is strengthening, but intervention is still warranted at the ¥149 level. Long euro/short yen is the best bet for the short term.
- Commodities: Crude oil is firm due to geopolitical risks, but sell off in the low $70s. Gold should be bought at the $3,300 level.
- Crypto: BTC sees upside resistance at $120,000; ETH looks to break through $4,000.
English
日本語